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Fall/Winter 2020/21 Banter Thread


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4 hours ago, nwohweather said:

It’s 80° and partly sunny at my house right now and I am spending the holidays with freezing rain haha awesome

Almost like clockwork once January hits I start looking at first signs of spring in the Deep South. Still a few weeks away but by late January the first signs start appearing along the gulf coast. February and march are fun to watch it take off from Deep South into places like Virginia/Kentucky 

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What an epic storm. We need a repeat. Over 20" locally and the first in a series of storms that plastered Toronto over the following 2 weeks with over 40" of snow. They had to call the army. I was a little kid so I don't remember but I do recall being home for a week from school lol. 

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It wasn’t the heaviest rates but the duration of accumulating snow was 54 hours at Chicago.  

I remember the snow was behind schedule because of the slow movement, so like a true weenie with no patience, I drove about 30 miles south so I could see it snow.   Hahaha.  

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16 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

What an epic storm. We need a repeat. Over 20" locally and the first in a series of storms that plastered Toronto over the following 2 weeks with over 40" of snow. They had to call the army. I was a little kid so I don't remember but I do recall being home for a week from school lol. 

Chicago, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Detroit and Toronto all had 10"+... some of those places way more than 10".  What other storm does that?

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Chicago, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Detroit and Toronto all had 10"+... some of those places way more than 10".  What other storm does that?

A few other things that made it special. it was coming on the heals of the most snowless start to the snow season on record.  It was also the start of an epic 2 week stretch of snow, and unlike the numerous bouts of heavy snow the past few decades, growing up in the 1990s it was a blah decade for snow in Detroit. So by mid January 1999 needless to say it was something I had never seen before.

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Chicago, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Detroit and Toronto all had 10"+... some of those places way more than 10".  What other storm does that?

Probably the only spread the wealth storm we've had in the last 25 years. Read an article that regarded the Blizzard of 99 as being one of Chicago's worst blizzards ever. 

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10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

A few other things that made it special. it was coming on the heals of the most snowless start to the snow season on record.  It was also the start of an epic 2 week stretch of snow, and unlike the numerous bouts of heavy snow the past few decades, growing up in the 1990s it was a blah decade for snow in Detroit. So by mid January 1999 needless to say it was something I had never seen before.

Exactly

Before that storm, I really couldn't comprehend in my mind what a foot and a half or 2 foot snowstorm would look like, because I had never seen one before.  The first one of that scale is always more special.  If I had been where I am now for GHD 2011, that one would've dethroned 1999, but I wasn't, so 1999 is still my personal favorite.

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29 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Probably the only spread the wealth storm we've had in the last 25 years. Read an article that regarded the Blizzard of 99 as being one of Chicago's worst blizzards ever. 

1999 certainly ranks highly for Chicago snowstorms. 

I think it's hard to argue against GHD 2011 being the most impressive snowstorm in Chicago since snowfall records began.  It's a little short of the largest storm on record, but the combination of snow total and winds is something that I'm not sure the city has seen any other time in the past 150 years or so.  If something like 12/15/1987 had lasted a longer amount of time, that could've given GHD a run for its money.  It had very intense conditions for a while but the total wasn't too impressive.

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2 hours ago, slow poke said:

https://www.freep.com/in-depth/news/local/michigan/2021/01/03/michigan-winter-festivals-climate-change/3954384001/
 

I saw this posted on another site, good example of how Michigan winters are changing and how it’s effecting some areas and sports in the state.

I read this article yesterday and its a complete joke. The author is well known to be very agenda based. They recycle the same basic article every handful of years during a mild winter, have been since the mid 1990s, just change the dates and stuff. It's full of misinformation. They always use the generic line "the past 5 or 10 years" which in this case includes winters where MI was covered in record snow or ice.

 

Are Michigan's winters warming somewhat? Yes. But snowfall is increasing at most Michigan climate sites. The article says winters are warming faster than summers which is actually 100% backwards lol. It talked about some snowmobile race in Sault Ste Marie in 2018 not having ice. Lol the Winter of 2017-18 featured an average temperature BELOW normal in SSM and while there was a late February thaw there was tons of snow and ice. I go to the up North every Winter and see it for myself. BS media hype full of twists is why so many people unfortunately don't believe in climate change.

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15 minutes ago, luckyweather said:


Not to be mean, not knowing the guy at all, but my mind immediately went to wondering if some new leadership may be the cure for that office.

Hmm.   They don't strike me as a subpar office (the performance on the recent storm notwithstanding) but perhaps somebody living in their cwa would have a different take. 

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31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hmm.   They don't strike me as a subpar office (the performance on the recent storm notwithstanding) but perhaps somebody living in their cwa would have a different take. 

I spent 23 year living in that area, leaving in 2010. (Granted, only 10-12 of those was I old enough to understand or enjoy weather).

From the time I started following closely, 2002-2003ish, I felt that the office was solid. Every office fumbles a storm once in awhile, be it missed couplets that don't get tornado warned, or a 10" snowstorm that doesn't get a headline until 6" are down and then gets just an advisory, things are bound to get missed.  

But, as I said, I have been in LOT territory for 10 years now, so things may have slipped in the last decade. 

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Hmm.   They don't strike me as a subpar office (the performance on the recent storm notwithstanding) but perhaps somebody living in their cwa would have a different take. 

To be fair my anecdotal feeling is from this past year or two. Several of the severe threats in the spring/summer they didn’t discuss, warnings were late or non existent, etc.

We have a handful of mission critical “properties” in the ILX cwa, tors are an annual threat and we get a hit or near hit pretty much every year. While I live in LOT I read the ilx afd’s daily during severe season, it’s just one of those things where you can just feel something is up. Maybe it was covid issues etc manifesting in the office operations, maybe I was being too critical. I don’t mean to be too hard on them/the guy, probably shouldn’t have said anything.
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Hmm.   They don't strike me as a subpar office (the performance on the recent storm notwithstanding) but perhaps somebody living in their cwa would have a different take. 

To be fair my anecdotal feeling is from this past year or two. Several of the severe threats in the spring/summer they didn’t discuss, warnings were late or non existent, etc.

We have a handful of mission critical “properties” in the ILX cwa, tors are an annual threat and we get a hit or near hit pretty much every year. While I live in LOT I read the ilx afd’s daily during severe season, it’s just one of those things where you can just feel something is up. Maybe it was covid issues etc manifesting in the office operations, maybe I was being too critical. I don’t mean to be too hard on them/the guy, probably shouldn’t have said anything.
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7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I read this article yesterday and its a complete joke. The author is well known to be very agenda based. They recycle the same basic article every handful of years during a mild winter, have been since the mid 1990s, just change the dates and stuff. It's full of misinformation. They always use the generic line "the past 5 or 10 years" which in this case includes winters where MI was covered in record snow or ice.

 

Are Michigan's winters warming somewhat? Yes. But snowfall is increasing at most Michigan climate sites. The article says winters are warming faster than summers which is actually 100% backwards lol. It talked about some snowmobile race in Sault Ste Marie in 2018 not having ice. Lol the Winter of 2017-18 featured an average temperature BELOW normal in SSM and while there was a late February thaw there was tons of snow and ice. I go to the up North every Winter and see it for myself. BS media hype full of twists is why so many people unfortunately don't believe in climate change.

I believe it was said somewhere in this forum recently the “Detroit” area is currently in its warmest 5 year stretch when combining them. Not sure if that’s talking about just winter or the whole year though. I’m thinking after how this winter has started out it might be 6th? I’m not a stat guy but I can tell you from someone who has owned a home in northern Michigan on a large lake for 20 years now and spends most weekends and holidays there that the winters have changed. The lake ice is taking longer to get safe, on average it was the first couple weeks of January, lately it’s been late January even early February. Snowfall average has slowly been declining also according to the NWS out of Gaylord.

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33 minutes ago, slow poke said:

I believe it was said somewhere in this forum recently the “Detroit” area is currently in its warmest 5 year stretch when combining them. Not sure if that’s talking about just winter or the whole year though. I’m thinking after how this winter has started out it might be 6th? I’m not a stat guy but I can tell you from someone who has owned a home in northern Michigan on a large lake for 20 years now and spends most weekends and holidays there that the winters have changed. The lake ice is taking longer to get safe, on average it was the first couple weeks of January, lately it’s been late January even early February. Snowfall average has slowly been declining also according to the NWS out of Gaylord.

 I am the one who said that lol. I was just looking up random stats. The 5 consecutive DF were tied with 1929-33 for the warmest 5 consecutive DJFs (really thanks to 3 mild winters). it was not near a record for warmest 5 consecutive "cold seasons" (NDJFM).  In the days of Xmacis the stat buff can literally find anything for any Hand picked metric.  The previous 2 winters before that 5 year stretch blew away, and I mean blew away, all records for snow depth at Detroit as well. They were far and away the most severe back-to-back winters on record when you combine cold and snowdepth. The 1970s didn't come close for snowdepth. All of that is within 7 years. All in all the 2010s winters at Detroit were colder than the 1990s, 1950s, & 1930s and tied with the 1880s. 

 

As for cold/snow, Gaylord doesn't have a steady climate record, but here is a look at Detroit, Alpena, and Marquette winter temp and snow trends over the last 100 years. The regression line is in red. A very slight increase in temp at Detroit and Alpena and a noticeable DECREASE in temp.at Marquette (site change?). All 3 have an increase in snow.

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slowpoke- 

While it's interesting to see trends the last 100 years, some might say that's too long of a period of record. Rather than cherry picking a time frame (anytime you read an exaggerated article on global warming you will notice they start the graph in 1970, this is because the 1970s were the coldest winters on record and will skew a chart to make a temp increase look more extreme)... Let's just do the 30 year "norms" that the national weather service uses. Here are the trends the last 30 years for those same 3 cities.

At Detroit temperatures are nearly unmoving and snowfall is increasing. Add Alpena, there's a very slight increase in temperature and a very slight decrease in snowfall. At Marquette, there continues to be a cooling trend in temperatures along with a very slight decrease in snowfall.

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The problem with using lake ice as a gauge for winter temperatures is that a mild December will make for late ice thickness no matter what the rest of the winter brings. You could have a mild December and frigid January and February and the thick ice will still be late coming on. There’s been a lot of mild December’s in the past 10 years. I can think of 2011,2012,2014,2015 along with the last 3 December’s.
 

The other point is that if you take an inland lake like Houghton Lake and you have a cold December then by January 1st, the ice will be plenty thick enough for winter activities. If that cold December is followed by a “mild” January and February, the ice will still remain thick enough for outdoor activities because unless it’s an extreme situation, a “mild” January at Houghton Lake isn’t going to melt ice that is already thick. I’ll bet the ice there was very thick after the cold December and early January of 2017-2018. I’ll also bet that when the very mild 2nd half of January and mild February came, that the ice was still thick enough to go on because of the early season cold. So, that winter would be remembered as a good winter for ice on the lake even though half of the winter was mild.

One could argue that December’s have been milder due to less early season cold available with less sea ice in the Arctic but I have a hard time with that because when the pattern supports cold(2017 for example) it can be very cold as we saw that year. In the end, I think the mild December’s have been more of a product of the shift to warmer waters in the North Pacific that occurred around 2012. I think that’s also a reason for the quieter severe weather seasons overall since then as well but that’s a discussion for another time.

 

 

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