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uofmiami

October 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

There are a lot of clouds to the north and west of Philadelphia, most of New Jersey and NYC’s northern and western suburbs. Tomorrow will see more sunshine there.

Don, is this going to be a "dirty" warm up, in the sense that while it will be warm, we wont be getting much sunshine?

I will be back on Long Island this afternoon.

 

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36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, is this going to be a "dirty" warm up, in the sense that while it will be warm, we wont be getting much sunshine?

I will be back on Long Island this afternoon.

 

We are getting a late October version of our recent summer warm ups. Clouds, high dew points for this time of year, and onshore flow. Same old pattern with the big ridge parked near New England.

 

KEWR   GFS MOS GUIDANCE   10/19/2020  1200 UTC                      
 DT /OCT  19/OCT  20                /OCT  21                /OCT  22 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    58          74          63          76    64 
 TMP  64 64 61 60 60 60 61 68 72 71 68 67 66 65 66 71 74 73 70 67 67 
 DPT  49 51 52 53 55 57 59 61 61 61 62 62 63 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 62 
 CLD  BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK OV OV BK 
 WDR  14 15 14 13 11 11 15 19 22 23 10 04 06 07 14 19 20 19 19 21 29 
 WSP  05 06 04 03 02 01 03 04 05 05 03 02 02 02 03 05 08 08 06 04 03 

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we get some westerly component to the sfc flow wednesday so ewr might have a shot at 80

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

2nd big snowfall October in a row for the Great Falls area. 
 

Time Series Summary for Great Falls Area, MT (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Snowfall 
Missing Count
1 1925 18.5 0
2 2019 17.0 0
3 1975 16.6 0
4 1919 15.5 0
5 2020 14.2 13

Des Moines, Iowa with 7 inches of snow this morning 

 

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9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Didn't even see a single WWA.

I thought the same thing unless I missed the warnings/advisories over the weekend?

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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Crazy! Euro now has 6-8 for MSP tomorrow evening 

 

Off to a nice start here

 

1603519200-aYjFrKZ0flg.png

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wonder if this will be another winter of "the cold and snow is 10-15 days away"

That would be just fine--

If the pandemic gets worse, as currently predicted it will, we need all the help we can get

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6 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

That would be just fine--

If the pandemic gets worse, as currently predicted it will, we need all the help we can get

Yep, honestly a warm winter this year wouldn’t be a bad thing (although in a Nina the cold is usually just dislocated west). But like most Ninas we will have to hope the snow happens in December and we get some help from the NAO. If not it’s a repeat of last year with an endless cutter parade. 

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, is this going to be a "dirty" warm up, in theY sense that while it will be warm, we wont be getting much sunshine?

I will be back on Long Island this afternoon.

 

Yes, this is correct. That's why the temperature will likely peak in the lower 70s this week rather than the upper 70s or even lower 80s.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Des Moines, Iowa with 7 inches of snow this morning 

That area was in a perfect spot to take advantage of the strong block near Greenland this month. The strong WAR seems to have kept the TPV locked in along the west side of Hudson Bay. So a strong -NAO/-AO isn’t much of a help for us if the WAR is too amplified.

FBBFA369-1BB0-43C0-80EC-749E1F0A6E88.gif.44038d3a530d6f2605157670f605b5a2.gif

 

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33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That area was in a perfect spot to take advantage of the strong block near Greenland this month. The strong WAR seems to have kept the TPV locked in along the west side of Hudson Bay. So a strong -NAO/-AO isn’t much of a help for us if the WAR is too amplified.

FBBFA369-1BB0-43C0-80EC-749E1F0A6E88.gif.44038d3a530d6f2605157670f605b5a2.gif

 

Until further notice it looks mild here with winter in the upper Midwest. The good news is Canada looks cold so hopefully it builds a base there.

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Until further notice it looks mild here with winter in the upper Midwest. The good news is Canada looks cold so hopefully it builds a base there.

For us, we'll need to see the SE ridge get beaten back and hope for some arctic blocking.  Otherwise it's cutter city.

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

For us, we'll need to see the SE ridge get beaten back and hope for some arctic blocking.  Otherwise it's cutter city.

It’s October so I don’t expect some perfect snow pattern lol. Perhaps when the mjo moves into 7/8 we see more of a colder pattern to start November.  
 

As of now, just a typical Niña pattern. I do think it’s a good sign to see Canada cold and warm waters off the west coast. 

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58 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Until further notice it looks mild here with winter in the upper Midwest. The good news is Canada looks cold so hopefully it builds a base there.

Yeah, looks like this warmer WAR pattern should persist at least into the last week of October.


197FB9F5-1B8E-4BB9-A214-B5CDD54E11C3.thumb.png.5326b55ad228d36d563c59b5beaeeada.png

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, looks like this warmer WAR pattern should persist at least into the last week of October.


197FB9F5-1B8E-4BB9-A214-B5CDD54E11C3.thumb.png.5326b55ad228d36d563c59b5beaeeada.png

Are those the free maps? Looks good. 

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