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Windspeed

Tropical Storm Beta

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Going ahead with a thread for 90L. It already has the appearance on visible in the lower level cloud field of possessing a closed surface low. This may get classified by this evening and be a landfall threat in Mexico or possibly S. Texas. Another slow mover and flooding threat.62ecc397b70375b9d7777f9741daf0d3.gif&key=04001ea7f846f99ac1c03b03bb2ad597c582ff5f706a240abf33dc21ca22aec3

 

 

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It's already showing some promising formations. The only real threat to it's development is it's proximity to the shore. That didn't stop Sally though. It will be interesting to see if this race with 98L to become Wilfred. 

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Looks like the GFS wants to bring 90L into the northern Gulf coast as a TS this weekend. I haven't really looked deeply at the shear, but this might be one that could do something given the SST profile and moisture available. First look is that the shear won't be outrageous? 

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Yep, GFS actually brings it near to where sally made landfall, stalls it out, then loops back SW. I think a wide range of track possibilities are on the table. Models definitely sniffing this one out though, unlike sally 

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37 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Well that's not good.
ecf2cef4ca5054435378161c5ecd9cc3.gif

funny how euro shows storms weak like laura and sally..  it's showing this storm weak as well uh oh...

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funny how euro shows storms weak like laura and sally..  it's showing this storm weak as well uh oh...

I don't really pay the ops too much mind for intensity. Sure, it's eye-opening when they go bonkers on a particular system. You do want it to show a deep versus shallow feature, especially in the mid-levels. But generally the global ops have underperformed on intensity for systems that have not yet developed this year. Of course the TC models handle that better once a TCG has occurred however, which what they are better designed for.
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41 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
50 minutes ago, nycwinter said:
funny how euro shows storms weak like laura and sally..  it's showing this storm weak as well uh oh...

 

I don't really pay the ops too much mind for intensity. Sure, it's eye-opening when they go bonkers on a particular system. You do want it to show a deep versus shallow feature, especially in the mid-levels. But generally the global ops have underperformed on intensity for systems that have not yet developed this year. Of course the TC models handle that better once a TCG has occurred however, which what they are better designed for.

I only use ops before a storm forms to find potential. When systems show up consistently on the ops, as this has, it usually means there’s a good chance for development. For intensity, they are good to look at for trends, strengthening vs weakening, once a system has formed, but not for actual intensity 

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Recon is scheduled for today. By the time they get there, this may be a depression or even a TS.

Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better 
organized this morning in association with a well-defined low 
pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. 
Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for 
development and, if this recent development trend continues, 
a tropical depression or a tropical could form later today. The 
low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for 
the next day or so before moving slowly northward to 
northeastward on Friday and Saturday.  An Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance 
this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


1c29dedd4252250279c04e3e839d0233.gif

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Recon is scheduled for today. By the time they get there, this may be a depression or even a TS.

Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better 
organized this morning in association with a well-defined low 
pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. 
Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for 
development and, if this recent development trend continues, 
a tropical depression or a tropical could form later today. The 
low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for 
the next day or so before moving slowly northward to 
northeastward on Friday and Saturday.  An Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance 
this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


1c29dedd4252250279c04e3e839d0233.gif

I am sure that this year tropically will be studied and restudied by meteorology students but it is amazing to me how when conditions are "tweaked" by just a little bit, like this year, so many of the thunderstorm complexes develop into something that has to be watched. 

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It also looks like a broad area of rotation in a larger trough. It would not surprise me to see center formation in the NE envelope, as some models have predicted. That blowup there this morning seems consistent and less pulse like. It may be able to induce pressure falls and eventually become the dominant center. Waiting on visible this am. Overall it’s a healthy looking system, probably will become at least a TD today 

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Though conditions are generally favorable now, some strong southerly shear looks to be present the further north the system gets in the gulf in a few days. I think that’s why we’re seeing some modeling show a sharp bend to the left, depicting a shallow system caught in low level steering flow. Too early to tell, but the long term prognosis of this disturbance does not look ideal for significant intensification over the long run

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90L looks to have several areas of vorticity along the axis of the elongated surface trough. However, in the last three or four hours, it looks like a dominate vorticity maximum is taking over along the southwest extension of the trough. Really need recon. Somewhere in this mess may be a closed surface circulation. If it happens to be under that more dominate mid level vort max, we may have ourselves a TC.
408c257ff96c9bfb65a0b659dcd8573a.gif

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12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

90L looks to have several areas of vorticity along the axis of the elongated surface trough. However, in the last three or four hours, it looks like a dominate vorticity maximum is taking over along the southwest extension of the trough. Really need recon. Somewhere in this mess may be a closed surface circulation. If it happens to be under that more dominate mid level vort max, we may have ourselves a TC.
408c257ff96c9bfb65a0b659dcd8573a.gif

Need recon for sure. Slowly getting its act together. With generally favorable conditions this thing could ramp up quicker than forecast by models to do so. It already seems ahead of the curve 

Hard to tell but looking at LL clouds undershooting the middle area of vorticity you outlined makes me believe that MAY be the dominant center. See a lot of north moving clouds to the east of the high convective tops, maybe some west to east moving clouds below it. Very hard to tell, last ASCAT made it seem like center would be further south but obviously fluid at this point

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Might be semantics but I kind of hope recon does find a TS beyond just a classified depression. Reason being that there doesn't appear to be any reason why this won't eventually get named as it looks to be getting better and better organized. However it's quite possible the EATL subtropical system will gain enough organization by 5 PM AST to get named as it is already a vigorous subtropical circulation with TS force winds in the eastern semicircle. Granted, data is data, but 90L could become a real big problem for someone on the GOM coast and I'd rather it get a legitimate seasonal name that could be retired if an unfortunate bad scenario unfolds.

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For globals lolz, the GFS has 3 TC in the Gulf/Bay of Campeche between now and mid next week.


.

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The environment down the line for this one is not especially conducive. While models do show development, I’ll be surprised if this becomes more than a minimal cane. Fropa in a few days will introduce dry, stable air into the area in association with 20-30kts of shear. 

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