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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

You’re a lock 

Thanks! I hope so. I'm trying really hard not to look at any models because I don't want to get caught up in the highs and lows of changes every 6 hours. haha

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RGEM showing an interesting event in the mid range. LES on the back of robust screamer that clips just to our north. RGEM is insisting the winds will be N-NE? Which seems all wrong- these events usually have a SW wind? Anyway, snow signature along south shore of Erie all the way to Cleveland. image.thumb.png.08425b738433edee343a9747c87d4f5e.png

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Cold front blasts across region late Sunday afternoon into early
Sunday evening. Cold air advection will quickly switch rain to snow
by Sunday evening first over the hills of western NY into the higher
terrain of the Southern Tier, but eventually all areas (even lower
elevations) will see snow by late evening into the early overnight.
Widespread precip will end in the evening, but the deep cold trough
with deeper moisture and sharply increasing over-water instability
leading to lake equilibrium levels/inversion heights rising toward
15kft will result in *at least* moderate intensity lake effect
snowfall for areas favored by northwest winds Sunday evening
through late Sunday night. Will be a multiband regime, but there
continues to be hints of upstream connections off Lake Huron
and Georgian Bay which will boost intensity than what would
typically occur in multiband setup. Several inches of snow is
looking more likely Sunday night over western Southern Tier and
also vcnty of the Tug Hill east of Lake Ontario. Another plus
is, at least right now, forecast soundings show uniform winds
for the depth of the lake convective layer, thus minimal shear
to disrupt the lake effect. Strong winds in that layer could
displace the snow showers farther inland as well and may even
lead to a bit of blowing snow as temps fall into the 20s
overnight. Will continue to mention this potential snow in the
HWO. Adding to the wintry feel will be wind chill values to
start the day Monday in the teens and lower 20s. Brrr.
Snow showers will be around on Monday, but as upper level trough
moves east of the region, limited deeper moisture and some
subsidence/drying will likely diminish intensity compared to Sunday
night. Does appear lake effect will flare up again late Monday into
Monday night, this time mostly over Tug Hill closer to departing
trough and colder air.

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7 hours ago, sferic said:

It brings out the kid in us with memories of youth and how magical snow is.

What I don't like is after the snow moves out and the sun comes out...

 

The anticipation and storm itself is the rush, when it's over it;s a letdown of sorts unless there is another event right in back of it

That's what makes lake effect country (esp CNY) interesting for snow freaks. Further east, after a storm it usually clears out and gets sunny.  Around here it often sets up round 2...the LES...which is sometimes better than the synoptic snow.  

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1 hour ago, Flying MXZ said:

imageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486cNorthern DELCO. 

A5FE66C2-B013-482C-B2C5-C344B69B9E0E.png

Off topic.... what cameras are these?? Recently had my dog stolen (we did get him back btw) I bought a pack of Arlo pro 3 on prime day after some family recommendations but jury is still out 

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25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

First lake effect map of the season..

StormTotalSnowWeb (2).png

Time to dust off the KBUF snow map adjustment algo for areas not on the Tug in CNY (divide by 2 or 3)?  ;) 

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25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

First lake effect map of the season..

StormTotalSnowWeb (2).png

So if you look at the GFS for that timeframe The LES bands are far more west than being depicted by the NWS map. In a NW flow the tug is normally missed and Rochester to Syracuse is in the crosshairs. I’m confused by this 

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22 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So if you look at the GFS for that timeframe The LES bands are far more west than being depicted by the NWS map. In a NW flow the tug is normally missed and Rochester to Syracuse is in the crosshairs. I’m confused by this 

Well at first the flow looks more"westerly" before veering NW..But due to the proximity of the LP the tug sees some wrap around..These bands obviously tend to be stronger over the higher elevations, not to mention the change over will be much quicker..A lot depends on when the Low jumps the coast.. We'll have to wait and see what SR guidance shows..

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12 (1).png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13 (1).png

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Rgem for Sunday..
946047414_ed6ff092-41ae-4e5f-aa4e-6cd5b6b8139e(1).gif.71b60f1729869381c9362f4b64b7161c.gif&key=a3849aafaf6f329115b2dc18f57a0127975e593efaf2e92d6356a7f7029d7e55
RLMAO, all rain till the last few frames. I just wanna see some flakes as its still quite early here for any appreciable accumulations but I'll definitely take it, but I doubt we see anything before Thanksgiving.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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I dont think we're anywhere near cold enough for serious accumulations anyway unless Sun-mondays event happens primarily during the evening and throughout the night as temps dont get much lower than the lower 30's and thats at night as well so we'll see I suppose....

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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5 hours ago, wolfie09 said:
Cold front blasts across region late Sunday afternoon into early
Sunday evening. Cold air advection will quickly switch rain to snow
by Sunday evening first over the hills of western NY into the higher
terrain of the Southern Tier, but eventually all areas (even lower
elevations) will see snow by late evening into the early overnight.
Widespread precip will end in the evening, but the deep cold trough
with deeper moisture and sharply increasing over-water instability
leading to lake equilibrium levels/inversion heights rising toward
15kft will result in *at least* moderate intensity lake effect
snowfall for areas favored by northwest winds Sunday evening
through late Sunday night. Will be a multiband regime, but there
continues to be hints of upstream connections off Lake Huron
and Georgian Bay which will boost intensity than what would
typically occur in multiband setup. Several inches of snow is
looking more likely Sunday night over western Southern Tier and
also vcnty of the Tug Hill east of Lake Ontario. Another plus
is, at least right now, forecast soundings show uniform winds
for the depth of the lake convective layer, thus minimal shear
to disrupt the lake effect. Strong winds in that layer could
displace the snow showers farther inland as well and may even
lead to a bit of blowing snow as temps fall into the 20s
overnight. Will continue to mention this potential snow in the
HWO. Adding to the wintry feel will be wind chill values to
start the day Monday in the teens and lower 20s. Brrr.
Snow showers will be around on Monday, but as upper level trough
moves east of the region, limited deeper moisture and some
subsidence/drying will likely diminish intensity compared to Sunday
night. Does appear lake effect will flare up again late Monday into
Monday night, this time mostly over Tug Hill closer to departing
trough and colder air.

Yeah, I'll remain skeptical with this next set-up but it looks like the NWS is all go on our first decent event of the season, wow!  I still don't know where these temps their talking about are coming from cause I dont see it on any of the models, H850's get to a mere -6C perhaps we flirt with -9C for a few hrs but then we quickly warm, idk I guess we wait and see....

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5 hours ago, Syrmax said:

That's what makes lake effect country (esp CNY) interesting for snow freaks. Further east, after a storm it usually clears out and gets sunny.  Around here it often sets up round 2...the LES...which is sometimes better than the synoptic snow.  

So true! Thanks for the reminder. While places outside of the lakes see sun and the roads slushing up, we can keep the fun going.

5 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So if you look at the GFS for that timeframe The LES bands are far more west than being depicted by the NWS map. In a NW flow the tug is normally missed and Rochester to Syracuse is in the crosshairs. I’m confused by this 

I was a bit confused too.

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Really like the look for those south of tug and north of Syracuse for next event. Has it all. 3-6"

I hope so. But if it ends up a Westerly flow and then shifts northwest, we will be the dreaded transition zone.

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42 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I dont think we're anywhere near cold enough for serious accumulations anyway unless Sun-mondays event happens primarily during the evening and throughout the night as temps dont get much lower than the lower 30's and thats at night as well so we'll see I suppose....

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

I mean the meat of this event happens between 6pm and noon the next day.  Pretty much perfect timing to maximize nocturnal cooling.  Point sounding certainly look like all snow if you  believe the GFS.  I see no reason to think there wouldnt be measurable snow by Monday morning in many places.

Capture.JPG.af06380a0874020b420027a6b6133b52.JPG

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30 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Yeah, I'll remain skeptical with this next set-up but it looks like the NWS is all go on our first decent event of the season, wow!  I still don't know where these temps their talking about are coming from cause I dont see it on any of the models, H850's get to a mere -6C perhaps we flirt with -9C for a few hrs but then we quickly warm, idk I guess we wait and see....

Here is Monday Morning in Rochester.  Surface temps below freezing.  850's are about -12c  Lower atmosphere is fairly saturated.  Winds aren't conducive for ROC to get lake effect, but thats a snowy temp profile no matter how you slice it.  Stay positive man.  We are 8 hours into the winter season and you are already a bastion of negativity.  Good Grief.

 

Capture.JPG.b028f399597e1dcc4c1a4864c42963fe.JPG

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