Upstate/Eastern New York

[LakeEffectKing]

Eta!!!!

[wolfie09]

You beat me to it, bastard lol 

[wolfie09]

Para doesn't merge the two..

 

[wolfie09]

Day 3 wpc

 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Kbuf not overly impressed..Still 3"-4" here which would be welcomed lol
 

For once, I agree with their forecast!

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

935mb, SLP, RLMAO

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[wolfie09]

Kbuf

 

Accumulating lake effect snow likely during this period...

An anomalous 500mb trough will sharpen as it tracks from the eastern
Great Lakes Sunday night to northern New England Monday night. Cold
air advection behind a departing cold front will result in 850mb
temperatures of -6 C to -8 C. The combination of large scale ascent
and upstream moisture from the passing trough and lake induced
instability and cold surface temperatures will provide support for
lake effect snow, accumulating at times through Monday night east of
both lakes.

A westerly flow will position lake effect bands east of both Lakes
Sunday evening with surface temperatures falling into the 20s.
Initially, moderate snow showers will be occuring east of Lake Erie
with the best concentration across Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and
southern Erie counties as a secondary cold front approaches from the
west. Forecast soundings show saturation to the equilibrium level of
15k feet and unidirectional westerly flow east of Lake Erie. Snow
showers will taper off further inland and into the Niagara Frontier.
Lake effect snow showers east of Lake Ontario will be confined to
the Tug Hill region Sunday evening before intensifying as the
secondary cold front approaches this area into Monday morning. The
cold front will move through the entire region Monday morning and
northwest flow will shift lake snows south and across a majority of
the region. There will likely be a upstream connection to Lake Huron
and Georgian Bay reaching parts of the Niagara Frontier and
southeast Chautauqua county. At this time, surface temperatures will
climb into the upper 30s to low 40s making it more difficult to
accumulate especially across the Lake Plains but snow showers will
be the most likely p-type through Monday afternoon. Strong winds
will also move into the region resulting in areas of blowing snow.
Accumulations of 2-4 inches are possible across the higher terrain
east of Lake Erie and on the Tug Hill plateau through Monday
afternoon. Elsewhere, a dusting to 2 inches are possible with the
higher amounts across the higher terrain.

The trough moves east Monday night into Tuesday. Dry air and
subsidence will move into western NY and snow showers will become
less intense however linger during this time. Accumulations will be
lower with an additional 1-3 inches east of Lake Erie during this
time. The opposite can be said about east of Lake Ontario where
upper level vorticity advection and a surface low move toward the
North Country Monday night. This will reinvigorate lake effect snow
showers east of Lake Ontario with upstream moisture and lift
increasing while surface temperatures fall below freezing.
Additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher
amounts on the Tug Hill are possible into Tuesday morning. Windy
conditions expected Monday night with near 30-40 mph close to the
Lakes.

Snow showers will taper off Tuesday with most of them confined to
the southern shower of Lake Ontario as high pressure moves into the
region. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 40s and upper 30s
across the higher terrain.

Accumulating snow Sunday night through Monday night may require
Winter Weather Headlines for areas east of Lake Erie and east of
Lake Ontario. Accumulating snow may impact the Monday morning
commute across the region.

[wolfie09]

Both events

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Anyone know where to find EPO index? The teleconnection page only shows 4 indexes.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[DeltaT13]

So what are the chances we see some wet snow squalls right at the end of the game tomorrow?  It’s frustratingly close but seems to probably be a couple hours to late with the changeover. Dang it all. 

[wolfie09]

High resolution Canadian still going big..

 

[wolfie09]

Looks like practically every high rez model has at least a foot somewhere over the tug, between both events..

[sferic]

Maybe Sullivan County in the Catskills gets an inch from these streamers?

[wolfie09]

WWA issued for this evening, WSW for tomorrow afternoon through Tuesday morning..

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35
  mph. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 7 to 10 inches possible with localized heavier
  amounts.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 7 PM this evening
  to 10 AM EST Monday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Monday
  afternoon through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Monday and Tuesday
  commutes.

[wolfie09]

Now to the details. Quiet over NY now, but that changes late this
morning/midday as rain spreads across region due to strong height
falls and diffluence aloft from jet driving across southern Plains
to Ohio Valley. As quick as widespread rain moves in, it moves out
by late day, starting to change to snow over higher terrain of
western NY as cold air pours in behind the cold front marching
across the region. South winds ahead of front are gusting over 40
mph this morning along Lake Erie south of Buffalo and expect these
strong winds to shift west this afternoon and become strong and
gusty farther north into the western Niagara Frontier, including
the Buffalo Metro. Gusts to 45 mph look likely, especially mid
afternoon post cold front and when pressure rises move across
enhancing the winds. A brief period of stronger gusts could also
occur farther east, but too brief to highlight in a wind advisory
as areas along Lake Erie are now under.

Late this afternoon and early this evening, setup quickly becomes
favorable for lake enhanced snow downwind of both lakes. Lake
equilibrium levels start climbing to around 15kft early evening off
Lake Erie and not much later off Lake Ontario as the whole
leading trough stays progressive. Winds in the building lake
effect convective layer are strong with 30-45 kts, so that will
limit residence time over the lakes and also will fracture
dendrites. Net result of both factors will be to limit SLRs and
snow accums. Even so, as the period of strongest lake
enhancement occurs late evening through the early overnight,
snowfall rates could reach 1 inch per hour for a few hours.
Total snow accums by late tonight in the areas favored by nw
flow east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario could reach 6 inches.
Higher terrain of Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus county and
on the Tug Hill would be where heaviest snow is expected. That
said, much of higher terrain over western NY will see at least a
few inches of snow along with some blowing snow due to the
strong winds. Have issued winter weather advisories over western
Southern Tier into the higher terrain of Southern Erie and
Wyoming county and also for the eastern Lake Ontario region.
Outside of these areas, light snow with the gusty winds will
result in areas of lower visibility which could linger into the
Monday morning commute. Will mention this hazard in the HWO.
Lull in lake effect will be brief as another round of heavy lake
effect snow is possible late Monday afternoon into Monday night
especially for westerly to northwest flow targeting the Tug
Hill region. See details on this in the short term discussion.

Brief improvement expected on Monday into early afternoon. Drying
and subsidence behind the departing upper trough will leave
just some light snow showers and flurries. Winds will remain
gusty so patchy blowing snow still could occur especially in
areas that see the most snow overnight tonight. Final issue late
tonight into Monday morning will be chilly conditions with
temps in the upper 20s to around 30 and wind chill readings in
the upper teens to lower 20s.

Lull in lake effect will be brief off Lake Ontario as another round
of heavy lake effect snow is possible late Monday afternoon into
Monday night especially for westerly to northwest flow targeting the
Tug Hill region. See details on this part of the event in the short
term discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
...Significant accumulating lake snows possible east of Lake
Ontario during this period...

While the broader mid-level trough slowly progresses east
Monday across the Lower Lakes, a secondary potent shortwave will
drops SE channeling down the back side of the broader trough.
While lake snows weaken off Lake Erie, the exact opposite can be
said east of Lake Ontario where westerly flow across the lake
will make use of the longer fetch to produce what could be our
first significant snowfall, especially across the Tug Hill. The
only hindrance right now appears to be residence time of the
band over any given location which is expected to gradually
settle southward over the course of the night. However,
confident enough that there will be time for snowfall
accumulation greater than +7 inches east of Lake Ontario in the
most intense portion of the band. A Winter storm watch has been
issued for this potential from Monday evening through Tuesday
morning. Some minor accumulations can still anticipated east of
Lake Erie overnight but with drier air moving in and equilibrium
levels falling this will limit the lake response off Lake Erie.

The aforementioned mid-level trough then moves well east of the
region by early Tuesday morning. The loss of background moisture
with the departing trough and lowering equilibrium levels will then
aid in gradually weakening and diminishing lake snows over the
course of the day.

After Tuesday, dry weather returns as sfc ridging builds off the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast coast. This will not only provide dry weather
through the end of this period but also initiate a big warm up.
Temperatures anticipated to climb well above normal with highs
climbing into the 60s for the later half of the week.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Maybe Sullivan County in the Catskills gets an inch from these streamers?

Not likely, but you've already saw snow now its our turn

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[wolfie09]

Kbgm expected snowfall (first event only)

 

[rochesterdave]

I love how the Tug gets lake effect snow on a NW wind. It should be impossible as they have no lake to their NW, but they get it. 
A terrible set up for the Thruway corridor. Don’t expect much in the big 3. But seeing flakes will be fun! 

[wolfie09]

Well the NWS failed to mention the West-WSW flow just behind the CF, before the switch over to a NW Flow..

It's more of a wrap around regime, tug/dacks have closer proximity and elevation..

[BuffaloWeather]

Pretty good first event of the season, enjoy the flakes because winter is going away for at least 2 weeks.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

4-7" for our area with Advisory seems way way overdone then another 3-6" with the watch ober the TUG which seems much more realistic but well see > suppose

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[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

I love how the Tug gets lake effect snow on a NW wind. It should be impossible as they have no lake to their NW, but they get it. 
A terrible set up for the Thruway corridor. Don’t expect much in the big 3. But seeing flakes will be fun! 

That's the "NW flow event" I waited for the entire winter I was there!

[Thinksnow18]

59 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Pretty good first event of the season, enjoy the flakes because winter is going away for at least 2 weeks.

I see KBUF put Niagara Frontier at an inch. This is a good idea as upwind at Lake Michigan, Superior and Huron are full tilt right now.

[TugHillMatt]

Friday was a no-show snow and tomorrow is looking less exciting for this area as we get closer. Hopefully it's not 5 months of this!

[Syrmax]

18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Friday was a no-show snow and tomorrow is looking less exciting for this area as we get closer. Hopefully it's not 5 months of this!

I’m thinking a light accumulation, up to maybe an inch by Monday a.m. for us.  After that we start warming up.  I have a tee time for next Sunday so a nice global warming November will be “warmly” greeted here.

[TugHillMatt]

11 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I’m thinking a light accumulation, up to maybe an inch by Monday a.m. for us.  After that we start warming up.  I have a tee time for next Sunday so a nice global warming November will be “warmly” greeted here.

You would...haha. I am thinking the same. An inch that will melt during the day tomorrow...then maybe another inch tomorrow night.

Syracuse has broken so many warm records lately. I wish I lived here when winters used to be real winters!

[Syrmax]

18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

You would...haha. I am thinking the same. An inch that will melt during the day tomorrow...then maybe another inch tomorrow night.

Syracuse has broken so many warm records lately. I wish I lived here when winters used to be real winters!

Since I’ve been here (15 winters), we have been average or above avg for snowfall for probably 11 or 12.  So not bad...although the propensity for consistent snowcover has been lacking.  I haven’t seen any real analysis of this compared to longer term averages, so I don’t know if it’s a real trend or imagined.  However, more frustratingly for me, is that we def have had a number of recent Dec/Jan periods where it magically gets mild right before Xmas and into at least the first half of January.  Which is really a downer from an overall seasonal “quality of experience” standpoint. Last winter a perfect example...starts early, gets mild in prime time, yet a cold wet spring with snow into mid May. On top of the Covid misery.  Blech!

[rochesterdave]

I remember in the 90’s I used to get so jealous of Syracuse. I’d wake up here in Rochester with bright sun and see a report of heavy snow in Syracuse with 14” fresh. They seem to have stopped having a lot of those Syracuse blaster bands that come off the SE of Ontario and literally just bisect the city. It could be that they just had some anomalous years then. 
Hey! Syracuse still has the big swinging dic. in the thruway cities. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Syracuse average snowfall has been going up the last 30 years.

[BuffaloWeather]

46 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

You would...haha. I am thinking the same. An inch that will melt during the day tomorrow...then maybe another inch tomorrow night.

Syracuse has broken so many warm records lately. I wish I lived here when winters used to be real winters!

We're 51 days away from winters start date.