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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Next Friday/Saturday look pretty cold. Lows around 40?

image.thumb.png.0d715505249b8c894eb52fc82a2677c8.png

Yeah it keeps looking colder and colder for next weekend. I agree with you about the next 3 month's temps. I do like however that the season's are behaving as they should. Hopefully as you mentioned it's not too much of a good thing.

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Frost advisory issued for this evening..

 

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the lower to mid 30s will result in
  frost formation.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.

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22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Frost advisory issued for this evening..

 

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the lower to mid 30s will result in
  frost formation.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if
  left uncovered.

If you're getting frost advs already, I'm thinking first freeze this weekend or next. 2 pretty potent cool shots. 

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Haha yeah we already had a little frost a couple days ago when temps dropped several degrees below forecast.. Next weekends forecast is showing uppers 50's for highs and mid 30s for lows, we'll see how that plays out..

 

Still not sure where exactly I'll be living for winter lol Anywhere along 81(just inland) from Watertown to brewerton/Cicero is in play..

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Thursday, the cold front sags south of the region by the afternoon
with surface ridge to our west beginning to build in behind it. Cold
air advection under NW`erly flow will then filter in a much cooler
air mass with H850T falling to +2C/+3C by Friday. Afternoon highs
Thursday will generally be in the low 70s.
High pressure to our west will continue to build in across the Lower
Lakes with tranquil weather during the period. With an unseasonably
cool airmass in place afternoon highs will average 5F to 10F below
normal, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. There will also be a
potential for frost, especially Friday night into Saturday with lows
potentially in the low/mid 30s to low 40s that night.

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lake is right around the highest it's ever been for this time of year. 74 degrees. 

Could mean a big LES season for you guys if Nov/Dec end up below normal. 

Was by Lake Ontario a week ago and the water was quite warm still. 

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7 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Could mean a big LES season for you guys if Nov/Dec end up below normal. 

Was by Lake Ontario a week ago and the water was quite warm still. 

Lake Erie is pretty shallow, so we usually cheer for warm temps right until lake effect season starts in mid/late November as even 1/2 weeks of below weather between now and then will lead the lake to cool to normal. Lake Ontario doesn't have to worry about freezing up as its too deep. 

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Sally is rapidly strengthening. Might be a major at landfall at this rate. Anyone notice the sky today? The dust from the wildfires has made its way over to our area. I wonder if this causes a quick transition to cooler temps as the suns energy is basically blocked across the entire northern states? 

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Sally is rapidly strengthening. Might be a major at landfall at this rate. Anyone notice the sky today? The dust from the wildfires has made its way over to our area. I wonder if this causes a quick transition to cooler temps as the suns energy is basically blocked across the entire northern states? 

Yeah, really got its act together in the past several hours. NO lucked out with more eastern landfall.

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

GFS bullish still. Should be close to freezing Friday and Saturday night.

The temps might even get to the upper 30s in the second ring of buffalo, think Clarence, Lancaster, elma

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Sally is rapidly strengthening. Might be a major at landfall at this rate. 

She looks the best on IR so far. What a year it's been.

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58 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lake Erie is pretty shallow, so we usually cheer for warm temps right until lake effect season starts in mid/late November as even 1/2 weeks of below weather between now and then will lead the lake to cool to normal. Lake Ontario doesn't have to worry about freezing up as its too deep. 

Makes sense. Most of Buffalo's lake effect snow comes from streamers off Lake Erie. Different story further north towards Rochester and Syracuse. La Nina Octobers are typically warmer than normal, so we'll see if that holds serve for this year. 

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3 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

GFS bullish still. Should be close to freezing Friday and Saturday night.

Frost advisory tonight for Delaware and Otsego Counties now.  I'm thinking good chance I'll have one at my place.

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Looks really dry for at least the next 10 days too. Less than 0.5 inch on most models. We greened back up a bit here but overall it’s been quite a dry stretch of weather for our area going all the way back to June. Interesting how several dry fronts have pushed through at times too. 

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8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

4th hurricane to make landfall in US? Not counting Bermuda getting hit this morning. 

Yeah. It’d be Hanna, Isaias, Laura, and Sally. Last season with 4? 

2005 with 5 hurricane landfalls. 4 were majors—Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma.

7 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Makes sense. Most of Buffalo's lake effect snow comes from streamers off Lake Erie. Different story further north towards Rochester and Syracuse. La Nina Octobers are typically warmer than normal, so we'll see if that holds serve for this year. 

How does a Niña usually shake out for seasonal totals in snow country?

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39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

How does a Niña usually shake out for seasonal totals in snow country?

Impossible to predict. There is very little coorelation besides strong Ninos giving us warmer and less snowy winters. I'd say Ninas are slightly favored to Ninos. In this forum we want cold air to awaken the lakes. If we get it, we have snowier winters, if we don't we have less snowy winters.

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