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Met1985

2020/2021 Fall/Winter Mountain thread

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6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

As GSP just expands the watch and ups totals. 

Currently I like the 1 to 4 inches.  The models may correct back tonight into tomorrow morning but we have been here and done that already this winter...

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17 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

As GSP just expands the watch and ups totals. 

Morristown has also put up a WSW calling for 3-6 inches mountains and 1-3 valley locations. In situations like this, I think it's important to look at what the mets are seeing region wide.

Yes, the models today have been concerning, but models in general right now seem to be a hot mess with wild run to run fluctuations short and long term. I'm still optimistic for this system and I think many in WNC will be happy by Sunday morning.

 

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I’m definitely not as confident as I was, but I think the short range models are keeping the low over Tennessee to long before transferring. We might just have to wait till tomorrow evening and watch and see.

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Morristown has also put up a WSW calling for 3-6 inches mountains and 1-3 valley locations. In situations like this, I think it's important to look at what the mets are seeing region wide.
Yes, the models today have been concerning, but models in general right now seem to be a hot mess with wild run to run fluctuations short and long term. I'm still optimistic for this system and I think many in WNC will be happy by Sunday morning.
 
I have 4" in my nws forecast from gsp. 1/4 mile away from here the forecast is for 6" from mrx. I'm good either way.

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So the 18Z GFS increases totals by about 3.5 inches from its previous run for a total of 10 nearby. Comical watching all these wild gyrations the past 36 hours!

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1 hour ago, Maggie Ace said:

So the 18Z GFS increases totals by about 3.5 inches from its previous run for a total of 10 nearby. Comical watching all these wild gyrations the past 36 hours!

I still think a 2-4 3-6 type deal is in the cards for the mtns

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Been following the ups and downs today, seems like deja vu with my lurking the past few years, watching the overnight models trend badly the next day. Probably a whole lot of confirmation bias there though. 

Apologies for the IMBY comment, but that's what I'm good for when I do chime in ;) — I'm just hoping for more than a dusting here, too many teases this winter. Some winters we get pounded here in the southern mountains near the escarpment, and others it seems like NWFS dominates and we get flurries. So far this has been the latter—the kind of winters I remember in school in the late 90s. All the northern counties getting snow days, me huffing and puffing and hitting the books. :lol:

Anyway, good luck everyone! Hopefully the models come in a little better for all of us overnight. 

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1 minute ago, SnoJoe said:

Whatcha' think? True or false?

 

StormTotalSnow.png

 

Given their track record the last couple systems gotta lean false. 

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5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Given their track record the last couple systems gotta lean false. 

I agree. I think it might end up being a number 2 on the SnoJoe scale:

  1.  1-2 inches = Nickels and dimes
  2.  2-4 inches = Ok, I guess. What's for dinner?
  3.  4-6 inches = Decent
  4.  6+ inches = A good snow
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4 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

I agree. I think it might end up being a number 2 on the SnoJoe scale:

  1.  1-2 inches = Nickels and dimes
  2.  2-4 inches = Ok, I guess. What's for dinner?
  3.  4-6 inches = Decent
  4.  6+ inches = A good snow

Down in the valley, I will put the 2-4 in the good snow category. :lol:

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That scale pretty much matches up with mine Joe lol. I'm hoping for a decent event for my area, be good to get some pics from my wife of the dogs playing in the snow.

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8 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

Down in the valley, I will put the 2-4 in the good snow category. :lol:

My scale is a little on the high side!:)

 

5 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

That scale pretty much matches up with mine Joe lol. I'm hoping for a decent event for my area, be good to get some pics from my wife of the dogs playing in the snow.

You'll die if this thing gets super amped and drops a foot!

 

3 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:


True down this way


.

You've been so close this year. You'll get yours when that monster Kraken rolls through in a couple of weeks.

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1 minute ago, SnoJoe said:

My scale is a little on the high side!:)

 

You'll die if this thing gets super amped and drops a foot!

 

You've been so close this year. You'll get yours when that monster Kraken rolls through in a couple of weeks.

Ha, I won't be home to enjoy.  Up in Bluefield and a foot up here does me no good except keeping me in the hotel :lol:

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1 minute ago, WxKnurd said:

Ha, I won't be home to enjoy.  Up in Bluefield and a foot up here does me no good except keeping me in the hotel :lol:

Ha! I know exactly how you feel. I was in Albany one time and they got 11 inches and it didn't impress me at all!

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5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Sref. 75 qpf with 1" of snow here. #ugly

Ouch. Figure it will come in even more amped 

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I recorded 128" in south Cashiers area in 2020, obviously not an official recording but it's the most I've ever recorded here in ten years.

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10 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

Highlands broke their annual rainfall record this past year at 136.50", only 3.45" shy of the state record at Mt Mitchell in 2018 (139.94"). 

2018 - 125.46"
2019 - 111.78"
2020 - 136.50"

Some folks have high snow totals, we have high/extreme rain totals. 

@SnoJoe @LiQuiDBuD

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Highlands broke their annual rainfall record this past year at 136.50", only 3.45" shy of the state record at Mt Mitchell in 2018 (139.94"). 
2018 - 125.46"
2019 - 111.78"
2020 - 136.50"
Some folks have high snow totals, we have high/extreme rain totals. 
[mention=1676]SnoJoe[/mention] [mention=4010]LiQuiDBuD[/mention]
Thanks for the data! Yeah it's been a soggy few years 'round these parts!

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22 minutes ago, Local Yokel Wx said:

Highlands broke their annual rainfall record this past year at 136.50", only 3.45" shy of the state record at Mt Mitchell in 2018 (139.94"). 

2018 - 125.46"
2019 - 111.78"
2020 - 136.50"

Some folks have high snow totals, we have high/extreme rain totals. 

@SnoJoe @LiQuiDBuD

Even more than I thought! The rain has gotten ridiculous over the last few years, and depressing!

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