Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[MJO812]

48 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yea I believe the only place to see winds like that would be at the beaches and over the water.  Some of the airports may see some gusts near 50-60.

Why would you say that ? The trough is going to ignite this storm up here.

Heaviest rain will be west of the city  and the strongest  winds will be in NYC east.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not overly convinced yet that this is a high impact event here.

12z spaghetti guidance is fairly tightly clustered for the center to pass near Philly and then up over Western NJ and into Upstate NY. 

If that track takes place, we would be on the stronger, Eastern side of the system, but this will be transitioning to extra tropical so most of the activity should be just North and West of the track. I question how strong the winds will be, especially outside of convection which looks to be sporadic or scattered at best. 

Just have a feeling this ends up being a 4-6 hour event with a couple inches of rain and some gusty winds. The center moves from near the NC/SC border to near Albany in about 12 hours and I'm not seeing much of a PRE on current modeling.

 

its so weird how this low is tracking inland 

You can throw climo out the window

[wdrag]

Elevations on the backside may take a bit of a beating tomorrow night when the wind turns west...could gust 50-60MPH at High Point NJ and if we have 8" of rain by then(???), uproots etc with power out.  Will need to see day cycles etc. If it does so here, might do the same in Litchfield County if it tracks near HFD?

 

[SnoSki14]

50 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks the worst it has in a day, was looking decent 6 hrs ago

It should reintensify when it finally turns NNE in the direction of the shear vector. 

This will commence shortly as the jet is strongly pushing up against him now.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It should reintensify when it finally turns NNE in the direction of the shear vector. 

Shear has calmed down some, but still running in the 25-30kt range. Probably not going to have much of a window for intensification before landfall. 

After landfall in the Carolina's, it will be over land for much of the rest of its existence, so no ability to ride the gulf stream up.

[qg_omega]

18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not overly convinced yet that this is a high impact event here.

12z spaghetti guidance is fairly tightly clustered for the center to pass near Philly and then up over Western NJ and into Upstate NY. 

If that track takes place, we would be on the stronger, Eastern side of the system, but this will be transitioning to extra tropical so most of the activity should be just North and West of the track. I question how strong the winds will be, especially outside of convection which looks to be sporadic or scattered at best. 

Just have a feeling this ends up being a 4-6 hour event with a couple inches of rain and some gusty winds. The center moves from near the NC/SC border to near Albany in about 12 hours and I'm not seeing much of a PRE on current modeling.

 

The soundings are well mixed East of the center

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

The soundings are well mixed East of the center

Right, but if the center tracks over the city or just West, wondering if this is limited to LI?

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Right, but if the center tracks over the city or just West, wondering if this is limited to LI?

Of course but looks up track over western NJ at the moment but subject to wobbles

[SnoSki14]

33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not overly convinced yet that this is a high impact event here.

12z spaghetti guidance is fairly tightly clustered for the center to pass near Philly and then up over Western NJ and into Upstate NY. 

If that track takes place, we would be on the stronger, Eastern side of the system, but this will be transitioning to extra tropical so most of the activity should be just North and West of the track. I question how strong the winds will be, especially outside of convection which looks to be sporadic or scattered at best. 

Just have a feeling this ends up being a 4-6 hour event with a couple inches of rain and some gusty winds. The center moves from near the NC/SC border to near Albany in about 12 hours and I'm not seeing much of a PRE on current modeling.

 

I'm always skeptical when it comes to tropical systems so I get your point. Whatever happens will be over a short period of time, hopefully this tracks further west so we could see some stronger winds.

If this is shooting up 25-30mph there's bound to be some very strong gusts on the eastern side. Tornado threat exists as well.

Don't really think this is a rain threat for us so I'm not overly concerned about flooding.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm always skeptical when it comes to tropical systems so I get your point. Whatever happens will be over a short period of time, hopefully this tracks further west so we could see some stronger winds.

If this is shooting up 25-30mph there's bound to be some very strong gusts on the eastern side. Tornado threat exists as well.

Don't really think this is a rain threat for us so I'm not overly concerned about flooding.

You would have thought the rain event would be more of a concern than the wind aspect.

The Euro speeds up this storm . Thats  why it shows ridiculous  winds.

[MJO812]

This is slightly stronger version of Fay

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You would have thought the rain event would be more of a concern that  the wind aspect.

The Euro speeds up this storm . Thats  why it shows ridiculous  winds.

The period of baroclinic deepening shown on the ECMWF also contributes. It makes landfall on the SC coast with a 992 mb central pressure. The central pressure falls to 987 mb by the time Isaias is over the Chesapeake Bay. It passes just west of NYC with a central pressure of 990 mb.

[MJO812]

High tide will be a big issue with this storm

[wkd]

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

its so weird how this low is tracking inland 

You can throw climo out the window

Climo should always be thrown out the window regarding synoptic guidance. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, wkd said:

Climo should always be thrown out the window regarding synoptic guidance. 

People who keep talking about climo  should have thrown it out the window when Sandy hit.

[David-LI]

NAM 12z with a stronger low off SC coast compared to last run

[allgame830]

well NHC still thinks it will regain minimal hurricane status just before landfall.  and no way the shear is still in that range it is sig lower than that at this time.... not sure if anybody should be downplaying a storm like this.  I would expect more significant impacts then FAY.

 

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not overly convinced yet that this is a high impact event here.

12z spaghetti guidance is fairly tightly clustered for the center to pass near Philly and then up over Western NJ and into Upstate NY. 

If that track takes place, we would be on the stronger, Eastern side of the system, but this will be transitioning to extra tropical so most of the activity should be just North and West of the track. I question how strong the winds will be, especially outside of convection which looks to be sporadic or scattered at best. 

Just have a feeling this ends up being a 4-6 hour event with a couple inches of rain and some gusty winds. The center moves from near the NC/SC border to near Albany in about 12 hours and I'm not seeing much of a PRE on current modeling.

 

Just some gusty winds???....  lets get real now! this is a higher impact storm considering it will be moving faster which does not allow for weakening to be as much and also the phase in with the trough which would help to tighten the wind giradiant.

[forkyfork]

i'm pretty worried about losing power now

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

well NHC still thinks it will regain minimal hurricane status just before landfall.  and no way the shear is still in that range it is sig lower than that at this time.... not sure if anybody should be downplaying a storm like this.  I would expect more significant impacts then FAY.

 

Just some gusty winds???....  lets get real now! this is a higher impact storm considering it will be moving faster which does not allow for weakening to be as much and also the phase in with the trough which would help to tighten the wind giradiant.

I think he’s talking about in his area. Storms racing north have historically had enhanced winds on their eastern sides. Just think of a much weaker version of 38 or hazel. There will be damaging winds from the city East. Trees are in full leaf and the wind direction will be somewhat unusual.

[crossbowftw3]

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think he’s talking about in his area. Storms racing north have historically had enhanced winds on their eastern sides. Just think of a much weaker version of 38 or hazel. There will be damaging winds from the city East. Trees are in full leaf and the wind direction will be somewhat unusual.

For us inland folks we aren't looking for maybe anything more than gusts 20-40, which I think he is in the same boat I am. You guys on the coasts will much more likely see gusts 40-60; definitely someone getting a gust to 80 in cells that mix down. Soundings do seem to be well mixed east of the city.

[allgame830]

5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think he’s talking about in his area. Storms racing north have historically had enhanced winds on their eastern sides. Just think of a much weaker version of 38 or hazel. There will be damaging winds from the city East. Trees are in full leaf and the wind direction will be somewhat unusual.

OK warranted but backyard is pretty far inland which is not a representation of the alot of the subforum.  even for me in the Lower Hudson Valley I still would expect some strong winds and potentially gusts over 50-60mph.  Isaias will pack a nice punch.  yesterday i was more concerned on flooding now the wind factor has definitely increased quite from NYC on east/north.  still believe we see a few inches or rain as opposed to west of NYC in NJ/Eastern PA could see 4-6 inches with some localized amounts up to 8" is not out of the question.

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, David-LI said:

NAM 12z with a stronger low off SC coast compared to last run

Low is going to track just west of NYC on the Nam

13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i'm pretty worried about losing power now

Your area should get smacked with the rain.

10 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

We REALLY lucked out this thing was hit so hard by shear and dry air.

If this storm didn't hit the islands we would have been in big trouble. 

[NJwx85]

Satellite loop shows this is already beginning to interact with the trough. I'm liking the idea of slow intensification today since the shear vector should actually help to ventilate the system now.

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

OK warranted but backyard is pretty far inland which is not a representation of the alot of the subforum.  even for me in the Lower Hudson Valley I still would expect some strong winds and potentially gusts over 50-60mph.  Isaias will pack a nice punch.  yesterday i was more concerned on flooding now the wind factor has definitely increased quite from NYC on east/north.  still believe we see a few inches or rain as opposed to west of NYC in NJ/Eastern PA could see 4-6 inches with some localized amounts up to 8" is not out of the question.

I'm in Mahwah, which is upper Bergen County. 

I'm not trying to mitigate the severity of the storm, especially for those just along the coast.

I'm just not totally convinced yet that the winds on the modeling will be fully realized. Usually we end up with an inversion and that requires deep convection to overcome, but I also understand that we should have solid mixing East of the low track so who knows. Just a low confidence forecast IMO.

Forward speed should also play a role.

[TriPol]

Gah... seeing a hurricane inland in NJ. Flashbacks of Sandy.

[allgame830]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

I'm in Mahwah, which is upper Bergen County. 

I'm not trying to mitigate the severity of the storm, especially for those just along the coast.

I'm just not totally convinced yet that the winds on the modeling will be fully realized. Usually we end up with an inversion and that requires deep convection to overcome, but I also understand that we should have solid mixing East of the low track so who knows. Just a low confidence forecast IMO.

Forward speed should also play a role.

Yea i know you locale is pretty far inland.... your concern I feel should of on the flooding rains because all of the models have trended in that direction.  also if he regains minimal hurricane status ( i am thinking 85mph) then I really don't see much decline in intensity as it moves up to our latitude.  Most likely 65-70mph around our region which is all dependent on if does strengthen a bit.  some if's.... we'll see.  definitely have a better understanding of the situation by later this evening/tonight.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Gah... seeing a hurricane inland in NJ. Flashbacks of Sandy.

This is not even close to Sandy 

[MJO812]

Regular Nam has 1000 low west of NYC while the 3k Nam has a 993 low in the same spot.

[larrye]

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People who keep talking about climo  should have thrown it out the window when Sandy hit.

Because of one event? An event where a low-pressure center basically came up the coast and took a left hook into NJ?

[NJwx85]

12 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Yea i know you locale is pretty far inland.... your concern I feel should of on the flooding rains because all of the models have trended in that direction.  also if he regains minimal hurricane status ( i am thinking 85mph) then I really don't see much decline in intensity as it moves up to our latitude.  Most likely 65-70mph around our region which is all dependent on if does strengthen a bit.  some if's.... we'll see.  definitely have a better understanding of the situation by later this evening/tonight.

I'm really not that far inland. If I take a three minute drive down Rt 17 I can see the city.