Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Gloria was not impressive looking to the west of the eye. From eastern Nassau on east the wind was pretty bad with numerous outages and lots of trees down. Hazel was real interesting because it went thru western Pennsylvania  but the winds far east of the center were record breaking in NYC where Battery Park received over 100MPH gusts and I believe Hartford also had a record wind gust. Battery Park actually had 113mph, highest ever in NYC

Yes, a Cat 3 wind gust!  I wonder if they shut down the bridges during that storm?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

rainfall in NYC from a tropical storm/hurricane...
date.................amount........
Sept 1882.......10.63"
Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricane
Aug 2011..........6.87" Irene
Aug 1955..........6.32" Connie
Aug 1971..........5.96" Doria
Sept 1938.........5.74"
Sept 1934.........5.48"
Sept 1999.........5.44" Floyd
Aug 1879..........4.59"
Aug 1976..........4.28" Belle
Oct 1877...........4.07"
Aug 1893..........3.94"
Sept 1904.........3.85"
Aug 1991..........3.72" Bob
Sept 1985.........3.58" Gloria
July 1960..........3.56"...Brenda
Sept 1954.........3.30" Carol
Sept 1960.........2.42" Donna

1944 is an extremely underrated TC....there were reports of 200 mph wind gusts from coastal NJ?  Lots of damage there.  That was a true coastal hugger.

a record hot summer too.....1944 was a fascinating year.

I think Aug 1893 is the only hurricane on this list that actually made landfall in the 5 boros?

Uncle, do you have a track/intensity map for Sept 1882 (our rainiest month ever, almost nudged out by October 2005), I haven't seen a map for that storm.

 

Uncle, I found something else pretty amazing that happened in Sept 1882!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Comet_of_1882

The Great Comet of 1882 formally designated C/1882 R1, 1882 II, and 1882b, was a comet which became very bright in September 1882. It was a member of the Kreutz Sungrazers, a family of comets which pass within 1 R_☉ of the Sun's photosphere at perihelion.^[1][2] The comet was bright enough to be visible next to the Sun in the daytime sky at its perihelion.^[3]

 

 

 

 

[lee59]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1944 is an extremely underrated TC....there were reports of 200 mph wind gusts from coastal NJ?  Lots of damage there.  That was a true coastal hugger.

a record hot summer too.....1944 was a fascinating year.

I think Aug 1893 is the only hurricane on this list that actually made landfall in the 5 boros?

Uncle, do you have a track/intensity map for Sept 1882 (our rainiest month ever, almost nudged out by October 2005), I haven't seen a map for that storm.

 

 

1944 Hurricane made landfall in Southhampton Beach Long Island. I would have my doubts about the 200mph wind gusts unless they had a tornado.

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, lee59 said:

1944 Hurricane made landfall in Southhampton Beach Long Island. I would have my doubts about the 200mph wind gusts unless they had a tornado.

thats why I find this storm so intriguing, it caused way more damage to the Jersey shore than would be expected with that kind of landfall.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1944_Great_Atlantic_hurricane#Jersey_Shore

as a matter of fact, that storm tracked significantly farther east than Gloria lol.

 

 

[PB-99]

Keep a few things in mind with this early on.

This reformed North of Hispaniola where it should have been shredded and it now starting to have some have some pretty healthy outflow.

You have 29c in front of it with a ridge keeping it pinned , preventing it from recurving.

So it's getting funneled into some favorable conditions over the next 48 hours.

Then its up. The key for us does it strike S of OBX and come up as an inside runner which would weaken it or will not like the friction and want to stay off.

If the models underestimate the strength in the SE you would want to root for it come in west of OBX because its forward motion would keep a good center intact if it made a B line for Islip.

 

[White Gorilla]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, I personally dont remember it but I remember Gloria lol.  Didn't Henry make landfall just before Gloria did?  I remember days of rainfall before Gloria hit, maybe that was Henry?

 

Yup, Henry came before Gloria.  Even in 7th grade I was a weather geek following every detail on my NOAH weather radio! 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

1944 is an extremely underrated TC....there were reports of 200 mph wind gusts from coastal NJ?  Lots of damage there.  That was a true coastal hugger.

a record hot summer too.....1944 was a fascinating year.

I think Aug 1893 is the only hurricane on this list that actually made landfall in the 5 boros?

Uncle, do you have a track/intensity map for Sept 1882 (our rainiest month ever, almost nudged out by October 2005), I haven't seen a map for that storm.

 

Uncle, I found something else pretty amazing that happened in Sept 1882!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Comet_of_1882

The Great Comet of 1882 formally designated C/1882 R1, 1882 II, and 1882b, was a comet which became very bright in September 1882. It was a member of the Kreutz Sungrazers, a family of comets which pass within 1 R_☉ of the Sun's photosphere at perihelion.^[1][2] The comet was bright enough to be visible next to the Sun in the daytime sky at its perihelion.^[3]

 

 

 

 

1882 and 1944 newspaper accounts of the storms...

1882...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1882-09-23/ed-1/seq-10/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1882-09-24/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1882-09-24/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1882-09-24/ed-1/seq-1/

https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50367140

 

1944...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52894719/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52894893

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52896093/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52896175

 

[uncle W]

when I used to take the train to Coney island it would pass Coney Island creek and the sunken tugboat next to the train bridge...my aunt at the time this picture was taken 1961 told me it sunk during the 1944 hurricane...

[Jacob brooklyn]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

when I used to take the train to Coney island it would pass Coney Island creek and the sunken tugboat next to the train bridge...my aunt at the time this picture was taken 1961 told me it sunk during the 1944 hurricane...

Hi what train to coney island goes over a bridge like that? 

 

oh I see 1961 but still doesn't look like a familiar train line. 

[PB-99]

Just now, Jacob brooklyn said:

Hi what train to coney island goes over a bridge like that? 

That's the F train off the Belt right unc ? 

[Jacob brooklyn]

Just now, PB-99 said:

That's the F train off the Belt right unc ? 

hmmm.. is it really?

[Jacob brooklyn]

4 minutes ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

hmmm.. is it really?

ok, it could be. rarely take the f to coney island. but I looked it up and they upgraded that little shanty of a bridge. that could be why it looked odd to me

[PB-99]

6 minutes ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

hmmm.. is it really?

Or the B ? after it comes out of the yards and turn back around in C / I.

It's just off the belt tho.

Unc will confirm

[Jacob brooklyn]

1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

Or the B ? after it comes out of the yards and turn back around in C / I.

It's just off the belt tho.

Unc will confirm

ok, interesting photo. I know there are some lines that go very low a few feet off the water. not sure which ones. but the b. the last stop is brigton beach. thats near me. b and q. and as far as I know they don't cross that bridge. yes, maybe back to the yards they all do  

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

ok, interesting photo. I know there are some lines that go very low a few feet off the water. not sure which ones. but the b. the last stop is brigton beach. thats near me. b and q. and as far as I know they don't cross that bridge. yes, maybe back to the yards they all do  

A goes only a few feet above the water in Jamaica Bay near Beach Channel.  That line was really damaged by Sandy.

 

[Jacob brooklyn]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

A goes only a few feet above the water in Jamaica Bay near Beach Channel.  That line was really damaged by Sandy.

 

That can be the one I am thinking of. pretty cool

[rclab]

22 minutes ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

ok, interesting photo. I know there are some lines that go very low a few feet off the water. not sure which ones. but the b. the last stop is brigton beach. thats near me. b and q. and as far as I know they don't cross that bridge yes, maybe back to the yards they all do  

I remember going to a high school friends House in Coney Island. I saw the tug while sitting on the rat-ten straw seats if the Sea Beach Express, I believe the N. The train in the picture was a new model almost 60 years ago.As always .....

[uncle W]

41 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Or the B ? after it comes out of the yards and turn back around in C / I.

It's just off the belt tho.

Unc will confirm

At the time it was the sea beach and West end trains...now it's the n for the sea beach and what ever letter the West end is today...

[Rjay]

We have a hurricane

[SnoSki14]

GFS looking more ominous. That's a decent hurricane impacting LI. 

[purduewx80]

yikes 

[NJwx85]

The storm is really hauling and if it ends up much more intense than predicted it could be a legitimate hurricane near LI.

[Great Snow 1717]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Besides 1938 what were the other majors that hit Long Island or NYC?  1944?  Carol?  Donna?  Maybe that 1821 hurricane?  I cant think of any others. And there are others of interest including the 2 hurricanes in 1815.

 

The hurricanes in 1635, 1667,1693 and 1788 may have been major hurricanes. And a close miss in 1869. Others of interest are the 2 hurricanes in 1815 and the hurricane in 1849.

[PB-99]

I think this maxes near a near a 3 in the SE and hits NC from the south as a 2.

Then rips right up 95.

Gona be fun to track.

[Sportybx]

Given the current track . How is it looking for NYC . Are we talking flooding or just some wind and heavy rain . With LI getting all the flooding ? 

[wdrag]

Good Friday morning everyone in our NYC forum, Little change from what was posted yesterday. Have used yesterdays as a starter with commented adjustments.  

It's likely we're going to see significant impact from Isaias.

1) Potential killer Rip Currents Monday-Wednesday for anyone who ventures into the waters s of LI.  I'd be wary of swimming, especially non expert surfers/non expert swimmers. The significant undercurrent 1 feet 15 second swell may start arriving this weekend. These surprise swimmers with their energy and are sneaky dangerous. The higher surf just preceding and following the storm (within 18 hours) usually scares off most swimmers.  
 

2) Rainfall as per multiple ensembles and WPC D4-5.  Best multiple axis of 6-12 hr 4+ rainfall, to be determined.  This on top of the amounts received Friday-Sunday will have to result in pockets of flooding. Where?  Ensembles with the east turn (northern shutoff), now further north or non-existent implying less chance for OTS (i just learned that one yesterday). I'll add PRE info for comment in separate post but I think likely for a part of our NY forum Monday or Monday night, then it shifts north and northwest Tuesday as Isaias rolls northeastward.

3) Presuming the NHC 5AM Thursday track is reasonable, surge and wind field risks on the western side of ISAIAS are minimal but if the track shifts to where a portion of our area is on the eastern side of the TC, then those risks would significantly increase.  I think eastern LI to the southeast New England coast are vulnerable for at least some of these stormier impacts. Not saying they will occur but my background preparation would include comments to that effect.

4) Isolated 7+" rainfall from the "necessary" combined events of Saturday nights WAA (warm frontal) event, Sunday afternoons probable fairly widespread severe storms, mainly nw NJ/se NYS westward into ne PA,  and then finally either a PRE, or a direct impact of Isaias Monday-Tuesday. (maybe the slower 00z/31 EC is correct for early Wednesday but maintaining continuity with NHC).  I'm more concerned today about a combined Predecessor Rainfall event and a possible direct ISAIAS impact in our forum.  The 7+" rainfall in my estimation would probably have to occur west of the I95 corridor due to the ensembles probable combined Sat night-Sunday afternoon events depositing biggest amounts somewhere near the western edge of our forum coverage (~Sussex-Orange Counties?).  If Sat night-Sunday does not occur (1-3" combined event band somewhere in that area), then a PRE or ISAIAS hit would have to do all the work by itself and at this time, this is too uncertain. So to get to 7+", it's a lot easier if we see sizable rainfall Sat night-Sunday.  

(There is still what I think is a diminishing chance not much happens here next Monday-Tuesday-it's in the envelope of possibilities).

Let's see what happens. I'll be particularly interested in PRE comments.  

I'm adding PRE composites.  Where this PRE occurs, IF it occurs, is unknown but my guess based on 00z/31 modeling is between I95 and Williamsport-Burlington Vermont.  I'll add a link for the powerpoint.  I'll also add modeling for the PRE which occurs in subtle convergence about 12-18 hours prior to the passage of the TC (usually east of the PRE so they don't necessarily overlap QPF events), and we need a decent RRQ of the UL jet (which is modeled to strengthen this coming week) and se inflow at 850MB, for a time. Plenty of PWAT and instability will be available. Looking for comments that this "possiblity"  canNOT occur.  I'm thinking it will but I don't know where. These 6-12 hour events can be easy 4-8" producers in 6-12 hours. I'm looking for narrow slices of darker or even brightly colored heavier QPF in the modeling 12-24 hours in advance of Isaias in the GFS/EC/GGEM.  If we get to 36 hours and it's still possible, then we shift to the NAM and HRRR SPC HREF.  

I added EC ensemble 24 hr qpf simulation implied PRE in e PA/NJ well ahead of Isaias, and also the IR simulation. It's just a model and it can vanish in the future but this has my attention until it goes away. It's easy to say NO it wont happen but in these situations where it can be a flash flooder, we need to be alert for the possibility. 

829A/31

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt

[jbenedet]

Full moon on the 3rd.. Surge will likely be a significant impact in the right front quadrant...*if* the storm track is ~perpendicular to coast upon landfall.

Will be critical to determine when (exactly) the velocity (track) gains a more easterly component. 

[SnoSki14]

28 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

I think this maxes near a 3 in the SE and hits NC from the south as a 2.

Then rips right up 95.

Gona be fun to track.

It could also impact Florida as a TS though that still seems unlikely.

I think it'll hit eastern NC as a TS or weak hurricane and trek either just inland or offshore until it hits LI.

Huge uncertainty regarding intensity though upper air pattern looks mostly unfavorable until it recurves n/nne. 

[PB-99]

And it's that RRQ where we have the most risk.

If it hits NC as a 2 , it rips NNE so is it still a 1 here.

 

If it`s shredded prior then it`s a nice rainer. 

[PB-99]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It could also impact Florida as a TS though that still seems unlikely.

I think it'll hit eastern NC as a TS or weak hurricane and trek either just inland or offshore until it hits LI.

Huge uncertainty regarding intensity though upper air pattern looks mostly unfavorable until it recurves n/nne. 

 

Yes the further off Florida the stronger in the SE which has implications here.