Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

The relative consistency of the Euro is becoming concerning.  EDIT: to clarify, the track.

I hate myself for asking this but there's no chance of blocking and a Sandy event is there?  We have had some unusual flow patterns this summer, cutoff and retrograding lows.

Nothing at all like Sandy. That was only so intense up here because it phased with a powerful mid latitude trough and was forced to by the blocking NE of it. It was essentially a bigger and stronger Perfect Storm 1991 forced inland. This setup is nothing like that. 

[PB-99]

The water would allow this to strengthen all the way to OBX.

 

So yes it weakens, that`s 27c  not 29c water but it`s probably hauling.

 

So the key is, is it weakening from a strong 2 or a weak 1 or a shredded out shell of itself  or is it intact because of its forward speed ? 

 

Duno yet.  But that WAR may not allow this to re-curve much , it may be coming  NNE than NE 

 

[PB-99]

[lee59]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Nothing at all like Sandy. That was only so intense up here because it phased with a powerful mid latitude trough and was forced to by the blocking NE of it. It was essentially a bigger and stronger Perfect Storm 1991 forced inland. This setup is nothing like that. 

This path is what typically we get with hurricanes up here. It moves rapidly up the coast in a NNE direction and if it hits land, it hits long Island or eastern New England.

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Nothing at all like Sandy. That was only so intense up here because it phased with a powerful mid latitude trough and was forced to by the blocking NE of it. It was essentially a bigger and stronger Perfect Storm 1991 forced inland. This setup is nothing like that. 

right and  it wasn't a tropical cyclone up here, that's why we didn't have any tropical cyclone watches or warnings.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, lee59 said:

This path is what typically we get with hurricanes up here. It moves rapidly up the coast in a NNE direction and if it hits land, it hits long Island or eastern New England.

thats correct, this is a typical path  where NYC and western Nassau dont get much in the way of wind effects.....we do get heavier rain, which is typically about 100 miles west of the center track, but the winds typically arent any stronger than what you'd normally see from a noreaster.

 

[wdrag]

I'm staying off the EC for now (despite 2 of 3 similar runs the past 3 cycles), but do note a seeming trend to a more robust eastern seaboard-just off the coast solutions.  Expert input sought...

 

My guess is that despite cooling SST's as this storm moves north beyond NC,  storm intensity may maintain due to pretty strong RRQ of the upper level jet and we should see an expansion of the tropical wind field. That's what I'm looking for.  Let me know why this steady state intensity won't happen as the storm passes by LI. (how far east of?)

Also: rains tonight, Sat night-Sunday afternoon-eve will be moistening up some of the areas with 3+" storms totals by daybreak Monday (i think).  Then do we rely on ISAIAS direct left side heavy rain to douse us, or can ISAIAS pass by to the se of LI but a PRE occurs in the coastal plain with a big 6 hour dump Monday or Tuesday, 18 hrs before ISAIAS passes by?? The PRE is my interest...  

I still cant buy an eastern LI hit but updated ensembles the next several days can change my mind.  For now, I'm hugging the NHC cone to embrace primary surge/wind/wave and primary ISAIAS rainfall. 450P/30

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

48 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

When storms are recurving NE near our area, they are often choking on dry air, getting sheared quite a bit and affected by cool waters. Water here is warmer than normal but not enough to sustain a near major hurricane. I would say at max it would be a strong TS up here. I’d hope to be on the west side where the rain would be. Also more likely is it tracks NE from Cape Hatteras and is entirely out to sea other than high waves. 

Gloria was supposed to rock LI as A major. Obviously that Did not happen.  We have seen time and time again with storms taking a similar track that land interaction removes categories. 
In order for us to ever get a real major we need a 38 redux with a storm on a NNW track avoiding said land interaction 

[Brian5671]

Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Gloria was supposed to rock LI as A major. Obviously that Did not happen.  We have seen time and time again with storms taking a similar track that land interaction removes categories. 
In order for us to ever get a real major we need a 38 redux with a storm on a NNW track avoiding said land interaction 

completely agree-anything skirting the coast is going to have issues with dry air ingestion, cooler waters, etc.   Fast speed and above normal water temps would help here, but would still guess the strength of the storm would be over forecast as Irene and Gloria were 

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Gloria was supposed to rock LI as A major. Obviously that Did not happen.  We have seen time and time again with storms taking a similar track that land interaction removes categories. 
In order for us to ever get a real major we need a 38 redux with a storm on a NNW track avoiding said land interaction 

it's ironic because Gloria was mapped out to be a 130 mph borderline Cat 4 when it was abreast of ACY- that was obviously not right.

 

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Gloria was supposed to rock LI as A major. Obviously that Did not happen.  We have seen time and time again with storms taking a similar track that land interaction removes categories. 
In order for us to ever get a real major we need a 38 redux with a storm on a NNW track avoiding said land interaction 

Besides 1938 what were the other majors that hit Long Island or NYC?  1944?  Carol?  Donna?  Maybe that 1821 hurricane?  I cant think of any others.

 

[dmillz25]

When was the last time the Northeast was affected by two TCs in one year?

[LibertyBell]

Just now, dmillz25 said:

When was the last time the Northeast was affected by two TCs in one year?

in 1985 we had Gloria and one insignificant TS that hit eastern LI

 

[nycwinter]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

in 1985 we had Gloria and one insignificant TS that hit eastern LI

 

i was about to say that...

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Besides 1938 what were the other majors that hit Long Island or NYC?  1944?  Carol?  Donna?  Maybe that 1821 hurricane?  I cant think of any others.

 

38 and carol were the only legit majors during modern times. 1821 and 1630 are thought to be majors. There was another in the 1300s based on core samples. Obviously they were exceedingly rare for good reason. I suspect that’s about to change 

[lee59]

Gloria was hyped up by the news media, so when it hit some thought it was not that bad. The fact is, at least in my area, the wind damage was about the same as Sandy, it was pretty bad.

[lee59]

This storm, whatever the name is, seems to have held together rather well as it crossed land. I would not be surprised to see this be a hurricane tomorrow.

[Brian5671]

Just now, lee59 said:

This storm, whatever the name is, seems to have held together rather well as it crossed land. I would not be surprised to see this be a hurricane tomorrow.

it just clipped the northeast corner of the island and it was weak, so not much to disrupt anyway.   Agree-it could be off to the races tonight/tomorrow

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Besides 1938 what were the other majors that hit Long Island or NYC?  1944?  Carol?  Donna?  Maybe that 1821 hurricane?  I cant think of any others.

 

Carol was the most recent hurricane to hit Eastern LI snd SNE and still be almost purely tropical. The rapid forward motion didn’t allow for that much time north of Hatteras. Coming just after the peak SSTs of the season in late August probably helped also.

http://www.ryanhanrahan.com/2013/09/01/hurricane-carol-the-monster-of-1954/
 

Hurricane Carol is widely viewed to be the “most tropical” of hurricanes to hit Connecticut. What’s meant by that is that while the storm was likely going extratropical transition – Carol was the most purely tropical of the storms to strike Connecticut. Here’s one example of that – take a look at this picture taken from the old Griswold Hotel in Groton near the mouth of the Thames River.

The storm had a classic “eye” and the precipitation distribution from the storm – both east and west of the storm track – was relatively symmetrical. That’s very unusual for a landfalling New England hurricane!

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

it just clipped the northeast corner of the island and it was weak, so not much to disrupt anyway.   Agree-it could be off to the races tonight/tomorrow

this is a large sized storm, but not strong- as of yet.  It seems like the large storms that aren't very strong are the ones that get least disrupted by land.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

Carol was the most recent hurricane to hit Eastern LI snd SNE and still be almost purely tropical. The rapid forward motion didn’t allow for that much time north of Hatteras. Coming just after the peak SSTs of the season in late August probably helped also.

http://www.ryanhanrahan.com/2013/09/01/hurricane-carol-the-monster-of-1954/
 

Hurricane Carol is widely viewed to be the “most tropical” of hurricanes to hit Connecticut. What’s meant by that is that while the storm was likely going extratropical transition – Carol was the most purely tropical of the storms to strike Connecticut. Here’s one example of that – take a look at this picture taken from the old Griswold Hotel in Groton near the mouth of the Thames River.

The storm had a classic “eye” and the precipitation distribution from the storm – both east and west of the storm track – was relatively symmetrical. That’s very unusual for a landfalling New England hurricane!

wow the 1950s to 1960 were a tropical "paradise" around here- didn't one of those years have three TC's hit the northeast?  Was that the same year that Carol happened?

 

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

wow the 1950s to 1960 were a tropical "paradise" around here- didn't one of those years have three TC's hit the northeast?  Was that the same year that Carol happened?

 

That was 1954 with Carol, Edna, and Hazel. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

That was 1954 with Carol, Edna, and Hazel. 

Right and ironically, I believe Hazel had the strongest winds (it made landfall in the SE and cut west of us.)  Carol was the only one that made LF on Long Island, while Edna clipped Cape Cod.  Interesting that 1954 was the year before the 11 yr cyclic peak summer of 1955 and we're in the same spot again this year.

 

 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Right and ironically, I believe Hazel had the strongest winds (it made landfall in the SE and cut west of us.)  Carol was the only one that made LF on Long Island, while Edna clipped Cape Cod.  Interesting that 1954 was the year before the 11 yr cyclic peak summer of 1955 and we're in the same spot again this year.

 

 

imagine a storm cutting up the DELMARVA going NW-we'd see some serious winds on that track.

[rclab]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That was 1954 with Carol, Edna, and Hazel. 

I was Seven when those storms hit. My neighborhood was Dyker Heights. More above ground wires then. Our power on 75th st went out for each of those storms. Candles in the dark with lashing rain against the picture window, was very impressive for a child. I remember many trees down andblocking side streets for at least on pe of the storms. That might have been Hazel. As always. ....

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

imagine a storm cutting up the DELMARVA going NW-we'd see some serious winds on that track.

Yeah something like Isabel but farther NE than that storm.

 

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

in 1985 we had Gloria and one insignificant TS that hit eastern LI

 

I remember... Tropical storm Henry 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I remember... Tropical storm Henry 

Yep, I personally dont remember it but I remember Gloria lol.  Didn't Henry make landfall just before Gloria did?  I remember days of rainfall before Gloria hit, maybe that was Henry?

 

[LibertyBell]

Based on the 100 mile rule, if you want the heaviest rainfall from a TC you want it the center to be about 100 miles to your east.  I remember when Gloria made LF near Bay Shore, the heaviest rains were right over NYC.  When Bob made LF between MTP and Block Island, the heaviest rains were in Queens and Nassau County.  When Floyd made landfall on Jones Beach, the heaviest rains were in NJ and NE PA.  When Irene made landfall near Coney Island, the heaviest rains were in NJ.  When Bertha made landfall near JFK the heaviest rains were in the Poconos.  etc.....

 

[Will - Rutgers]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Based on the 100 mile rule, if you want the heaviest rainfall from a TC you want it the center to be about 100 miles to your east.  I remember when Gloria made LF near Bay Shore, the heaviest rains were right over NYC.  When Bob made LF between MTP and Block Island, the heaviest rains were in Queens and Nassau County.  When Floyd made landfall on Jones Beach, the heaviest rains were in NJ and NE PA.  When Irene made landfall near Coney Island, the heaviest rains were in NJ.  When Bertha made landfall near JFK the heaviest rains were in the Poconos.  etc.....

 

I think rainfall will be relatively muted for a TC.  The models have the storm screaming up the coast.  Just not enough time for bigger rains.