Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Need the messenger late bump east to get in in the good rains. I’ll pass on a rogue 10pm 40mph gust up here. 

I never do good with NW gusts because of my hill and trees but I have unlimited to horizen exposure to the south.  No trees around the house that can do damage so it will be fun.   Just need to get gas for the geny.  At least comfortable weather later this week.  We have not had any big thunderstorm wind in my area for a few years so even 25-35mph with lollies to 40mph can cause power outages.  Unlike a quick gusts front a few hours of winds like this are going to lead to scattered power outages.

 

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8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

go ahead.  It'll probably be the same thread as we might not have any other threats this season.  :) 

 

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...I mean it may get confusing when we get our 2nd and 3rd canes of the season. Maybe even 5. 

6-10 threats 

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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Aint' exactly a "batten down the hatches" kind of storm.  Tropical season in NE lives on.

 

525 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Milford
    - Worcester

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph

:poster_stupid:

Today
Sunny, with a high near 92. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Tonight
A slight chance of showers after 2am. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 72. Southwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 84. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Windy, with a south wind 23 to 28 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Southwest wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

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I do pretty well with southerly flow too. It’s probably my best wind direction based on how close my sustained wind speeds tend to be with gusts. Out of the W-NW I get peak winds like 13G30mph but my open south side nets me winds like 22G30mph. I’m sure 38 did quite a bit of damage in my spot. We’ll need to stay in this soupy airmass for the best mixing during the night hours. If this goes a little more E and we wedge a bit it’s ovah.

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3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Doesn't look too bad on first vis.   CDO has expanded west.  On radar some nice rotation around center.  Surely doesn't look like a classic cane but have seen worse TS's

IR tops warmed even during nighttime max. It's been a bag of COVID its whole life anyways I suppose. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s never going to look pretty . It’s transitioning. All about the phase 

It won't really transition much.

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Key West morning out there for sure. My windows were all fogged up like an overnight warm frontal passage in January. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro sucked with this one. The timing differences from 12z run yesterday vs 00z last night are LOL. Go America.

Be luck if we see 30mph gusts and 1/4" of rain at this point.

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Barely any rain and a stiff breeze in my neck of the woods, yuck.  My water bill is going to be sky high with how much we're using to keep the grass from going yellow, in the words of the late/great Rodney Dangerfield "let's go while we're young!"

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6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Be luck if we see 30mph gusts and 1/4" of rain at this point.

06z 3km NAM 0.10"

06z 12KM NAM 0.33"

00z RGEM 0.25"

00z GGEM 0.50"

00z Euro 0.25"

00z Ukie 0.50"

06z GFS 0.60"

Was hoping for at least 1"

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10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

06z 3km NAM 0.10"

06z 12KM NAM 0.33"

00z RGEM 0.25"

00z GGEM 0.50"

00z Euro 0.25"

00z Ukie 0.50"

06z GFS 0.60"

Was hoping for at least 1"

You'll be lucky for 0.3".   We are getting close if not surpassing 2016 for dryness.

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1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is it even going to rain?

It's more like a cane devil. Just a lot of blowing sand.

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

All the best forcing for rain is west of the circulation.  Gonna be huge disappointment around eastern areas.

Yeah I think at this juncture anyone looking for or thinking we'll see widespread heavy rainfall is misguided. There will be some heavy rain...just not as widespread as some are thinking. At this juncture the greatest concern is

1) Winds and power outage potential 

2) Major coastal flooding

3) Risk for isolated tornadoes

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I think at this juncture anyone looking for or thinking we'll see widespread heavy rainfall is misguided. There will be some heavy rain...just not as widespread as some are thinking. At this juncture the greatest concern is

1) Winds and power outage potential 

2) Major coastal flooding

3) Risk for isolated tornadoes

To all 3 of those points, I think the greatest risks in New England are in western areas.  Not saying we can't rule out a rogue spin up or rain band, I just see the majority of issues being over W NE.

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6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

To all 3 of those points, I think the greatest risks in New England are in western areas.  Not saying we can't rule out a rogue spin up or rain band, I just see the majority of issues being over W NE.

certainly don't disagree with that. Outside of perhaps some gusty winds and showers with could give some a nice little drink you guys out in the east are going to be shafted 

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5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

To all 3 of those points, I think the greatest risks in New England are in western areas.  Not saying we can't rule out a rogue spin up or rain band, I just see the majority of issues being over W NE.

Wind especially Hartford south and east. Eastern Mass is out of this one.

20200803_083523.jpg

20200803_083541.jpg

Screenshot_20200803-084041_Thermometer.jpg

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This situation that we're dealing with is why I am legit scared of a major hurricane impacting us. I mean think about it...our window of knowing like 100% certain that we will get nailed is like what...maybe 8-12 hours? Sure we can have an idea it will happen and make necessary preparations but there is still that uncertainty...by the time we really are certain it's too late to really act. It would be an absolute disaster, especially if you ever had to talk evacuations. How many people are really going to take something seriously when the main wording is "we still don't know"? 

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Nah LLJ goes right over us. Those maps are terrible. Where it shows peak winds in Berks, they'll be inverted a bit.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah LLJ goes right over us. Those maps are terrible. Where it shows peak winds in Berks, they'll be inverted a bit.

? Thats the CRV. Those are Euro maps

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

? Thats the CRV. Those are Euro maps

And we say time and time again the algorithms use awful calculations. Ryan said he has 30-40 inland and 40-55 on S coast. I could see some 60mph gusts too.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It won't really transition much.

Yeah... agreed - give 'im credit for trying, tho.  Heh.

but yeah no this is a very deep barotropic air mass... I bet the Bahama sounding over Logan at this point.  In fact, I might have mentioned this the other day, that there were semblances in the runs for a "Bahama Blue" pattern ...and well, this is essentially it. Or at least it will be 24 hours from now.

I have also opined in the ancient past how it never seems to be that a TC is actually around in the exit region of that jet down S but rats bid if we don't actually have that circumstance ...sort of.   Usually, it's a lucky timing issue with a transient trough over WV and a retreating ridge the captures ...  Carol and Hazel..etc   Donna I think all were not really BB patterns but "got lucky" ??  

I think 1938 might have been a late season BBer based on testimonials and accounts of a "...Week of sultry humid weather..." before hand but who knows.   

Anyway, probably it's just a matter of getting two rare phenomenon to land on the same date, ....like it's twice as rare.   Oh if one is a dramatist they prefer it to be a category 3 hurricane and not one COVID coughing its way up the coast both too slow and two week and technically ... not even on the right trajectory to even remotely justify 30 f'n pages of coverage ... but, what's the alternative - right

But with ...whatever form this thing has as it moves N, it will be anomalously embedded all quadrants inside a rather sub-tropical transport all the way up. The phase transition may be delayed over climo because of that.  This is mostly going to be a failed momentum in the first place, then losing warm water as it fringes land.  Even the Bite waters are nearing 80, ...albeit shallow, but really... That's a 'nother thing...I've often wondered if a Cat 4 ever turned the corner in these modern times ...while it is 80 F SST at buoy/station 44025 ...  As a tremendous stroke of luck to civility I suppose, the climo for LI express is after Sept 5th ...when we've already shed 5 to 7 F off those shallow numbers. 

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