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Hoosier

June 2020 General Discussion

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11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

madison area about to post some big rain numbers

yeah the airport might not get the super high amounts but the west side of town already has 2.5" plus

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Don't know if lake breeze cumulus are going to do anything today.  Even if storms do fire they'll probably just sit in place instead of moving east and giving inland areas needed rain.  Could really use a little more rain here before the death ridge takes total control.  Next cold front doesn't come until the 8th or 9th according to the ECMWF.  :(

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5 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

models develop an interesting little low over western IL the next 24 hours

PW vales >2  and 500mb temps warming to -3 C on NAM

Looks like an MCV similar to the one that produced flooding near Minneapolis last night could develop with the shortwave moving in from OK/KS tonight. Not the best agreement on where things set up exactly, but some places in MO and the southern half of IL will likely post some big rainfall totals from it in the next 24-36h.14743332_ScreenShot2020-06-29at5_23_36PM.thumb.jpg.a6edf70fec6f20548fbd64acd200f223.jpg

 

 

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1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Overnight lows are too warm for best climo. :bike:

Lion’s Den on Lake Michigan a bit north of Milwaukee may be best summer climo.  Yesterday for example their high was 69F.

Today’s high temp has been 75F.

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4 hours ago, madwx said:

yeah the airport might not get the super high amounts but the west side of town already has 2.5" plus

Nearly hydroplaned on Mineral Point eastbound just off the Beltline on my way home.

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8 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

NAM is a "tad"  bullish with rainfall amounts in SW IL

Just a little

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Over 5 inches of rain in southeast Louisville today while southwest parts of the city zilch. Been some crazy heavy rain totals across parts of KY the past few days. A road in Willisburg, KY was said to be under 10 feet of water this morning after over 7 inches of rain in a few hours.

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7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Just a little

06z NAM didn't back off.....

already 4-8 inches in the Quincy area

MS river river was already at or near flood stage form there to just north of STL

models have the whole stem from UIN to mouth of OH river dumped on

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I'm already seeing some pissed off cumulus this morning, with other storms already formed  along the old boundary in Indiana.  They are nearly stationary and someone is going to get dumped on while most just bake. Gotta love midsummer Midwest weather.

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Another half inch of rain overnight with some of the loudest house shaking thunder I’ve experienced in a few years.

Probably will lose 30 pounds of sweat working outside in these dews today. 

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12HRRR is just crazy for western  IL/ NE MO...keep rains going almost nonstop(expect a couple hours maybe this afternoon) for the next 24 hours as the area gets caught in a WAA wing of a MCS overnight

 

This over areas that have 4-8 inches already

 

IF this correct 10-13 inch amounts possible

 

 

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42 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

12HRRR is just crazy for western  IL/ NE MO...keep rains going almost nonstop(expect a couple hours maybe this afternoon) for the next 24 hours as the area gets caught in a WAA wing of a MCS overnight

 

This over areas that have 4-8 inches already

 

IF this correct 10-13 inch amounts possible

 

 

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0407  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1004 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA, EASTERN MO, SOUTHERN IL,  
WESTERN KY  
  
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY  
  
VALID 301404Z - 302000Z  
  
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV AND LLJ  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES TO 2"/HR ARE  
LIKELY, PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF RAIN, WITH ISOLATED  
AMOUNTS TO 5" POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE AND PERSIST  
ONGOING FLASH FLOODING.  
  
DISCUSSION...GOES-16 IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN EXTENDED  
CLUSTER OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA TO AS FAR  
SOUTH AS CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE OF A REGION OF  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BENEATH IT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV NEAR  
THE IL/IA/MO BORDER, AS WELL AS ALONG THE NOSE OF A ROBUST LLJ  
ARCING FROM THE SW AT 30-40KTS. 12Z U/A SOUNDINGS INDICATED PWS OF  
1.57" AT DVN AND 1.68" AT ILX, BOTH AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH  
PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE, WITH GPS TPW OBSERVATIONS INDICATING PWS  
TO 1.8" LURKING JUST SW OF THE AREA. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AT ILX WERE  
MEASURED AT ALMOST 13,500 FT, AND A RIBBON OF MUCAPE OF GREATER  
THAN 2000 J/KG WAS ANALYZED BY THE RECENT RAP, WITH A MODEST WEST  
TO EAST INSTABILITY GRADIENT PRESENT ACROSS THE CLUSTER OF  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
  
ALTHOUGH THE HIGH-RES CAMS DIFFER AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE  
CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A  
CONTINUATION OF THE BI-MODAL DISTRIBUTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  
  
THE FIRST IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MCV WHICH IS FORECAST  
TO PIVOT NEARLY IN PLACE ACROSS SE IA. AS THIS SPINS, AN ENHANCED  
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AND INTENSIFY TO ITS S/SW  
AS MODEST 850MB INFLOW SUPPLIES EXTREME INSTABILITY (MUCAPE RISING  
TO 3000 J/KG) AND ANOMALOUS PWS APPROACHING 2". WHILE SOME SUBTLE  
W/SW MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY, IT WILL BE SLOW TO DRIFT  
AS IT ENCOUNTERS WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST,  
SUGGESTING REGENERATION AND TRAINING/BACKBUILDING ALONG IT WITH  
LITTLE DISPLACEMENT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL WITH RATES POTENTIALLY RISING TO 2"/HR OR MORE. MUCH OF  
THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED MRMS ESTIMATED RAINFALL OF 2-4"  
WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN 6" IN THE LAST 12 HOURS, SO SOILS ARE  
PRE-SATURATED AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WOULD ENHANCE ONGOING  
FLASH FLOODING. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS  
LOCALLY DOUBLE THAT IS LIKELY AS SHOWN BY THE RECENT HRRRV4,  
HRRRV3, AND ARW.  
  
FURTHER SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN IL AND INTO WESTERN KY, A SECONDARY  
MAXIMA IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ MORE IMPRESSIVELY  
DRIVES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORT. DEEPENING  
WARM CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO MUCAPE RISING  
TOWARDS 4000 J/KG AND PWS IN EXCESS OF 2" SUGGESTS RAIN RATES WILL  
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY EXCEED 2"/HR AS WELL. WHILE THERE  
EXISTS MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A LAG IN  
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY, THE ROBUST LLJ AND EXTREME THERMODYNAMICS  
ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST  
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTN. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE FAVORABLE FOR  
BACKBUILDING, AND WHERE EXCESSIVE RAIN RATES CAN TRAIN, AN  
ADDITIONAL 1-3" WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 5" ARE POSSIBLE. THIS  
WILL PROLONG AND ENHANCE FLASH FLOODING.  
  
WEISS  

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