uofmiami Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: I believe this is the first year that CAR and BTV beat both the May and June high temperatures at EWR and LGA. So far, it’s the warm season of onshore flow and the strongest heat going to our north. CAR May...91 Jun....96 BTV May....95 Jun.....96 EWR May....86 Jun....92 LGA May....86 Jun....93 It’s the stagnant pattern. Some keep talking of 90+ constantly and it’s not happening. While we may get a day here or there, any talk of 90+ days consistently (heatwave) in the extended never happens as we get close to those forecasted hot days. Let’s just enjoy the mid to upper 80s for now, maybe 90 in the relaxation of onshore flow before it comes back yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 27, 2020 Author Share Posted June 27, 2020 High for the yesterday was 89 here. Current temp 76/DP 65/RH 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 Maybe no heat waves this month, but still it's been very warm...month will finish with a significant plus departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 30 minutes ago, uofmiami said: It’s the stagnant pattern. Some keep talking of 90+ constantly and it’s not happening. While we may get a day here or there, any talk of 90+ days consistently (heatwave) in the extended never happens as we get close to those forecasted hot days. Let’s just enjoy the mid to upper 80s for now, maybe 90 in the relaxation of onshore flow before it comes back yet again. The 95+ degree high end temperature potential has been muted so far by the pattern. But the dry conditions have allowed the maximum departures to beat the minimums. EWR max...+2.5 min....+1.2 LGA max....+3.6 min.....+4.0 NYC max....+2.6 min.....+2.1 ISP max....+3.2 min....+1.4 JFK max..+2.0 min....0.0 BDR max...+2.7 min....+2.2 HPN max.....+2.8 min......+0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 6/27: ACY: 91 PHL: 89 TTN: 88 (0.27) BLM: 88 (0.28) EWR: 86 (0.10) LGA: 85 (0.25) New Brnswck: 84 (0.09) TEB: 81 (0.14) ISP: 80 (0.46) JFK: 80 (0.24) NYC: 80 (0.09) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 Today saw New York City's first measurable precipitation since June 11. Drier weather should follow tomorrow. In Europe, Norway experience record heat. Some highlights: Bromoysund: 82° (tied June record) Orland Iii: 84° (new June record) Roros Lufthavn: 82° (new daily record) Trondheim: 93° (new all-time record) A predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change during July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. The CFSv2, which has now moved into its skillful range for its monthly forecasts, and the EPS weeklies favor a warmer than normal July across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -4.64 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.566. On June 26, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.680 (RMM). The June 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.676. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: SAL Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 rjay had better colors than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 Dewpoints in the low 70s for much of the area. May provide lows that dont move much and pave the way for strong runway and temp launch tomorrow. May fuel evening storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 83/65 split yesterday with 0.08" rain...currently 72°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 The last 3 days of June are averaging 78degs , or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +2.4[73.4]. June should end at +2.5[73.9]. The first 10 days of July are down again*-to an average of 81 or +5(still a record pace if it held for a month) *Was 86, 83 now 81. 74* here at 6am, hazy blue. 80* by Noon with encroaching cumulus to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 Warming up quick. warm, humid morning 81 dew 72, HI 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 While the June high temperature departures have been well above normal at EWR and LGA, there hasn’t been an excessive number of 90 degree days for June. The +2.5 high temperature departure at Newark at 83.6 is the 10th warmest. The +3.5 at LGA and 83.6 is 5th warmest. But there has been a record number of 88 degree days at LGA and 2nd place so for at Newark. LGA also recorded the 3rd highest number of 89 degree days for June. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature = 88 Missing Count 1 1993 7 0 2 2020 5 3 - 1934 5 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature = 88 Missing Count 1 2020 4 3 2 1994 3 0 - 1987 3 0 - 1986 3 0 - 1976 3 0 - 1965 3 0 - 1961 3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature = 89 Missing Count 1 2013 4 0 2 1962 3 0 3 2020 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 Spc upgrades our area to slight risk today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 Already 81 / 69 here. Looking sunny for a while. Should get into the low 90s today for many spots with storms later. Hope to get some much needed rains. Mon and Tue more of the same with temps near 90 assuming more sunshine. Tue - Thu cut off over New England keep the flow out of the N and chances for unsettled weather each of the three days. Beyond there the ULL is moving off New England by Friday and things heat up for the Fourth of July weekend. Another weakness pushes into the TN valley which may cause some onshore winds Mon (7/6) mainly on the coast. Overall hot pattern the week of 7/5 with mainly scattered storms as things are looking. ECM is building another very strong ridge into the GL by the 12th but that is way out there. LEts see if the tendency this season is relenting and the 7/5 week sees the first widespread heatwave potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 Probably another hour or two of mostly sunny conditions before more clouds develop and move in. 10Am Roundup LGA: 84 EWR: 84 ACY: 83 New Brnswck: 83 ISP: 82 TEB: 82 JFK: 81 PHL: 81 NYC: 81 TTN: 80 BLM: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 81 here under a blazing sun, RH @ 68% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 Based on the OKX 12z sounding, storms should remain strong to severe right down to Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 28, 2020 Author Share Posted June 28, 2020 Warm and humid morning out there. Current temp 84/DP 71/RH 65% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 87/73 out here, looks and feels like Florida right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 11AM ROundup; ACY: 88 LGA: 86 EWR: 86 New Brnswck: 85 ISP: 85 NYC: 84 PHL: 83 TEB: 83 BLM: 82 JFK: 82 TTN: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Cfa said: 87/73 out here, looks and feels like Florida right now. Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 28, 2020 Author Share Posted June 28, 2020 Current temp 88/DP 69/RH 53% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 First storm of the day firing on the sea breeze front in Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 77f sunny nw nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 1 minute ago, bluewave said: First storm of the day firing o the sea breeze front in Nassau. Can see the cumulus tower on that storm from Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: First storm of the day firing o the sea breeze front in Nassau. Heading my way, underneath its clouds now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 ewr 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Cfa said: Heading my way, underneath its clouds now. Gonna die out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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