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olafminesaw

5/18-5/22 flooding rain event

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GFS is back up to over 6" for the RDU area for the event. Locally, we're sitting at about 0.40" so far.

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The persistent wind gusts are impressive.  Really doing a fine job of clearing out weak trees and dead branches.  Had a widowmaker fall in the back yard.  Trees are bouncing on power lines somewhere close by.  Where was this cutoff low in January??

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47 minutes ago, gman said:

50 degrees.Windy. Now up to 8.70”. 

Impressive. Some good training going on in the upstate with no signs of letting up. Radar estimates over 10 inches now showing up.

Got around 3 inches here...was getting a little dry so glad to get it. 

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50 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

What is your location, gman. I can't see it on Tapatalk.

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
 

I am about 1 mile from the entrance of Paris Mtn. State Park, just off State Park Rd, where it meets Mtn. Creek Rd.  I am near Piedmont Park Fire Department. Edit to add, this is getting serious. We've gotten another 0.70" in the last 45 minutes. Radar and satellite show the cutoff upper level low just west of us is not moving. Train effect rains for hours to come. Trees fallling everywhere, including on I-85 south. It's going to be a long day and night.  

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Looking at the radar, specifically the area of heavy moisture moving into the Midlands toward the S.C. beaches. Since thunderstorms are beginning to blow up, I am hoping it takes some energy from the upper level cutoff low. Could that diminish the heavy rain for the Upstate? 

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15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Up to around 3.50" here , with the latest 12Z HRRR  showing another 5-6" possible in the next 36 hrs....

Dan is gonna go above 25 feet again probably 

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The hires models are showing a band setting up and training over one area somewhere in the Piedmont. Wherever it gets stuck is going to get pounded with at least 2-4" through tommorow morning. As of now concensus seems to put the bullseye somewhere in between the Triad and Triangle up to around Roanoke

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looks like a new area of training showers is setting up ahead of the main batch of moisture. we already have a little over 2” storm total here in western Durham county and weren’t slated to get the heavy stuff until this evening. I wonder if RAH is finally going to pull the trigger for a FFW for counties further east. 

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5 hours ago, gman said:

50 degrees.Windy. Now up to 8.70”. 

Ouch. I am thankful i missed that train line this am by just a few miles to my SE. I'm sitting at 6.54 and that's plenty, but more on the way.

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2 hours ago, featherwx said:

looks like a new area of training showers is setting up ahead of the main batch of moisture. we already have a little over 2” storm total here in western Durham county and weren’t slated to get the heavy stuff until this evening. I wonder if RAH is finally going to pull the trigger for a FFW for counties further east. 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
345 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

.A slow-moving upper level low over the Tennessee Valley will
result in multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall with
embedded thunderstorms through Thursday night. Many areas over the
western Piedmont have already received 1-3 inches of rain,
resulting in increased flow in creeks and streams. Additional
rainfall of up to 2-5 inches will lead to localized flash flood
and minor flooding on main stem rivers.

NCZ007-024-025-041-042-078-089-220000-
/O.EXA.KRAH.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-200522T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Person-Orange-Durham-Wake-Johnston-Wayne-Sampson-
Including the cities of Roxboro, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill,
Carrboro, Durham, Rougemont, Raleigh, Cary, Apex, Wake Forest,
Knightdale, Smithfield, Selma, Clayton, Goldsboro, Clinton,
and Roseboro
345 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of central North
  Carolina, including the following areas, Durham, Johnston,
  Orange, Person, Sampson, Wake, and Wayne.

* Through Thursday evening

* Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain will result in
  additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches, with locally
  higher amounts around 4 inches possible over the western
  Piedmont.

* Rapid rises on creeks and streams, as well as flooding of low-
  level areas, may occur, especially in urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
Monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
flash flood warnings be issued.

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I'm at 7.4 inches now with moderate showers off and on. Catawba river is about to surpass its level yesterday, its at 11.18 now in minor flood stage 

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I am currently at 4.99” for the event. Since it is still raining I could have waited a minute or two and reported 5”.  :)

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I'm seriously going postal if it stays cloudy / rainy into next week.  Look for me on the 11 oclock news next Thursday night.  I'll give a shoutout to the SE forum as they handcuff me.  

It looked like a tornado went through my farm in Stuart last night.  The amount of tree debris, downed trees and broken limbs was amazing.  Dan River had some white caps on the ride home this afternoon.  

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