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May 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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36 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

lots of cold fronts in april and early may went down to the gulf coast cooling the gulf..

Thank you, that is informative. Do we know whether the surface actually got cooled or was the surface warmth just mushed in with the colder water deeper down?

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The last 8 days of May are averaging 68degs., or 1.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -3.5[57.7].         May should end at  -2.1[60.3].

EURO/EPS still not liking even the 80's over the next 15 days.       GFS OP has shown the 90's somewhere in its runs for the last 3 weeks!

54* here at 6am.     53* at 6:30am.      55* at 7am.        57* by 10:00am.      60* at 11:00am.     63* at Noon.       64* at 1pm.          59* by 9pm.

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13 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I thought we had that last year?

This year the cold pool extends further south down the coast than last year. It was mostly just east of New England at this time last year. Notice how much cooler the SST’s are off the entire East Coast now. This is a function of the much cooler April and May than last year. 

This year

254739FF-0A27-49DD-BA5A-B2D0ED88C343.gif.32e89258411c4fc9d89bc745316d66bb.gif

Last year

03B4765D-5CB2-45FC-838F-D4F6EA68B1C9.gif.b604e4905d9330f49dd24650efe97a2d.gif

Difference 

5B494321-B271-4762-94D3-244A5965036C.gif.cce44c63df146cf9549b416f88332da8.gif

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Down to 51 last night.  0.59 in the bucket.  Cool and a bit breezy NE wind.  Clouds generally moving NE to SW with some breaks over LI and N-NJ so far.  

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11 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Doesn't look like a water temp pattern that would promote much for tropical storm development or even movement this far north.

These SST patterns can shift very quickly since they just respond to the surface and upper air patterns. So it usually comes down to what they do as we approach the peak of the hurricane season later on. But in the near term, the cooler SST’s and MJO will promote more of a trough pattern over the Northeast as we start a June. So the first 90 of the season will probably be late compared to recent years.

7DE8F586-9E67-46F7-ADF8-89024AF37E1E.thumb.png.6e84ea93d1bdfdd899bc97b69173644e.png


5F6407E0-1E30-4884-BCD8-276CFD7C6C57.gif.59b06eed6ddb3e27d428e6f6d6c3aaee.gif

 

 

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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These SST patterns can shift very quickly since they just respond to the surface and upper air patterns. So it usually comes down to what they do as we approach the peak of the hurricane season later on. But in the near term, the cooler SST’s and MJO will promote more of a trough pattern over the Northeast as we start a June. So the first 90 of the season will probably be late compared to recent years.

7DE8F586-9E67-46F7-ADF8-89024AF37E1E.thumb.png.6e84ea93d1bdfdd899bc97b69173644e.png


5F6407E0-1E30-4884-BCD8-276CFD7C6C57.gif.59b06eed6ddb3e27d428e6f6d6c3aaee.gif

 

 

Sounds like mean trough will be over the NE this summer and flip back to the West just in time for winter

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37 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Doesn't look like a water temp pattern that would promote much for tropical storm development or even movement this far north.

It’s the warm anomalies east of the Bahamas that will produce. And its local weather patterns that allow for hits here. If things line up any year can cause a hit here. I have a strong feeling we at least have a brush this year.

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23 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

as invigorating a morning for the city as you can get probably until mid october lol..

This will be one of the coolest  Memorial Day weekends (Sat-Mon) since 2010 in NYC. It’s only the 3rd year with no 85+ high temperatures in Central Park. 
 

Memorial Day weekend(Sat-Mon) maximum high in NYC since 2010

2019...86

2018...89

2017...71

2016...92

2015...85

2014...86

2013...73

2012...89

2011...86

2010...86

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10 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Who else thinks that we could have a cooler than average summer with as low as 5 or fewer 90+ degree days in KNYC?

5 or fewer 90 degree days might be a record..It would be a year without a Summer 2

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Euro still has no 90 degree days at Newark through the end of May. So it looks like the first time since 2014.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
Minimum 04-07 (2010) 08-08 (2011) 69
Mean 05-21 09-12 113
Maximum 06-17 (2014) 10-02 (2019)
2019 05-26 (2019) 90 10-02 (2019) 96 128
2018 05-02 (2018) 90 09-06 (2018) 98 126
2017 05-17 (2017) 92 09-25 (2017) 90 130
2016 05-25 (2016) 91 09-23 (2016) 90 120
2015 05-25 (2015) 90 09-09 (2015) 91 106
2014 06-17 (2014) 91 09-06 (2014) 95 80
2013 05-30 (2013) 93 09-11 (2013) 96 103
2012 05-28 (2012) 91 09-07 (2012) 90 101
2011 05-30 (2011) 92 08-08 (2011) 93 69
2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 90 170

 

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This may be the first Memorial Day weekend that was warmer in portions of the Arctic than our area.

 

 

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3 hours ago, [email protected] said:

There are a lot of similarities to 1992.

I was thinking the same but 1992 had a heat wave in May which turned out the hottest of the year...temps averaged below normal from March to November in 92...el nino lingered longer too...there is a difference between this May and May 92...

 

may92.png

may20.png

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10 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I was thinking the same but 1992 had a heat wave in May which turned out the hottest of the year...temps averaged below normal from March to November in 92...el nino lingered longer too...there is a difference between this May and May 92...

 

may92.png

may20.png

 

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Close to a heatwave early next week in Quebec. Montreal forecasted to go into the low 90s on Wednesday with upper 80s on Tuesday and Thursday.

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The temperature rose into the middle 60s this afternoon as the sun returned. At Playland Beach in Rye, access to the Boardwalk and beach were limited to Westchester County residents. Residency was verified at a police checkpoint. Visitors were also required to have masks. One elderly couple with New Hampshire license plates was turned away in front of me.

The beach was not very crowded. There was a police officer on the beach to enforce social distancing.  Messages about social distancing and the wearing of masks whenever one was less than 6 feet from another person were repeatedly broadcast over a sound system. Approximately one-third of the beach was closed.

Three photos:

Rye05242020-6.jpg

Rye05242020-5.jpg

Rye05242020-4.jpg

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16 minutes ago, doncat said:

Even 70° has been hard to come by, only reaching it once past eight days here.

7 days reaching 70 at Newark since April 1st is a new record low.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Apr 1 to May 24
Missing Count
1 2020-05-24 7 1
2 1967-05-24 9 0
- 1966-05-24 9 0
3 2003-05-24 12 0
- 1997-05-24 12 0
- 1978-05-24 12 0
- 1968-05-24 12 0
- 1950-05-24 12 0
- 1948-05-24 12 0
- 1940-05-24 12 0
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49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

7 days reaching 70 at Newark since April 1st is a new record low.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Apr 1 to May 24
Missing Count
1 2020-05-24 7 1
2 1967-05-24 9 0
- 1966-05-24 9 0
3 2003-05-24 12 0
- 1997-05-24 12 0
- 1978-05-24 12 0
- 1968-05-24 12 0
- 1950-05-24 12 0
- 1948-05-24 12 0
- 1940-05-24 12 0

While NNE and the Arctic bake in the 80s. Can’t make this up.

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Clouds broke for sunshine this afternoon sending readings well into the 60s.

Tomorrow should again feature partly sunny skies. Warmer temperatures appear likely during the closing days of May. However, no excessive heat appears likely for at least the next 10-14 days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. ENSO Region anomalies, which cooled slightly during the last week of April, could continue a steady cooling through the remainder of May.

The SOI has continued to experience an increased tendency for positive values during May. For the May 1-23 period, the SOI was positive on 16 (70%) days. In April, the SOI was positive on 17 (57%) days. During the February-March period, the SOI was positive on 38% days. This shift in tendencies may further reinforce or reflect the idea that ENSO region anomalies could continue to cool.

The SOI was not available today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.084.

On May 23, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.642 (RMM). The May 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.237.

Considerable uncertainty exists with regard to June. The May 21 0z EPS weeklies remained consistent with earlier EPS guidance favoring a cooler than normal June. The CFSv2 has been very consistent in showing an area of warm anomalies in the Northeast. However, the CFSv2 is just nearing its skillful range.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May. May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.4°.

 

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10 hours ago, psv88 said:

While NNE and the Arctic bake in the 80s. Can’t make this up.

Yeah, NNE and Canada will reach 90 before we do this year.

31749316-B9CC-466A-B59B-9A2D843F8E59.gif.57df2606c9dc4f9be9bf5ae0a831a00c.gif

 

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The last 7 days of May are averaging 68degs., or 1,5degs. AN.

Month to to date is  -3.6[57.8].        May should end at  -2.3[60.1].

57* here at 6am.       58* at 7am.          64* by 11am.        66* ---64* ( Noon TO 2pm.)    59*-62* variable Fog between 8-11pm. 

 

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