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April 15-17 Snow


Hoosier
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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Even accounting for some weakening with eastward extent, I am liking the look of upstream radar.  Perhaps a slight northward adjustment to the heavier band.

Looks like the HRRR dropped a tenth of QPF off for you as well, as compared to the earlier runs.  Hope the bleeding stops soon.  DVN sounding shows a fairly significant dry layer that is taking awhile to saturate.  Snow onset is now over 2hrs late for MLI.  So much for bucking the trend for the last event.  I guess the Mon night event overachieved, but would have liked to see a more substantial event overachieve.  Guess we'll have to hope next season isn't so wussy in that regard.

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29 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like the HRRR dropped a tenth of QPF off for you as well, as compared to the earlier runs.  Hope the bleeding stops soon.  DVN sounding shows a fairly significant dry layer that is taking awhile to saturate.  Snow onset is now over 2hrs late for MLI.  So much for bucking the trend for the last event.  I guess the Mon night event overachieved, but would have liked to see a more substantial event overachieve.  Guess we'll have to hope next season isn't so wussy in that regard.

The HRRR can show what it wants.  I am optimistic for a good 5-6" based on radar.  Would even be tempted to add an inch or so more but do have concern that accumulation could largely end after 9-10 am as precip rates decrease and the late August like sun angle rears its head.  

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The HRRR can show what it wants.  I am optimistic for a good 5-6" based on radar.  Would even be tempted to add an inch or so more but do have concern that accumulation could largely end after 9-10 am as precip rates decrease and the late August like sun angle rears its head.  

Well after onset of precip is over 2hrs late and the HRRR is ratcheting down I definitely take notice lol.  Hopefully the precip overperforms to make up for the late start.

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