• Member Statistics

    16,271
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gelavis
    Newest Member
    Gelavis
    Joined
Windspeed

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Recommended Posts

Looks like #30 is coming soon... possibly this weekend 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Eta, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and on 
Tropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing 
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is 
expected to move slowly westward into more conducive environmental 
conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches 
the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, 
this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible 
flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of 
Hispaniola over the next couple of days. For more detailed 
information, refer to products issued by your local weather 
office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ACE is at 163 for the season. If 98L, possible future Iota develops into a hurricane in the Western Caribbean, that should get us to 170. A little bit of irony in that. Several preseason forecasts for a hyperactive season, including CSU/RAMSDIS had 170 ACE, including myself early in the thread. Thought it unwise to forecast higher as it takes a lot of luck and a number of long-tracking high end intense hurricanes. Of course this season being dominated by near-to-land rapid intensification and weaker TCs, it's still pretty phenomenal we made it to 170. Thank the late season burst of hurricanes for powering ACE upwards. I had actually revised my number down a lot back in early October to around 140. Definitely busted on that...lol.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TriPol said:

At what point do they stop naming Greek letters and start naming next year's storms?

There are fifteen letters left in the Greek Alphabet after “Iota” is used.  Theoretically, they would have to use up the entire Greek Alphabet, first.  Since there’s no way we’re getting another 16 “named” TC’s after soon to be “Iota”, we have plenty of names available.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, TriPol said:

At what point do they stop naming Greek letters and start naming next year's storms?

January 1, 2021

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The EPS has quite a members that support the GFS intensity and make landfall further west than the OP or GFS.

ptQE9aI.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For what it is worth, the second post on the Eta forum by yoda (who has my respect):

image.thumb.png.f63d4e7c8f46c307d837f8347a7c8479.png

Interesting if you go back to the beginning of the Eta thread and relive a few pages. ;)

We got our 2020 storm in Tampa Bay. May Iota leave us all alone!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Prospero said:

For what it is worth, the second post on the Eta forum by yoda (who has my respect):

image.thumb.png.f63d4e7c8f46c307d837f8347a7c8479.png

Interesting if you go back to the beginning of the Eta thread and relive a few pages. ;)

We got our 2020 storm in Tampa Bay. May Iota leave us all alone!

It would have to get over quite a ridge to make it up to the CONUS

gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh150-150.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Prospero said:

For what it is worth, the second post on the Eta forum by yoda (who has my respect):

image.thumb.png.f63d4e7c8f46c307d837f8347a7c8479.png

Interesting if you go back to the beginning of the Eta thread and relive a few pages. ;)

We got our 2020 storm in Tampa Bay. May Iota leave us all alone!

Respecting yoda :guitar:

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Respecting yoda :guitar:

Hell, I even respect you ghost! :)

Call me crazy!

Weather is my passion, ever since before I could spell it! (No that was not HS, it was when I was 3 or 4 years old!)

Put me in a room with storm geeks and I am happy. Same with a room full of Dead Heads. Good times and a wild mix of personalities and experience.

Guess tropical discussions are almost over for the season. Will jump into blizzards next, right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, cptcatz said:

It would have to get over quite a ridge to make it up to the CONUS

gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh150-150.gif

That HP system is transient. Really not a major influence. Need to look at upper levels. H5 H2. A upper level ridge may keep it from heading to far west but eventually NW.

15 hours ago, bdgwx said:

HWRF, HMON, COAMPS, and experimental HAFS all have 98L attaining cat 4 intensity.

SSTs are still pretty warm very possible it does. Very favorable upper levels also. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And it doesn't care one Iota that it's November

I know this sounds crazy...but I wouldn't be shocked if there were still MORE storms after this. Maybe a few more name wasters out at sea, and another Western Caribbean hurricane. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I know this sounds crazy...but I wouldn't be shocked if there were still MORE storms after this. Maybe a few more name wasters out at sea, and another Western Caribbean hurricane. 

At this point I'm kinda expecting it...lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's a pretty decent signal for another TC development next weekend.  One ensemble member has a major going into Miami.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_fh186-186.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There's a pretty decent signal for another TC development next weekend.  One ensemble member has a major going into Miami.
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_fh186-186.thumb.gif.9747c4307dd977fa39b44e10f1a32d91.gif
"Major in Miami"

2020 GEFS long range stays the same as past years

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.