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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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52 minutes ago, senc30 said:

06Z GFS sends it OTS on this run. Makes me happy here in Southestern NC

Euro also develops  it but its OTS.

Going to be a long week of tracking  ahead

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The storm before the storm that the models were once showing hitting the coast creates a weakness which allows the next storm to go out to sea.

gfs_mslpa_atl_26.png

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It looks like there's an area of convection out ahead of 95L around 50W. Any chance this can spin up?

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In addition to the 5 active areas in the atlantic right now(Paulette, Rene, TD 19, 95L in the central Atlantic and the recently added 97L in the far eastern Atlantic) there are a few more areas to keep an eye on.

1.  A spin in the Gulf of Mexico S of New Orleans:  This area is highlighted by the NHC and it will slowly move SW in the Gulf over the next few days.

2.  An area of convection in the SW Gulf of Mexico:  not much of anything at the surface but convection has been festering E of Veracruz for at least the past day now.

3.  The Euro Ensembles are fairly consistent with a low latitude wave moving off of the Africa coast in the next couple days.

4.  Any spinups along the ITCZ, especially just east of the Leeward Islands though this is much more of a long shot.

And if that wasn't enough, the Euro Ensembles are already showing at least another wave or 2 moving off of Africa after this weekend.

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19 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Euro showing another low rider heading into the Caribbean, I assume would be Vicky. 

Most likely Wilfred or a greek name.  Vicky will probably go to 97L as it heads NW from the Cabo Verde islands

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If I may ask a rookie question...why do they skip over the letter Q? Because there aren't as many Q names? (same question for X, Y, and Z?)

Yes. You'd have to come up with three male Q names for the Atlantic, three female Q names for the Atlantic. Then another three male Q names for the Eastern Pacific, then another three female Q names for the Pacific.

I guess you could alternate like the Eastern Pacific does with Xina, Xavier, Zeke, Zelda, Yolanda and York every two years...but who knows.

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20 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Yes. You'd have to come up with three male Q names for the Atlantic, three female Q names for the Atlantic. Then another three male Q names for the Eastern Pacific, then another three female Q names for the Pacific.

I guess you could alternate like the Eastern Pacific does with Xina, Xavier, Zeke, Zelda, Yolanda and York every two years...but who knows.

I gotcha--thanks! Welp, now that we're about to head into Greek territory, may as well call the Atlantic the frat/sorority house and be done with it, lol

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14 hours ago, Reginaldo Lourenco said:

What happens if I have to remove a Greek name?

You mean a Greek named storm is so bad that it needs to be retired?

I think they would retire it and just not replace it. Like I said though, I think....

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

After Sally  it looks like as of right now the waves will stay OTS . 

Something could develop off the SE coast next week under the large high in the northeast. 

Models hinting that could become a coastal storm or subtropical storm as it moves north. 

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Something could develop off the SE coast next week under the large high in the northeast. 

Models hinting that could become a coastal storm or subtropical storm as it moves north. 

I was just about to talk about this . Models are starting to show homebrew storms. 

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On 9/12/2020 at 9:50 AM, madwx said:

In addition to the 5 active areas in the atlantic right now(Paulette, Rene, TD 19, 95L in the central Atlantic and the recently added 97L in the far eastern Atlantic) there are a few more areas to keep an eye on.

1.  A spin in the Gulf of Mexico S of New Orleans:  This area is highlighted by the NHC and it will slowly move SW in the Gulf over the next few days.

2.  An area of convection in the SW Gulf of Mexico:  not much of anything at the surface but convection has been festering E of Veracruz for at least the past day now.

3.  The Euro Ensembles are fairly consistent with a low latitude wave moving off of the Africa coast in the next couple days.

4.  Any spinups along the ITCZ, especially just east of the Leeward Islands though this is much more of a long shot.

And if that wasn't enough, the Euro Ensembles are already showing at least another wave or 2 moving off of Africa after this weekend.

An update on future risks now that we have Vicki)

1. The area of disturbed weather in the SW Gulf of Mexico has gotten more convectively active.  Euro ensembles more bullish on this system as it meanders through the southern Gulf over the next week.

2.  The latest wave to come off Africa looks fairly robust and slow development should occur as it moves across the Atlantic at a fairly low latitude.

3.  Have to watch the area off the SE coast for tail end development from the cold front that will kick Sally out.  Relative model consensus on an area of low pressure developing and this is a climatologically favored area.

4.  Another wave will be coming off Africa later this week, though this one looks to be at a higher latitude so not sure how much potential for development there will be.

5.  Very long range (post 9/21) but there is a chance for something out of the CAG off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras.

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2 hours ago, bdgwx said:

TD21 is now Tropical Storm Vicky.

Maybe this will be the year TS Omega could be a thing... 

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Just a few questions for the experts: how will Teddy interact with Rene? Will Sally eventually run into Vicky, or will Vicky take a hike? Or will Vicky try to hookup with Teddy? Is Paulette jealous of all the attention Sally is getting? Would Paulette eventually interact with Teddy at some point? I just can't keep it all straight!

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