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mappy

COVID-19 Talk

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Nevada just reported 22,000 new cases today and they only have 24,000 total. All these new cases recorded for today were probably back logged for weeks. This is why new daily increase in case numbers can’t be completely reliable and trusted 

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7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

FYI:  

 

Thanks! She also got an email yesterday saying zero job contacts required :popcorn:

So I think she just needs to log into the job contact website weekly and say “zero” and it should be ok...

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Same thing is happening in Italy.  Thousands of people died in their homes and never got counted because they didn't get tested for COVID.  The numbers will likely revised upward at a later date.  France revised theirs upward by several thousand because of all the nursing home deaths.

That makes validating the IMHE model challenging.  I assume the model is trying to predict actual counts, but we don't really know actual counts.

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8 hours ago, mappy said:

yup. i dont see states lifting anything for another month. better to be safe than sorry

So now I'm wondering what the schools are gonna do...I'm still unclear on what the gradual opening back up would look like.

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53 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So now I'm wondering what the schools are gonna do...I'm still unclear on what the gradual opening back up would look like.

What do you mean?  Schools are not reopening until fall.  

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27 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

What do you mean?  Schools are not reopening until fall.  

You'll have to pardon my ignorance on this...but I wasn't sure what the barometer was for returning to normal. And since they didn't make a decision beyond this month I thought all of that was still up in the air with the virus...

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38 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

What do you mean?  Schools are not reopening until fall.  

This is not certain, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. However, I think parents with kids should discuss that chance amongst themselves. My husband and I have.

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

This is not certain, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. However, I think parents with kids should discuss that chance amongst themselves. My husband and I have.

I'm wondering what happens if the curve is flattened but not going down by the end of this month...I mean, could things still open, I wonder?

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We’ll see what the second half of this curve looks like, but I’d be surprised if schools on the east coast opened up before the end of the academic year. Idk. I know y’all know this, but even if we do see the numbers get a lot better, we can’t open without even more scaled up testing.

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm wondering what happens if the curve is flattened but not going down by the end of this month...I mean, could things still open, I wonder?

Schools will not resume until Fall. Dr. Salmon advised today that the possibility of E learning is also on the table to start in the fall. Even if things get going by the end of the month which is extremely optimistic, there is no way schools pick up again with a month and a half left. Not worth the risk.

 

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21 minutes ago, mappy said:

This is not certain, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. However, I think parents with kids should discuss that chance amongst themselves. My husband and I have.

Sorry, I didn’t see where he lived.  They are closed for the rest of the year in Virginia.  I think chances are slim to none that Maryland returns to school but I have no particlar insight into it.  

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I don't see any chance Maryland returns to school. All it takes is one kid to start another infection chain and hit a ton of families quarantining and make us all start this whole ultra social distancing all over again.

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Was looking over this report by ABC News trying to decide if there could possibly be any validity to it and to the urgency implied. At this point call me highly skeptical especially when it comes to the urgency if we are going by the CCP's timeline. Timeline of events in Wuhan as we know it just does not support this (First confirmed case by the CCP was Dec 10 at Wuhan market). This would basically imply that our intelligence services have precognitive abilities that stretch weeks in advance. Any possible report would have more then likely come a couple of weeks later (again going by the timeline) and would probably not have conveyed the urgency that the article suggests. Now information that was coming out of China during this period of time was filtered through CCP so let's just be polite and call it very questionable. Other sources of information coming from outside of CCP control have to be questioned as well. So in other words, though I highly question the article below, which has since been denied by the NCMI, I would not completely rule it out as we can not be absolutely sure of the facts we think we might know.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273

BUT....... I did mention awhile ago that I thought there was the possibility that we saw an earlier flareup then what we are currently led to believe per the CCP. Sometime in November either in Wuhan or somewhere else.  One that the Chinese may have thought they snuffed out only to have flare back up. Have read bits and pieces over the last couple of weeks of confirmed cases starting in Mid November that would imply this earlier flareup. Researching into the above article this morning I came across this.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

Here are two relevant comments.

According to the government data seen by the Post, a 55 year-old from Hubei province could have been the first person to have contracted Covid-19 on November 17.

From that date onwards, one to five new cases were reported each day. By December 15, the total number of infections stood at 27 – the first double-digit daily rise was reported on December 17 – and by December 20, the total number of confirmed cases had reached 60.

 

Now if the above information is correct this would put a whole new light on the ABC News article above. One that would fit more into the articles narrative. One I could believe though I still might question the urgency just a little bit because I think any report would have been more of an FYI at that time. 

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46 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Was looking over this report by ABC News trying to decide if there could possibly be any validity to it and to the urgency implied. At this point call me highly skeptical especially when it comes to the urgency if we are going by the CCP's timeline. Timeline of events in Wuhan as we know it just does not support this (First confirmed case by the CCP was Dec 10 at Wuhan market). This would basically imply that our intelligence services have precognitive abilities that stretch weeks in advance. Any possible report would have more then likely come a couple of weeks later (again going by the timeline) and would probably not have conveyed the urgency that the article suggests. Now information that was coming out of China during this period of time was filtered through CCP so let's just be polite and call it very questionable. Other sources of information coming from outside of CCP control have to be questioned as well. So in other words, though I highly question the article below, which has since been denied by the NCMI, I would not completely rule it out as we can not be absolutely sure of the facts we think we might know.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273

BUT....... I did mention awhile ago that I thought there was the possibility that we saw an earlier flareup then what we are currently led to believe per the CCP. Sometime in November either in Wuhan or somewhere else.  One that the Chinese may have thought they snuffed out only to have flare back up. Have read bits and pieces over the last couple of weeks of confirmed cases starting in Mid November that would imply this earlier flareup. Researching into the above article this morning I came across this.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

Here are two relevant comments.

According to the government data seen by the Post, a 55 year-old from Hubei province could have been the first person to have contracted Covid-19 on November 17.

From that date onwards, one to five new cases were reported each day. By December 15, the total number of infections stood at 27 – the first double-digit daily rise was reported on December 17 – and by December 20, the total number of confirmed cases had reached 60.

 

Now if the above information is correct this would put a whole new light on the ABC News article above. One that would fit more into the articles narrative. One I could believe though I still might question the urgency just a little bit because I think any report would have been more of an FYI at that time. 

Several cases in late Nov very early Dec of severe respiratory infections, bronchitis, and pneumonia up in my area. I was one of the cases. I never (to my knowledge) had any lung or respiratory illness before. Maybe as a child? But my sicknesses are either "stomach bug" (barfing and the runs with low-grade fever maybe once every other year) OR I get a scratchy throat, supplement with zinc....get a mild sore throat and "head cold" symptoms then gone in 2 days. What I and many of us had a few months ago was different than anything I've had in the past. Brief scratchy throat then no congestion or head cold but rather settled quickly into the chest with a persistent and severe unproductive dry cough, shortness of breath which I couldnt breathe due to the chronic cough and fever of 101-102.5 which doctors and swabs had no diagnosis for us other than being verbally told "it isnt pneumonia it appears to be a different strain of flu". Prescribed bed rest, pedialyte, and tamiflu. Lasted about 4 days before slowly subsiding.

Now I'm not implying this was covid19. One would assume if a bunch of us had it and whatever it was spread around efficiently that many folks would have succumbed to infections and pneumonia and we would have heard of hospitals being overwhelmed. I just find it a weird coincidence that people I spoke to that had this back around thanksgiving dont normally get respiratory sickness but did this time for whatever reason. I did alot of poking around online and best data I could find is there was a mutation/variant of the h1n1pdm09 strain noted in some cases. 

Either way, makes me cringe thinking about how viral mutations can happen under scientist noses so quickly and efficiently without detection until spread around the population.

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Now this article is one of the reasons I had issues with Trumps ban on just China and their international travelers. Felt strongly that he should have banned at the same time, if not all international flights, then at least flights from Europe. It was quite obvious to me at that point the virus had already spread beyond China into other countries especially Europe. 

https://www.foxnews.com/science/new-york-area-coronavirus-outbreak-originated-primarily-in-europe-not-china-report

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Apologies if this was discussed or even disputed but the model everyone is using saying the predictions of total deaths keep going down some of the metrics used are that it assumes a Wuhan style lockdown until the end of May to achieve those numbers. Call me skeptical but I'm not sure that's what is happening in the USA 

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Also saw that less than 0.5% of Virginians have been tested. Really not sure how we contain this beast when we truly don't know how many have it and where. I know there is some sort of sick love affair with the death total but honestly if we don't stop the spread the death total will just continue to accumulate and I don't give a rats ass how fast that happens it will just continue. If we are ok with that then I guess open this bad boy up May 1st...that will make Phineas happy :hurrbear:

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Several cases in late Nov very early Dec of severe respiratory infections, bronchitis, and pneumonia up in my area. I was one of the cases. I never (to my knowledge) had any lung or respiratory illness before. Maybe as a child? But my sicknesses are either "stomach bug" (barfing and the runs with low-grade fever maybe once every other year) OR I get a scratchy throat, supplement with zinc....get a mild sore throat and "head cold" symptoms then gone in 2 days. What I and many of us had a few months ago was different than anything I've had in the past. Brief scratchy throat then no congestion or head cold but rather settled quickly into the chest with a persistent and severe unproductive dry cough, shortness of breath which I couldnt breathe due to the chronic cough and fever of 101-102.5 which doctors and swabs had no diagnosis for us other than being verbally told "it isnt pneumonia it appears to be a different strain of flu". Prescribed bed rest, pedialyte, and tamiflu. Lasted about 4 days before slowly subsiding.

Now I'm not implying this was covid19. One would assume if a bunch of us had it and whatever it was spread around efficiently that many folks would have succumbed to infections and pneumonia and we would have heard of hospitals being overwhelmed. I just find it a weird coincidence that people I spoke to that had this back around thanksgiving dont normally get respiratory sickness but did this time for whatever reason. I did alot of poking around online and best data I could find is there was a mutation/variant of the h1n1pdm09 strain noted in some cases. 

Either way, makes me cringe thinking about how viral mutations can happen under scientist noses so quickly and efficiently without detection until spread around the population.

Not that you can dismiss the possibility but your symptoms pretty much describe any flu. It was probably nothing more then one of the strains that pop up periodically each year. Same with me when I came back from my casino trip up in Wilkes-barre. Developed a cold a day or two after coming back that lingered for weeks. Cough, congestion etc... Felt somewhat sick but could work through it. Kept wondering if it could be covid considering that NY and NJ are only a couple of hours away travel time. But when I think through it I think the odds were slim.

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10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Apologies if this was discussed or even disputed but the model everyone is using saying the predictions of total deaths keep going down some of the metrics used are that it assumes a Wuhan style lockdown until the end of May to achieve those numbers. Call me skeptical but I'm not sure that's what is happening in the USA 

Wuhan style lock-down? To the best of my knowledge they are only factoring in Social Distancing. That said, I have and continue to question their 3% infection rate after this wave. Just doesn't make sense with everything I have seen. Think that is under done, possibly by a good bit. And that could have significant impacts to any second wave as it would take possible hosts, especially in the cities where they will see much higher rates then the national avg.,  out of the equation.

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Is there any truth to the USA running low on test kits past several days? Seeing articles stating we used a few millions tests up rather quickly and have hit a threshold where they are just not able to keep up with the demand currently. Could this explain the leveling off of new cases we are seeing? Or is there validity to the curve beginning to flatten? I know in NY they are saying more people leaving hospitals as recoveries than are entering so those numbers could potentially be documented as factual yes?

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5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

Wuhan style lock-down? To the best of my knowledge they are only factoring in Social Distancing. That said, I have and continue to question their 3% infection rate after this wave. Just doesn't make sense with everything I have seen. Think that is under done, possibly by a good bit. And that could have significant impacts to any second wave as it would take possible hosts, especially in the cities where they will see much higher rates then the national avg.,  out of the equation.

Interesting statement from Dr. Birx that there are a million tests at Abbott labs that are in backlog because the testing machines are down. I want the country back open sooner rather than later but dang let's know how many and where and get this thing totally contained first and then come back strong!

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Interesting statement from Dr. Birx that there are a million tests at Abbott labs that are in backlog because the testing machines are down. I want the country back open sooner rather than later but dang let's know how many and where and get this thing totally contained first and then come back strong!

First I had heard that but am not surprised. This is one of the reasons I brought forward that the WHO test, that some were going on about, as not being a viable solution .Pretty much shows the issues we would have dealt with when we only have a few facilities that can do the lab testing. The tests get backed up quickly when these labs have to cultivate the virus long enough to get an accurate reading (2 days I believe?). They get backed up so quickly that they become for the most part useless as the virus quickly out races the speed that we can get the results back. Right now they have several tests that will give results within a manner of hours, if not minutes, and it is just a matter of confirming the accuracy and then getting them mass produced.

I also have to wonder if the lack of getting test results back is also handicapping the model on Infection rates?

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10 hours ago, snowfan said:

Correct....no chance schools are reopening this academic year. It's just not official yet.

I've seen Hogan's communication people mention it more frequently the last two days, about them looking into schools reopening in the fall. 

we are planning that mini-map will not be going back to school this academic year. we just haven't said it out loud to her. 

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27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is there any truth to the USA running low on test kits past several days? Seeing articles stating we used a few millions tests up rather quickly and have hit a threshold where they are just not able to keep up with the demand currently. Could this explain the leveling off of new cases we are seeing? Or is there validity to the curve beginning to flatten? I know in NY they are saying more people leaving hospitals as recoveries than are entering so those numbers could potentially be documented as factual yes?

Almost every lab is backed up and many are low on the reagents necessary to run the tests.  Our output is a trickle nationally of what's coming in, especially in the DC to Providence corridor.

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