COVID-19 Talk

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Agree...for the most part.  But there will come a point when the balance will tip and we will have to move on.

Yes of course, at some point when the risk is lower.  But moving on will probably not mean just rushing back into life as it used to be, as @mappy and @Eskimo Joe have pointed out.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

But the mortality rate is a % of the infected population.  Changing the population changes the # of deaths, but doesn't necessarily change the mortality rate.

We have a lot more control over the spread of this disease, and whether we get infected, than we do over the safety of a city bus, train, aircraft, or even an uber....among other things. 

but by limiting its spread, you still lower how many will die from it. its all connected.

I get your POV, and i agree its all personal choice. I just don't think comparing the risk of getting on a bus to a highly contagious virus is the right comparison to make. 

[H2O]

11 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The fact is that these are risks.  As is travel to work, to vacation, to see loved ones.  Cops, policemen, construction workers, etc face physical risks in their jobs every single day.  Surgeries.  Alcoholic beverages and junk foods.  The list goes on and on.  Each poses risk to us....every day.  Yet, we willingly continue to face these risks.  

A lot of what you lost are things we choose and can eliminate. We can’t choose not to get infected. Again the issue is that there isn’t a system in place that can handle a massive number of people all getting sick at once. That is what we are talking about. The risks you bring up are staggered because they all vary as far as people getting hurt or sick. We aren’t all firefighters. We aren’t all in construction. But we all can get this virus and in a very short time. It affects everyone. 

[Vice-Regent]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We live in the bizarro timeline:

The economic decoupling is real. Many have been saying for years that the real economy has decoupled from the derivatives market.

[Inverted_Trough]

car accidents aren't contagious.  It's like comparing apples to bowling balls.

[EastCoast NPZ]

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

but by limiting its spread, you still lower how many will die from it. its all connected.

I get your POV, and i agree its all personal choice. I just don't think comparing the risk of getting on a bus to a highly contagious virus is the right comparison to make. 

Well, it's not a 1 to 1 comparison.  Just trying to point out that there is a risk calculus that must happen with COVID-19, because the IR is never gonna be zero.  And just because people realize this doesn't mean they want granny to die.

[mappy]

Just now, H2O said:

A lot of what you lost are things we choose and can eliminate. We can’t choose not to get infected. Again the issue is that there isn’t a system in place that can handle a massive number of people all getting sick at once. That is what we are talking about. The risks you bring up are staggered because they all vary as far as people getting hurt or sick. We aren’t all firefighters. We aren’t all in construction. But we all can get this virus and in a very short time. It affects everyone. 

good point - one i think people forget. social distancing and slowing spread was to help the strain on the healthcare system. everyone getting sick at once would be a nightmare for hospitals. i mean if you think NYC has been bad the last two weeks with social distancing measures in place, can you imagine how bad it would be WITHOUT them in place? OMG it would be terrible. 

[mappy]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Well, it's not a 1 to 1 comparison.  Just trying to point out that there is a risk calculus that must happen with COVID-19, because the IR is never gonna be zero.  And people that realize this don't want granny to die.

I don't want anyone to die, regardless of granny or grandpa. what a weird thing to say. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said:

The economic decoupling is real. Many have been saying for years that the real economy has decoupled from the derivatives market.

Wall Street is getting free money for the foreseeable future and that's all the DOW et al care about. If one thing has been made clear post-2008, it's that conditions on Wall Street are not indicative of conditions on Main Street.

[H2O]

8 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

But the mortality rate is a % of the infected population.  Changing the population changes the # of deaths, but doesn't necessarily change the mortality rate.

We have a lot more control over the spread of this disease, and whether we get infected, than we do over the safety of a city bus, train, aircraft, or even an uber....among other things. 

That’s just crap. There is more control to keep a bus, train, car, plane safe than this virus. Seriously?  This is why there are laws on how things are built. Things are safer now than they were and it’s constantly improving. i have to take my car in every year to make sure it’s safe. A city bus has a regular maintenance schedule. How many people die from a plane crashing in the US each year?

 

come on. You just can’t compare that stuff and this

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, H2O said:

A lot of what you lost are things we choose and can eliminate. We can’t choose not to get infected. Again the issue is that there isn’t a system in place that can handle a massive number of people all getting sick at once. That is what we are talking about. The risks you bring up are staggered because they all vary as far as people getting hurt or sick. We aren’t all firefighters. We aren’t all in construction. But we all can get this virus and in a very short time. It affects everyone. 

Yes! All these comparisons with other forms of risk aren’t analogous at all. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

A lot of what you lost are things we choose and can eliminate. We can’t choose not to get infected. Again the issue is that there isn’t a system in place that can handle a massive number of people all getting sick at once. That is what we are talking about. The risks you bring up are staggered because they all vary as far as people getting hurt or sick. We aren’t all firefighters. We aren’t all in construction. But we all can get this virus and in a very short time. It affects everyone. 

We can limit our risk of infection and still continue to live.  

The mass sickness risk to healthcare system is real and not being argued at this time.

[nw baltimore wx]

13 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

car accidents aren't contagious.  It's like comparing apples to bowling balls.

What color is the bowling ball?

[H2O]

6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

We can limit our risk of infection and still continue to live.  

The mass sickness risk to healthcare system is real and not being argued at this time.

If you keep putting people back out there that can spread this virus then you eliminate the ability for individuals to limit the risk. A person can only prepare for so much outside the normal abundance of caution they might be able to do. 
 

[H2O]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

What color is the bowling ball?

Clear with a rose in it

[EastCoast NPZ]

6 minutes ago, H2O said:

That’s just crap. There is more control to keep a bus, train, car, plane safe than this virus. Seriously?  This is why there are laws on how things are built. Things are safer now than they were and it’s constantly improving. i have to take my car in every year to make sure it’s safe. A city bus has a regular maintenance schedule. How many people die from a plane crashing in the US each year?

 

come on. You just can’t compare that stuff and this

38000 annual deaths by auto accidents in US.

523 air craft deaths in 2018 (cant find numbers from 2019).

How much control do you have over the operation, production, and maintenance of said buses, trains, cars, or planes?

Yet, you ride in them, despite knowing there is a non-zero chance it results in your death.

[H2O]

Or what if the bowling ball has an apple in it?

[aldie 22]

23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We live in the bizarro timeline:

If this doesn't prove that the Dow and the everyday worker are not connected. 

[mappy]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

38000 annual deaths by auto accidents in US.

523 air craft deaths in 2018 (cant find numbers from 2019).

How much control do you have over the operation, production, and maintenance of said buses, trains, cars, or planes?

Yet, you ride in them, despite knowing there is a non-zero chance it results in your death.

look, if you are so impatient to go out and get on with life, then go do it. dont take precautions, go back to work, go shopping (depending on whats open of course). if you want to risk your health, and anyone else you come in contact with, by all means have it.

stay away from Parkton though. 

the rest of us will wait and see how it goes and not risk our lives because of the EcOnOmY

[ErinInTheSky]

54 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually I believe the CDC has told doctors and health professionals to label questionable deaths as coronavirus related if they have doubts as to whether death could have occurred due to the virus itself or an underlining terminal health issue. Now  how that would play out concerning deaths outside of the hospital I have no idea. But I could see where that could possibly increase coronavirus deaths vs. decrease them. But again, really don't have the knowledge to argue one way or the other.

They haven't started yet but they are about to do so.

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If I’m reading this specific post right, you’re not saying we need to sacrifice people for the sake of the economy like some ridiculous people out there, what you’re saying is that at some point we as a society will need to determine what amount of risk is acceptable to reopen things because we we won’t be able to completely stop transmission. 

That’s where the testing, isolation, and contact tracing is so important. 

Correct.  We cannot stop the economy forever and force everyone into starvation.  At some point, we will calculate the risk is worth the reward and move on.

[H2O]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

38000 annual deaths by auto accidents in US.

523 air craft deaths in 2018 (cant find numbers from 2019).

How much control do you have over the operation, production, and maintenance of said buses, trains, cars, or planes?

Yet, you ride in them, despite knowing there is a non-zero chance it results in your death.

Sigh. Vending machines cause death too. Let’s use everything 

 

I’m not saying shutter everything for months or years but you can only hope to have a return to normal by doing the controls experts recommend. They aren’t motivated to destroy our country. But we have to get the spread of this virus under control before we can even think about doing things like we were just 3 months ago

[nw baltimore wx]

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Or what if the bowling ball has an apple in it?

I was thinking an apple bowing ball.

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

look, if you are so impatient to go out and get on with life, then go do it. dont take precautions, go back to work, go shopping (depending on whats open of course). if you want to risk your health, and anyone else you come in contact with, by all means have it.

stay away from Parkton though. 

the rest of us will wait and see how it goes and not risk our lives because of the EcOnOmY

He can stay away from my hood too. Let him go party in FL and take cruises too

[H2O]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I was thinking an apple bowing ball.

The break is too erratic to hit the pocket every throw

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

look, if you are so impatient to go out and get on with life, then go do it. dont take precautions, go back to work, go shopping (depending on whats open of course). if you want to risk your health, and anyone else you come in contact with, by all means have it.

stay away from Parkton though. 

the rest of us will wait and see how it goes and not risk our lives because of the EcOnOmY

That is not my argument, and you know it.

I work from home now from the most part.  But, I go into the office when I must and continue to grocery shop with sensible precautions.

[ErinInTheSky]

30 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

But the rapid spread of the virus impacts our ability to work, socialize and enjoy life.  The economy was tanking before the so-called shutdown.  Let's say you don't shut anything down.  You'll get tens of millions of people infected, which will knock out your labor force. (supply shock).  Overwhelmed hospitals and bodies lying in the hospital corridors will make most people fearful of going out (demand shock)  So the economy tanks.  It's not as sharp of a tanking compared to an abrupt shutdown, but I wouldn't argue it's a longer, sustained destruction of our economy.

Economy will never go back to normal until you contain the virus and have therapeutics (and eventually a vaccine) which give people the confidence that, even if they'll get it, they'll recover.

The shutdowns weren't inevitable.  Shutdowns are part of a mitigation phase.  Ideally you never get to mitigation, but since we massively failed at containment, we basically went straight to mitigation.

This is what people keep not understanding. We don't control the economy, the virus does. They act like "opening up the economy" is as simple as flipping a light switch and that everyone will be fine with going about their day engaging in economic activity.

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

Sigh. Vending machines cause death too. Let’s use everything 

 

I’m not saying shutter everything for months or years but you can only hope to have a return to normal by doing the controls experts recommend. They aren’t motivated to destroy our country. But we have to get the spread of this virus under control before we can even think about doing things like we were just 3 months ago

Agree with you.

But, as I said initially, there is a calculus.

[CAPE]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

The real victim here is his 401k

I think you have just been added to the Phin shiithead list.

[ErinInTheSky]

23 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Well, it's not a 1 to 1 comparison.  Just trying to point out that there is a risk calculus that must happen with COVID-19, because the IR is never gonna be zero.  And just because people realize this doesn't mean they want granny to die.

Granny dying is not the concern. The concern is having absolutely no medical system in the country.

 

The loss of a medical system would be catastrophic. It's one of the most absolute basic things society needs to function.