• Member Statistics

    15,883
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WeatherArbordoctor
    Newest Member
    WeatherArbordoctor
    Joined
Typhoon Tip

Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

Recommended Posts

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its going to get colder 

Enjoy 

Aside from wed-Fri it can’t get a lot worse. We’ve only had a few nice days. Just give me W-NW flow with some partial sun and it’s a win. Even if it’s 45-50 and a bit below freezing at night. cP this time of year isn’t too bad. mP is horrible. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Aside from wed-Fri it can’t get a lot worse. We’ve only had a few nice days. Just give me W-NW flow with some partial sun and it’s a win. Even if it’s 45-50 and a bit below freezing at night. cP this time of year isn’t too bad. mP is horrible. 

I think there’s more than hope for us on Wed. 50’s and sun is well within reach with the significant block over New Brunswick. Another “best weather in Maine” type day...

The price to pay for it will be Thurs. night into early Friday...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Effing horrible. I know rt 2 corridor on north wasn't as bad, but the period from mid December on was as bad as it gets. I would take 15-16 a thousand times over.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, CoastalWx said:

Effing horrible. I know rt 2 corridor on north wasn't as bad, but the period from mid December on was as bad as it gets. I would take 15-16 a thousand times over.

I blame the lack of snow on our current crisis,  just kidding but what a disastah 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I blame the lack of snow on our current crisis,  just kidding but what a disastah 

Yeah, just speaking for my hood. First half of December was fun, but another year where early snow and cold failed to foreshadow the rest of the season. Disappointing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Effing horrible. I know rt 2 corridor on north wasn't as bad, but the period from mid December on was as bad as it gets. I would take 15-16 a thousand times over.

mmm I live along Rt 2 (essentially) and it ranks probably #4 on the all-time list of having had the region's winter enthusiast head stuffed in Satan's ass

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Maine is where the cold is deeper, omega is greater. Fully expect a 8 to 12 type snowstorm from interior Western Maine to the coast of Eastern Maine

In the 8 Aprils since the 4/1/11 dump, our area has had that kind of forecast 4-5 times without any reaching even 4", so seeing would be believing.
 

Ice is out early up here on two of the lakes I fish, Guess I’ll have to wait to see what happens late week, Was planning to go this weekend.

Long Pond in Belgrade is about 2/3 clear with only the N and S coves remaining, and the ice there is all black and probably won't survive today's sunny 50s.  The near-2" RA followed by Sat-Sun 50s took a 10" pack down to "trace" by last evening, ending the run of 1"+ at 146 days, not bad for a warm winter with 20% BN snowfall.  Getting 20+ days in November helps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I think there’s more than hope for us on Wed. 50’s and sun is well within reach with the significant block over New Brunswick. Another “best weather in Maine” type day...

The price to pay for it will be Thurs. night into early Friday...

Agree...as long as we keep the QPF south.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The operational versions of every model are holding out on cold to the bitter end. 

The GFS is particularly atrociously either negligent of the seasonal forcing of oh ... a trillion-trillion-trillion-trillion-trillion ton perpetual fusion bomb eye-balling the hemisphere, or, it's going to succeed in a once in a 500 year cold pattern on top of a back-ground uncompensated GW signal...   

Hmm, which way should we go - I'm inclined to think that the it's just negligently constructed around solar fluxing.  It does this at this time of year, every f year... It starts out D2 through 5 with some semblance of in situ pattern awareness ( though mishandles it for other reasons..), then, slides right back into January. Go back the last 100 cycles of this model and look at any D10 ... it's more like a mild pattern in January at best, otherwise, just absurd.    

The GGEM and Euro, however, are also cold relative to the CPC teleconnectors, too.   That said, obviously these models don't give a ratz azz what the GEFs curves do; they are not part of the GFS' family genetics.  I don't know what the Euro or GGEM fields look like based upon their own ensembles ... but the EPS general appeals tend to rarely stray very far from the operational at the scales of pattern management, so.. they probably kill summer and never snow too 

I think the operational GFS is useless most late Marches into first halves of Aprils, more so than the usual head-scratching as to why that useless p.o.s. shit model is given its portion of carbon footprint to run at any time of the year beyond D4.   Going back several years, I distinctly recall it over and over and over, flooding lower Canada with mid January thickness in it's D7 to 12 ranges as a plaguing model bias during most springs. 

  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, tamarack said:

In the 8 Aprils since the 4/1/11 dump, our area has had that kind of forecast 4-5 times without any reaching even 4", so seeing would be believing.
 

Ice is out early up here on two of the lakes I fish, Guess I’ll have to wait to see what happens late week, Was planning to go this weekend.

Long Pond in Belgrade is about 2/3 clear with only the N and S coves remaining, and the ice there is all black and probably won't survive today's sunny 50s.  The near-2" RA followed by Sat-Sun 50s took a 10" pack down to "trace" by last evening, ending the run of 1"+ at 146 days, not bad for a warm winter with 20% BN snowfall.  Getting 20+ days in November helps.

Will be interested especially for you

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, snowman19 said:

Why would you be cheering on cold right now? 

I'm a cold weenie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Blizzard warnings?

Really hadn't paid much attention to any of this, Guess i will have to start.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Why would you be cheering on cold right now? 

Do you follow Ant around like a puppy dog?

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, dryslot said:

Really hadn't paid much attention to any of this, Guess i will have to start paying attention.

Paste, really bombs out 960 s near  Bar Harbor 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Suppose that's achievable, weird way to do a winter. 

Yes it is weird when you look back just based on the numbers, I had said all along to many that were all joyus about the lack of winter earlier to be careful what you wish for, Many a season we either had a front end one or back end one and we did not get the front end.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 - - NAO, MJO phase 8, and a significant  disturbance all on April fricken 10th. We struggled to have 1 of those three at any given time throughout the winter season, but with mid April here, the weather gods will give us all 3 simultaneously. 
 

:gun_bandana::snowman:

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jesus what a shitty year snow and otherwise 

 

Holy crap.  I thought you were posting a historical storm total... like some hand drawn snowstorm from 1898.

Not the entire seasonal total.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm I live along Rt 2 (essentially) and it ranks probably #4 on the all-time list of having had the region's winter enthusiast head stuffed in Satan's ass

What was your seasonal total relative to normal?

I know RT 2 further west wasn't all that far from normal.... I seem to remember Hippy being one storm from normal but he's way west.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Holy crap.  I thought you were posting a historical storm total... like some hand drawn snowstorm from 1898.

Not the entire seasonal total.

Dead sea scroll from the winter of 19/20

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Crystal clear day finally with full sunshine.

Sort of has an October air mass feel though.... trying to warm up but really dry.

Currently 48/15 with 24% RH. 

That 15F dew point and a NW breeze is doing its best to try and not make it feel as warm outside as the sun would let you believe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm I live along Rt 2 (essentially) and it ranks probably #4 on the all-time list of having had the region's winter enthusiast head stuffed in Satan's ass

Further west was better. December (1st half of it really) was great.  After that it blew

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.