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This forecasting exercise will come up, so I figured I would post it embedded as this guy works through the inbuilt assumptions. Click thru show thread, 20 odd tweets in chain, no 1-page collated version because thread aggregator was janky for me.

 

Must read for model lovers, cause for cautious optimism and serious concern

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File this under "hope I don't regret this"

 

Late Friday afternoon, the city of Hammond announced that its first employee had tested positive for COVID-19. A Hammond police officer has tested positive for the virus, Mayor Tom McDermott Jr. said, while two others who were in close contact with that officer were sent home.

The two other individuals won’t be ordered into quarantine, he said, because the city can’t afford to lose first responders at a time like this.

"Just because you've been exposed but are not showing symptoms, I can't have them quarantined for two weeks," McDermott said. 

https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/post-tribune/ct-ptb-indiana-coronavirus-update-0329-20200328-ke5pcj7qlfgqpemdxnagr6yehe-story.html

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More unfortunate news coming out of Europe today. 889 new deaths in Italy, 674 in Spain, 260 in UK and 319 in France. One can only hope this starts slowing down soon but it doesn't seem like it. I don't think summer will have any profound impacts on this virus. 

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2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

465 new cases, 13 more deaths. 3491/47 totals now. 

Numbers are underdone of course but now have almost 20 states reporting >1000 cases.  I am guessing the actual number is 40 something.

Screenshot_20200328-173449.thumb.png.8d7c47e196906ec58fdc2272665394a1.png

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Gonna be near/over 500 US deaths today.  Really should be putting to rest any questions about whether restrictive measures were necessary.  

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Gonna be near/over 500 US deaths today.  Really should be putting to rest any questions about whether restrictive measures were necessary.  

Blind if we didn't see it coming 16 yrs before 2016. Its mind boggling how how Bat Shizt Crazy blind +50% of America has been trained.  Sad state we're in.  Hug your loved ones all. Be Best.

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3,026 cases and 34 deaths total in IL now.

3,491 cases and 47 deaths as of Saturday.


.

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Gonna be near/over 500 US deaths today.  Really should be putting to rest any questions about whether restrictive measures were necessary.  

Should be a million infected "officially" worldwide by Tuesday or Wednesday.  Will probably see a 1 day of 1k deaths in the US by next week, far from over.  CDC reports 23k deaths from flu this flu season which runs from October to May the peak being February then dropping off drastically moving into March.  Confirmed Covid19 infection rates will climb as testing gets better so not a good analogue.  Deaths confirmed from the Covid19 infection are a better analogue sadly. With roughly 2200 deaths from this virus so far we've hit 10% of the flu deaths over this 8 month flu season in roughly 3 weeks with the curve continuing to rise.  Even comparing to the 2017-2018 analogous flu season where death rates were 2- 3 times the average, this virus is winning at the moment.  

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23 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

First death in my county happened today 

Same here.  My county also has the 2nd highest number of verified cases in Indiana now, not surprising since it is the 2nd most populated but it did start off slow.  I wonder how much is under the surface here because Marion county (home of Indianapolis) has 2x the population but over 8x the number of confirmed cases.  

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Same here.  My county also has the 2nd highest number of verified cases in Indiana now, not surprising since it is the 2nd most populated but it did start off slow.  I wonder how much is under the surface here because Marion county (home of Indianapolis) has 2x the population but over 8x the number of confirmed cases.  

Like you posted about Iceland.  If we don't have enough kits to test everyone the next best thing is random sampling.  Doesn't take a lot to get a grip on an overall average.  It's math, statistics, it works.  When you posted that I was like geez, simple genius lol. 

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10 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Like you posted about Iceland.  If we don't have enough kits to test everyone the next best thing is random sampling.  Doesn't take a lot to get a grip on an overall average.  It's math, statistics, it works.  When you posted that I was like geez, simple genius lol. 

Much quicker testing is supposedly on the way (results in minutes), but availability of those will be a question.

Forgot to mention in my last post that there is a possible outbreak in the county jail here... but guess what, they haven't been able to get the tests yet.  :axe:  

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16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

One of the Illinois deaths is an infant.

This is extremely sad, but a story that needs to be followed up on due to it's obvious ramifications:

“There has never before been a death associated with COVID-19 in an infant.  A full investigation is underway to determine the cause of death,” said IDPH Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike.  “We must do everything we can to prevent the spread of this deadly virus. If not to protect ourselves, but to protect those around us.

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On 3/27/2020 at 5:34 PM, Stebo said:

WTF is this nonsense. Everyone is getting it, doesn't matter age race sex.

I'm not prejudice and wasn't talking about who is or isn't getting it. Got it now? My idea may or may not hold any merit but I am trying to figure out why this has shown up so heavily in Metro Detroit? Iran is near the top of the countries with the highest number of infected. Just a pure conjecture on my part that perhaps Peeps travelling from that region of the world unknowingly carried it to SEMI? Could also just be the amount of automotive industry related travelers to/from China as well. Just for discussionary purposes only. Maybe you or others have some better Intel?

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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

I'm not prejudice and wasn't talking about who is or isn't getting it. Got it now? My idea may or may not hold any merit but I am trying to figure out why this has shown up so heavily in Metro Detroit? Iran is near the top of the countries with the highest number of infected. Just a pure conjecture on my part that perhaps Peeps travelling from that region of the world unknowingly carried it to SEMI? Could also just be the amount of automotive industry related travelers to/from China as well. Just for discussionary purposes only. Maybe you or others have some better Intel?

No. Lack of grocery stores and the frequency of trips to get supplies is my guess.

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State of Indiana has started releasing the age breakdown of cases.  Updated daily.  

Based on what I've read, the testing has been biased away from younger people/mild symptoms and more toward those with worse symptoms, especially with pre-existing conditions.  So with that in mind, it is noteworthy to see this distribution.  I think the word is slowly getting around that this isn't just an older person's disease and that younger people can get into real trouble too, even though fatality rates are much lower in people under 50 or 60.

covid-demographics-03292020.png.56731c3433accc7bf262be9ddc65dca0.png

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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Oof.  Over 1100 new confirmed cases in IL since yesterday.  

18 additional deaths. Plus Joe Diffie died, reportedly from COVID 19 as well. Not a huge celebrity, but big in late 90’s country music for sure 

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4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

I'm not prejudice and wasn't talking about who is or isn't getting it. Got it now? My idea may or may not hold any merit but I am trying to figure out why this has shown up so heavily in Metro Detroit? Iran is near the top of the countries with the highest number of infected. Just a pure conjecture on my part that perhaps Peeps travelling from that region of the world unknowingly carried it to SEMI? Could also just be the amount of automotive industry related travelers to/from China as well. Just for discussionary purposes only. Maybe you or others have some better Intel?

I get what you're saying but I think your logic is skewed.  Larger metro's are going to have higher infection rates simply due to the fact people are in closer proximity to each other, that's all it is.  I live just outside of a town of 7-8k people and 90 % of them live in houses, rented or owned which puts them a good distance from their neighbors.  The next closest towns are 10 miles away roughly the same size and the same type of neighborhoods.  Have to drive 25 miles to get to a decent sized city of 25k or more.  The bigger the city you tend to have more people living in say apartment complexes with people living right next each other, more people needing to use laundromats, cars parked right next to each other, hotels for travellers, companies that do business locally, nationally and globally amongst a myriad of other things..  Exponentially more chances of close contact because of the shear numbers of people puts everyone at a greater risk of infection.  A little town of about 1k 8 miles away from me had my counties second death last week.  The other one was in Anderson 25 miles away a city of 55k, but it also has 90 % of the infection rate of this county.  Anderson has a fairly large oriental community by Indiana standards.  Why is Anderson the hardest hit city in my county? Because they went to visit relatives over seas or vise versa? 

  It's easy to get side tracked looking for answers during this time but it's important now more than ever that people be careful about how their comments would be perceived especially relating to divisive subjects.  I'm sure you weren't trying to sound racist and were just trying to figure out a logical answer to your question.  But you instantly saw how your logic was perceived as something else.  We're all a bit on edge right now and it's going to get edgier.  We all just need to give a little extra thought to how our comments and actions will be perceived by others.  Not lecturing but you asked.  Everyone just needs to slow down a tick, not just on social boards like this but in general, and think a little longer before speaking.   :thumbsup:

  Except for Alek, we all know he's an a... well :facepalm:lol

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

So even worse than thought.  But it is a good piece of info to have so as to not be alarmed when looking at the trends going forward.  

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

These next few weeks will probably be the worst. Literally not leaving the house

I'm gradually coming of the same mind.  Even shopping for groceries...it's inadvertent, but people get way too close.

Online shopping for everything.

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A friend in Charleston told me at some stores they have tape spaced 6 feet apart at the checkouts and plexiglass "sneeze" guards between the cashier and the customer.  Maybe Nwohweather can confirm since he deserted us :P

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1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said:

^including deliveries of legal weed.  Coronavirus can do what it wants, I'm floating, brothers. :tomato:

Can you get me a Canadian ID?  :thumbsup:

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