• Member Statistics

    16,113
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    dhubbard
    Newest Member
    dhubbard
    Joined
MAG5035

Central PA - Spring 2020

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

If you loop it, looks like low clouds moving East to West so I may be on borrowed time on my side 

I am getting maximum burn off over here but hopefully you get some push back over there.  We are about 6 or 7 degrees ahead of you on the climb up though.  Headed to Mercersburg for the day.  Wish the flea market would reopen.  Need to get some treasure hunting in at some point.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Already 63 here with partial sun.

Ended up making it to 68 here.  Beautiful day.  Blessed to get it and sorry for those that may not have. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is how it should be this time of year. Beautiful out except for some cloudiness. This cold april and really warm winter made it feel like it's been March for 6 months straight now.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

This is how it should be this time of year. Beautiful out except for some cloudiness. This cold april and really warm winter made it feel like it's been March for 6 months straight now.

We put out a picnic blanket and slept a bit outside and I am glad there were some clouds.  It was a tad too warm when the sun was bearing down on us for 10-15 min straight. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

This is how it should be this time of year. Beautiful out except for some cloudiness. This cold april and really warm winter made it feel like it's been March for 6 months straight now.

You are so right. It has felt like March for 6 months...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Dreary for sure but very little rain has/is falling around here.

Same here.  About 1/5" so far.  Sun is out now though I suspect it will go back in shortly.  Chilly 51 degrees 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, canderson said:

Forecast was for 1-1.5” of rain. I have .2” today.

Yea, seemed the main shield set up and covered the top 2/3 of the state.  Other than occasional drizzle it was a dry day here until about 30 min ago.   You are about to more than double your totals now though. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, canderson said:

Forecast was for 1-1.5” of rain. I have like .2” today so far

Last night's forecast for me was half to three quarters today and then a tenth to a quarter tonight.  If we say that 6:00 pm (it's 5:51 now) is the end of the today segment, then my 0.66" total so far is right on schedule.  Plus, looking at the radar right now it looks like the steadiest period of rain has just begun.  I could easily see me collecting another 0.3" by tomorrow morning.  So my zone/grid forecast appears to be right on the money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've been up for 10 hours and have seen about 30 minutes of actual precipitation so far today. Roads, driveways and sidewalks are dry here as I wait for the slug of moisture to my west to arrive here. 

The rain is starting to pick up here in Marysville. The radar looks juiced to our south & west and is moving slowly.

I would have loved to see this current radar a month or two ago...

Wellsboro & Binghamton reported snow at the last hour with temps in the low 30’s, which is very remarkable for today’s date!

Maybe @pasnownut will get some snow at his northern tier place ?!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sadly, this event will most likely be the last time that I get to post snow maps for CTP until this Fall...

The 18z NAM brings snow to a northern & Western areas of CTP this evening. Maybe our friend in Clearfield will get in on some snow tonight?

Ok, maybe I’ll take a look at the 0z model run tonight too...

075E1FB2-0228-4F9D-8A39-2FA6144E4C76.png

DDD35CA4-EB07-4D04-815E-1EFBF7CB5689.png

AC726344-706F-4437-9A80-D279943E99D8.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lol, well you Sus Valley folks that felt a little left out in the QPF department yesterday should be excited for Wed-Thursday. 

95096149_3107093929341673_4476430875436777472_n.thumb.png.41c6dcff4ed2259783cc17b0878f2adf.png

CTP has mentioned this particular threat in the long range portion of their discussion the last couple days and seem pretty keen on an elevated flooding risk with this. Deep southerly flow ahead of this system progged for the Lakes likely imply a rain event within which a 3-6 hour period of heavy rainfall with some imbedded convection could create some issues. 3 and 6 hr FFG values are in that 2-3" range in the LSV (more like 3" in the 6hr values). They're notable lower in the western counties in the CTP region (AOO/JST) as well as the northern tier. Timing and probably track still need resolved, as corridor of heaviest precip amounts could end up being more narrow. 

Also fun, I just saw Pittsburgh NWS post on their Facebook that based on this weeks forecasts right now Pittsburgh, Zanesville, and Morgantown will have recorded a lower max temp in April than in January... (70/73/71) vs (71/74/74). First time that would be recorded ever in their climate records. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

 

Also fun, I just saw Pittsburgh NWS post on their Facebook that based on this weeks forecasts right now Pittsburgh, Zanesville, and Morgantown will have recorded a lower max temp in April than in January... (70/73/71) vs (71/74/74). First time that would be recorded ever in their climate records. 

Might as well pile it on and put this winter down as the worst ever for cold and snow...I am sure there are arguments for others though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And right on cue, when the storm moves out, the winds move in. While it's not as bad as past events, 45 degrees with a 20+ mph wind is chilly. I am SO OVER this pattern. Where is our late April/early May normal weather???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Voyager said:

And right on cue, when the storm moves out, the winds move in. While it's not as bad as past events, 45 degrees with a 20+ mph wind is chilly. I am SO OVER this pattern. Where is our late April/early May normal weather???

Man I don't want to be that guy, but the Euro has been doing it's best "year without a summer" impression lol. The overnight run wrecked Northern PA/Southern NY with another snowstorm (yesterday's 12z did pretty much the same thing) on May freaking 6th. This is the Euro we're talking about, and the fact that it's even showing something like this at this point in the spring season is downright remarkable. At this rate the southern tier NY/Catskills region might end up with a better "winter" MAM than DJF. There were some pretty significant snows up there from the weekend system. 

The weather isn't going to be wall to wall horrendous going into the first couple weeks of May, there will be nice weather and any sunny day will make things nice with the strong sun. But we're settled into an overall western ridge/eastern trough regime. Temperatures looks to remain below normal overall. The Euro is riding solo on the May 6th snowstorm but that period is showing an amplification in the eastern trough in that timeframe on modeling. 

1 day average 850mb temps on 0z Euro ensemble:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_1day-8896000.thumb.png.0f83318f1a952a97a1e7ea1da704340d.png

That's quite a solid signal for chilly weather. If I had gardening/planting/farming interests, I would be very wary of a high chance of seeing a late freeze(s) during the first half of May and be ready to deal with one. The good news in all of this? I would say by the time we transition to a warmer pattern that we'll be at a point in the spring where we won't be backtracking to weather like we're seeing now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wed night-Thursday's system is still presenting a distinct heavy rain/flooding threat. The Euro has seemed to be the wettest/slowest operational model with this system, which is probably a fair assumption that wetter is probably the way to go given the strong southerly flow driving high PWATs and the overall pattern. NAM and GFS aren't quite as wet, and 12km NAM has a weak spot in the Sus Valley. The ensembles, GEFS/Canadian/Euro/SREF generally support the wetter Euro region wide. 

Still think the heavy rain portion of this event is going to come over a 3-6 hour period within the overall 18-24 hr duration of precip from later tomorrow-Thursday afternoon. That invites sharp rises on the waterways across the area as FFG is pretty low (especially in the central) and waterways are running a bit elevated. Another thing to watch is secondary development on/near the Mid-Atlantic coast, which may hang the heavy rain longer somewhere in Eastern PA.  WPC has Eastern PA in a slight risk on it's excessive rainfall outlook Thursday (Day 3).

GEFS guidance for the Sus River @ Harrisburg (NAEFS is similar)

HARP1_GEFS_SSTG.expvalue.gif.d4247c8439f1a355b0c1679175e62c2e.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That is almost jaw dropping. It's crazy how the pattern set up overall since December. Trough west/ridge east all winter and now the reversal. But, I guess what we're seeing is still better than the repeat after repeat of severe outbreaks in the southeast, which this pattern seems to keep producing as well...

Side note. My mom lives in Phoenix, AZ and the winter was chilly and wet by their standards. Now, all this week they are under an excessive heat warning with high temps running 100 to 105 nearly every day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sunny and 61 here...beautiful day so far.

Been raining on and off here all day....glad I got out Saturday evening to mow despite me thinking I would wait until today.  Bone chilling 46 degrees. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, paweather said:

As I kept saying about 2020 I am holding out hope for May Snow! :-) Thanks Mag for the update. 

If we actually get any May snow at my house I will not be responsible for my actions... :yikes:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Been raining on and off here all day....glad I got out Saturday evening to mow despite me thinking I would wait until today.  Bone chilling 46 degrees. 

I saw that on radar and I'm stunned...it is a picture perfect day here. There are just a few small cumulus clouds but it is 95% blue sky. Current temp is 64.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I saw that on radar and I'm stunned...it is a picture perfect day here. There are just a few small cumulus clouds but it is 95% blue sky. Current temp is 64.

I know a lot of people are hating the weather this spring, but I rank it in the top 5 best springs ever. The ones I rank above this one had snow here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.