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MAG5035

Central PA - Spring 2020

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This new thread should hold us over for awhile.

I'm starting to feel like a broken record, but until the AO breaks down we are going to remain in the same general pattern we've had largely the last 2 months. The major downturn of the EPO in the progs does offer up a potential winter opportunity later this coming weekend as the monster East Pac into AK ridge (-EPO) tries to press the cold via a very strong high tracking to the north. Again, this +AO regime up over the pole is mitigating what such a negative EPO could potentially do. Another issue is the trough dumping into the west coast (-PNA) It does appear to be enough to suppress the storm track in the case of this storm next week but there doesn't appear to much opportunity for the wave being progged to deepen much. If we didn't have the continued low heights over the pole, we would be probably talking a major period of cold for March incoming with how negative the EPO is forecast to go. 

Here's todays Euro at H144, first the surface and then the 500mb.. and you can see what this +AO (and -PNA) does despite the monster -EPO. But you can also see that the -EPO tries to press the cold into the northern US despite a 500mb look that doesn't look anything of the sort. It also shows this wave doesn't have much opportunity for amplification. So while we may time this really strong high (1048 in the case of today's Euro) with a wave to get wintry precip. It may not be much, or even suppressed. 

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@MAG5035

Yes, The EPO looks to go into significant negative territory by later this week.

The MJO on the Euro also looks to emerge from the COD into phase 2 & 3, which are good for cold in the east in March.

I think that the models will respond & give us chances for winter weather over the next few weeks.

 

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11 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That, and when you wake up and see that the last post in the long range thread to our south was 16 hours ago.

I'm bringing this over here. Yea i was reading some of that last night and this morning, which continued over to their banter. I've noticed it seems the forums have been moderated less the last couple winters.. which is fine in some respects as there's no need to get super strict on being on topic or some banter scattered here and there, even in the busier threads (this one is small enough that usually banter isn't an issue). But a couple of those folks down there need 5 posted or banned as it's been reading maybe slightly better than your run of the mill facebook news comment section. 

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The 12z Euro & EPS did try to have the weekend Winter storm threat gain some latitude in the Midwest, but then the strong High in Canada suppresses the storm as it travels east.

If the High is slightly weaker or the low can amp up a little more, than we could be in business for a light to moderate winter storm by the end of the week.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I'm bringing this over here. Yea i was reading some of that last night and this morning, which continued over to their banter. I've noticed it seems the forums have been moderated less the last couple winters.. which is fine in some respects as there's no need to get super strict on being on topic or some banter scattered here and there, even in the busier threads (this one is small enough that usually banter isn't an issue). But a couple of those folks down there need 5 posted or banned as it's been reading maybe slightly better than your run of the mill facebook news comment section. 

Agreed - there's a difference between having a respectful disagreement versus personal attacks and name calling. It's been ugly at times for sure.

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16 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Agreed - there's a difference between having a respectful disagreement versus personal attacks and name calling. It's been ugly at times for sure.

I have no doubt that some of the difference between there and here can be attributed to happiness of lifestyle.  If I had to live in Northern VA or Southern MD I would always be grouchy as well with real estate taxes of 10+ a year, middle class housing costing 300-700K, traffic, and having the plan to go get a pizza by judging how many hours the traffic, pizza line and wait for it to be made will be. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@MAG5035 my apologies, and boy do I feel stupid...for the past 12 hours I've been posting in 2 threads totally oblivious. 

What is your biggest snowfall to date for the season? 

There is a chance that the Feb thread from this year is the shortest ever so we were just trying to shovel the terrible truth under a pile of extra posts. 

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The Euro was juiced up & gained latitude in the Midwest for the weekend potential. It still fizzled our east of the mountains this run, but the potential is there for a light to moderate event if this holds together. Verbatim this run was a decent snow event from Nebraska to western PA. There is s strong High to the north in Canada. If the storm holds together a little more, CTP could have a chance to get involved.

 

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I really do not want to see this at all at this point.  We didn't really have a winter, and I just don't want it in March.  Hopefully, like the rest of the storms it will move north as times goes by.  I'm ready for summer.

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4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@MAG5035 my apologies, and boy do I feel stupid...for the past 12 hours I've been posting in 2 threads totally oblivious. 

What is your biggest snowfall to date for the season? 

Haha it’s okay.

My biggest single event this year was 2.1” back in Jan, of which like an inch of that was actually sleet. I’ve never seen a winter like that here, the bad ones always have at least one half decent event. The only reason I have 15.5” is being right at the foot of the Laurels and getting several inch or less type snows. The airport 15 miles SE of Altoona (KAOO) I think has like 5” for the season. We could get whatever large snowstorm from here out in the next few weeks but it isn’t going to change that stretch of futility. 

I almost hope that we don’t see anything notable til next winter. Because this winter has pretty much demonstrated what a truly bad one looks like.

 

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Well the GFS is still trying to give the LSV some parting gift flakes this Sunday to usher out the "Winter Season of 19/20"  but al other guidance I saw, especially the EC, takes precip well south of us.

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Well the GFS is still trying to give the LSV some parting gift flakes this Sunday to usher out the "Winter Season of 19/20"  but al other guidance I saw, especially the EC, takes precip well south of us.

I don’t even want it to snow. Just end this disaster.
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Harrisburg has saved a TON of money this year - they haven't had to use a plow or a grain of salt on the streets the entire season.

It's remarkable. 

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1 hour ago, anotherman said:


I don’t even want it to snow. Just end this disaster.

It took me a long time...way too long, but I'm there now as well. It's just too nice to go back. .4" isn't going to mean anything going forward anyway. 

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It took me a long time...way too long, but I'm there now as well. It's just too nice to go back. .4" isn't going to mean anything going forward anyway. 

.4" seems to be the number for this storm.  If someone gets that total I will marvel at the prognostication abilities of those that called for it.  

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It took me a long time...way too long, but I'm there now as well. It's just too nice to go back. .4" isn't going to mean anything going forward anyway. 

Agree! Lets put this long lasting spring behind us.  Fall is only six months away.

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

.4" seems to be the number for this storm.  If someone gets that total I will marvel at the prognostication abilities of those that called for it.  

Can really call it a storm? It has been so bad that getting .4" is now a snowstorm.  Lol  Next year 3 inches will be a hecs.

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2 hours ago, daxx said:

Can really call it a storm? It has been so bad that getting .4" is now a snowstorm.  Lol  Next year 3 inches will be a hecs(That's what she said)

I just use the word storm interchangeably with a precip event.  I will say that this area is only 4 years removed from a super Hec's so its not like it has been decades since a big snow. 

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35 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I just use the word storm interchangeably with a precip event.  I will say that this area is only 4 years removed from a super Hec's so its not like it has been decades since a big snow. 

Yes...2016 was the last time we had a Hec's and 2012 was our last real shit winter,so yea we are winning!

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6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

How long until blizz puts up day 9 gfs snow maps lol? I admire his optimism but it’s just time to move on as others have said.

DUDE....................Happy Birthday....................Cheers :drunk:

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12 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

How long until blizz puts up day 9 gfs snow maps lol? I admire his optimism but it’s just time to move on as others have said.

Are you going to be the spring/summer version of Blizz and start posting 10 day severe maps? :lol:

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Are you going to be the spring/summer version of Blizz and start posting 10 day severe maps? :lol:

Lol Spc maps are coming

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11 minutes ago, canderson said:

We have worse luck with those than 10 day digital snowstorms. 

My brother works for the place that publishes the Old Farmers Almanac so if I start dishing out bits of extra info for next winter you guys know it is from a reliable source that trumps any 10 day digital snow map.

 

 

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I do not post on any other boards so this is off topic but the NHL, NCAA and NBA playing the rest of their games with no fans?  Wow.  If that plays out it is really something to tell the grand kids.

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