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MAG5035

Central PA - Spring 2020

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20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Bubbler, what do you think the chances are that some of us take a run at 80 on Friday?

BTW - Horst at least mentioned the possibility for a "brush with a little light snow" late Sunday PM...

Looks like a pretty stout shot of cold air coming for the weekend.

I would be surprised if it went to 80.  Looking at just one model, GFS, the place where the 80's get to in VA are still only 81/82.  I bet LSV hits mid 70's though.  

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Interesting...we'll see. It's most likely going to come down to how much sun we get.

Lack of sun prob keeps it from 80 up here. 

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Interesting...we'll see. It's most likely going to come down to how much sun we get.

I will say that if we get to a point where people are in a "shelter in place" situation I would prefer it is nice out! 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I will say that if we get to a point where people are in a "shelter in place" situation I would prefer it is nice out! 

Agree 100%. 

I am a through and through cold guy...but it's going to be hard not to embrace the weather on Friday on several levels, not the least of which is any potential mitigation of the virus. A long warm stretch would probably be very beneficial right about now.

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Agree 100%. 

I am a through and through cold guy...but it's going to be hard not to embrace the weather on Friday on several levels, not the least of which is any potential mitigation of the virus. A long warm stretch would probably be very beneficial right about now.

That too though I am not sure about this warm weather thing yet.  Its pretty warn in Iran....lots of 60's and 70's.  Its also warm in Florida. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That too though I am not sure about this warm weather thing yet.  Its pretty warn in Iran....lots of 60's and 70's.  Its also warm in Florida. 

If i read correctly 77 deg is the threshold.

One needs to remember that many of the infections in the "warmer" locals, are likely being brought in, and the spread is likely to be much less.  

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Just now, pasnownut said:

If i read correctly 77 deg is the threshold.

One needs to remember that many of the infections in the "warmer" locals, are likely being brought in, and the spread is likely to be much less.  

It’s expanding in the Philippines where it’s in the 90s. I don’t think warmth does anything to this virus.

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

If i read correctly 77 deg is the threshold.

One needs to remember that many of the infections in the "warmer" locals, are likely being brought in, and the spread is likely to be much less.  

 

1 hour ago, canderson said:

It’s expanding in the Philippines where it’s in the 90s. I don’t think warmth does anything to this virus.

I had heard heat does nothing to slow it, but then again shit changes every hour

 

we get rain Friday along with the warm temp, Right?

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5 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

thanks. I was thinking of a day off :D

We should get together for brews but all stand six feet apart and wash hands constantly lol.

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

First confirmed PA death from Coronavirus was an adult from Northampton county. :( 

Read this statement earlier and it rings true: it’s going to get bad before it gets worse. 

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9 hours ago, pasnownut said:

I think it would do a lot of good for the mood of people stuck at home, and kids can go outside and enjoy it.  

Thats a big win to me.  

Blizz, bring it home.  Peeps stay off the roads, so the crew can clean them and keep the truckers rollin'.

The 12z EPS is really trying to bring us some snow on Monday.

This is the best 5 day look on the EPS in a long time.

This would be our second best winter storm of the season if this were to verify.

Only 5 days to go...

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8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hey @pasnownut , check out the 18z EPS control run for Monday. You could ride your snowmobile in northern Lancaster county if this verified.

 

 

Oh what the hell, here is the standard EC map.  The EC is really the only one on board for this that I saw and all models show the surface temps being very questionable.  As many have said a solution like this would take away part of the historic nature of this winter though 2020 is always going to be remembered for other things than a bad winter. 

image.thumb.png.210decda78a1e6c86fe5dfe96954c04a.png

 

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Good morning everyone, I hope all is well with you & your families & friends.

The 0z Euro crushes CTP with snow on Monday. We are now less than 5 days away. Cold air will be in place beginning on Saturday. The storm looks to take the rare track this year to our south & east.

 

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The 0z Euro Op & Control run are also on board for a good snowfall on Monday.

The Other models at 0z we’re not as enthusiastic, but they have shown this storm on & off over the last few days.

It is good to see the Euro & EPS onboard at this stage.

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BC508621-873B-4206-9416-5E311961E2D7.png

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CTP, in their morning forecast discussion, is ramping up their thoughts on the Monday storm potential.

“.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... All model guidance supports a high confidence forecast of fair and chilly weather for the upcoming weekend, as a large area of high pressure builds over eastern Canada. Model spread and forecast uncertainty ramp up early next week. 00Z Thu operational EC and latest runs of the NBM have converged toward a cold/potentially more snowy solution for late Sunday night/Monday (compared to the 12Z Wed runs of NAEFS and ECENS which supported a good chance of light mixed rain/snow across region). Phasing and amplification of initially flat southern and northern stream upper short waves helps to develop a sfc low near the DelMarva Coast with the nose of a potent southeasterly LLJ feeding a good amount of moisture into an area of mdtly strong ascent over the CWA via coupled jet streak circulations. Late March sun angle and temps well above freezing in most locations throughout the Susq Valley should limit any winter weather impacts there. However, higher terrain and lower thicknesses could lead to more significant impacts from a few to several inches of wet snow with temps ranging through the 30s.”

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

That mauler, shockingly, has already trended just far enough north that instead of me getting several inches of snow, it's now rain.

There is no reason why this won't trend farther north in this pattern.

Yep, it has trended north.  With that said this is arguably the best look of the winter season.  Cold air is shallow and will not withstand much but we have a low going south of the Delmarva.  Lack of cold air may doom the LSV but its close. 

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6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

It’s gon’ rain... just the story of the year.

As Blizz pointed out there are some connections that are better than they have been.

However...there's also more than enough that are hostile, and especially given the time of the year...rain or mostly rain has to be favored outside of the higher elevations of northern PA and perhaps the Laurels. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

As Blizz pointed out there are some connections that are better than they have been.

However...there's also more than enough that are hostile, and especially given the time of the year...rain or mostly rain has to be favored outside of the higher elevations of northern PA and perhaps the Laurels. 

Higher elevations may get some wet/slushy accumulation for sure.

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