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Central PA - Spring 2020


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1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Hope some of you western guys start posting obs reports. I'll be living through your eyes for the first part of the day until that precip shield makes it east of the Susquehanna.

Has not been too bad here.  I suspect the heaviest is already past us and we are in for a stratiform rain until afternoon.   Its warm at 61. 

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1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Looping the IR satellite, you can see the cloud tops cooling and back building to the west with a fire hose of moisture heading right for us.   I wouldn’t write this event off yet.    

I bet we end up with another inch or so of rain today but did not see a ton of training or stalling going on and I thought yesterday's zones had the large shield lasting into tonight and am not sure that happens out here.  Today's zones did change from rain to showery after mid dayish. 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I bet we end up with another inch or so of rain today but did not see a ton of training or stalling going on and I thought yesterday's zones had the large shield lasting into tonight and am not sure that happens out here.  Today's zones did change from rain to showery after mid dayish. 

The band down from Roanoke to west of Altoona is the one I’m watching for the heaviest round later for us.    Guess we’ll see

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I bet we end up with another inch or so of rain today but did not see a ton of training or stalling going on and I thought yesterday's zones had the large shield lasting into tonight and am not sure that happens out here.  Today's zones did change from rain to showery after mid dayish. 

How much do you have so far today. I'm at 0.00" as it hasn't started here yet, save for a couple of fat raindrops when I put the dog out this morning around 5:00am.

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Just now, Voyager said:

How much do you have so far today. I'm at 0.00" as it hasn't started here yet, save for a couple of fat raindrops when I put the dog out this morning around 5:00am.

I do not have an expensive setup so my rain gauge is not perfect but between 1/2 and 3/4".  Its raining pretty good right now. I think that 1.5-2" range is a cinch at this point for us.  

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I do not have an expensive setup so my rain gauge is not perfect but between 1/2 and 3/4".  Its raining pretty good right now. I think that 1.5-2" range is a cinch at this point for us.  

Thanks. Neither do I, but mine is usually pretty close to the USGS automated gauge about a half mile north of my house.

Over the next hour (which is as far as it goes) AccuWx's future radar does not move the eastern edge at all and basically stalls it along a line from Bloomsburg to Hegins to Hershey to Spring Grove.

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4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Looping the IR satellite, you can see the cloud tops cooling and back building to the west with a fire hose of moisture heading right for us.   I wouldn’t write this event off yet.    Maybe someone can post it cough cough @MAG5035 or someone more techy than me 

Seems like the best plume of precip is residing up I-81 to H-burg and then up the river to IPT currently. That's coinciding with main part of the moisture fetch from the Gulf. This will eventually progress east across the rest of the state, where secondary wave slows the frontal passage some and is why eastern PA is under more of a flood threat this afternoon. There's another area of heavier precip in west-central PA as well, which may consolidate some with the other area later on today in eastern PA as the front slows down. I had been thinking this event as a 3-6 hour period of the heavier rain within the overall event.. which is the key to if any flooding ends up occurring. The flood threat is looking more on the minor end with the poor drainage and smaller waterways, although the Main Susquehanna should at least see a pretty significant rise.

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Seems like the best plume of precip is residing up I-81 to H-burg and then up the river to IPT currently. That's coinciding with main part of the moisture fetch from the Gulf. This will eventually progress east across the rest of the state, where secondary wave slows the frontal passage some and is why eastern PA is under more of a flood threat this afternoon. There's another area of heavier precip in west-central PA as well, which may consolidate some with the other area later on today in eastern PA as the front slows down. I had been thinking this event as a 3-6 hour period of the heavier rain within the overall event.. which is the key to if any flooding ends up occurring. The flood threat is looking more on the minor end with the poor drainage and smaller waterways, although the Main Susquehanna should at least see a pretty significant rise.

Thanks for the update.   Bands are banked right up against the ridge which is expected with that se fetch.     

F6E32FB2-6759-4A30-B575-DA6749745041.png

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14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Man, the radar presentation looks very similar to Lee. Obviously not even close to the same magnitude, but the orientation and width of the fire hose is similar.

And location. We got kind of sideswiped by Lee while the Susquehanna basin got dumped on. That same thing happened back in 2018 when Pine Grove kept getting floods. I wonder why, when south to north training events set up, the Susquehanna seems to be the favored location for the fire hose to spray...

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Just now, Voyager said:

I've been watching the HRRR closely this morning, and it now appears that we don't really get our heaviest rain until after 3:00pm and probably close to supper time. Originally, I was kind of expecting an all day washout.

That was part of my opinion from this AM.  by 3PM I expect it to be much drier here vs. an all day wash out.  Our zones now depict that as well.   That bad in VA, that @Cashtown_Coop, mentioned, may be our big hurrah.  

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7 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

1.30”+ so far 

rates holding at .30 to .40” / hr

We are still around 1" here...rain has stopped for the time being.  You look like you really are taking advantage of precip pushing up against the ridges like you mentioned.  Radar shows yellows that keep reforming near you. (Not your fancy MS Radar  the one I am using!).

 

 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

We are still around 1" here...rain has stopped for the time being.  You look like you really are taking advantage of precip pushing up against the ridges like you mentioned.  Radar shows yellows that keep reforming near you. (Not your fancy MS Radar  the one I am using!).

 

 

You need to step your game up over there.   

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