March Medium/Long Range Disco

[losetoa6]

14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How’s our next snowstorm looking. Are the probability maps looking good?

Quick peek shows Gfs and icon with light snow this weekend. 

[Interstate]

So I see we have hit rock bottom.

[WinterWxLuvr]

12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

How anyone could experience a day like today with 70s, flowers blooming, birds chirping, etc. and want it to snow is beyond me. Sunset after 7pm. Cold beer. Spring.

Proper interpretation is a key skill around here.

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

How anyone could experience a day like today with 70s, flowers blooming, birds chirping, etc. and want it to snow is beyond me. Sunset after 7pm. Cold beer. Spring.

People can enjoy 2 things you know. I am loving this weather. I also loved playing in the snow Saturday. 

[BristowWx]

26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Quick peek shows Gfs and icon with light snow this weekend. 

couple runs had something similar-ish this 12z GFS look colder for that but drier compared to 6z...looks to get chilly afterwards so maybe some hope there to hold off the warm weather beyond the next couple days.  But spring will ultimately win the war as we know.  Just gotta shut the blinds until November.

[Ji]

52 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How’s our next snowstorm looking. Are the probability maps looking good?

this is actually our best chance in a long time. We got deep cold high pressure...just neeed some moisture

[losetoa6]

2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

How anyone could experience a day like today with 70s, flowers blooming, birds chirping, etc. and want it to snow is beyond me. Sunset after 7pm. Cold beer. Spring.

This is easy...

Days like today and Sunday are a dime a dozen.  Pick any date on the calendar and you can get a day like yesterday or today.  Snow is a precious commodity only possible for a  few months 

Beer ...otoh is  everyday  and anyday 

Or was it... anyday and  everyday 

[Its a Breeze]

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

This is easy...

Days like today are a dime a dozen.  Pick any day on the calendar and you can get a day like yesterday or today.  Snow is a precious commodity only possible for a  few months 

The window for days like this is just as short! It's only a matter of time before the heat and humidity become unbearable....

[CAPE]

37 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

The window for days like this is just as short! It's only a matter of time before the heat and humidity become unbearable....

Our best run of "nice" days- 60s and 70s and low dews- comes in the Fall. Warm and humid can set in pretty quickly in Spring around here.

[Kmlwx]

11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Our best run of "nice" days- 60s and 70s and low dews- comes in the Fall. Warm and humid can set in pretty quickly in Spring around here.

Part of that is also what you've adapted to. 70 degrees with a dew in the upper 50s can feel awesome in fall but humid in spring. 

[losetoa6]

Will is slacking...

 

[osfan24]

2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

How anyone could experience a day like today with 70s, flowers blooming, birds chirping, etc. and want it to snow is beyond me. Sunset after 7pm. Cold beer. Spring.

Because there are a lot more of these days than snow days. Also, while there are more of these days than snow days, there are actually not THAT many San Diego-type days here. Most of our springs are a mixture of cool and rainy and/or huge jumps in temperature before you can adjust. If it was a string of beautiful, 70 degree days, that would be different. But we will inevitably get a jump from rain and 60 to hot and humid and mid 80's.

[Stormfly]

My concern this year is insects, particularly the stinging variety.  And I have lots of tree work on our property that I need to do.  As a neighbor of mine who's in his 80s tells me, it keeps you young.  He burns about 10 cords/year heating his place but now his son who is an arborist helps a lot.  His pile was up to 30+ cords last fall and it doesn't look like he's put much of a dent in that.  I wonder why! LOL  I don't mind the warmer temps if it's not gonna snow TBH.  We have Diesel (backup power+heat), solar, and electric (BGE) providing NM service here.  Plus a pellet stove which I usually put a handful of tons through, this year has been the lightest indeed!  I just wish we had a few zero degree lows in Jan.  Does a good job of knocking down those damnable insects.

[BristowWx]

My concern is no one commented on HH 138...cmon folks...it’s still March 

[Maestrobjwa]

37 minutes ago, Zanclidae said:

My concern this year is insects, particularly the stinging variety.  And I have lots of tree work on our property that I need to do.  As a neighbor of mine who's in his 80s tells me, it keeps you young.  He burns about 10 cords/year heating his place but now his son who is an arborist helps a lot.  His pile was up to 30+ cords last fall and it doesn't look like he's put much of a dent in that.  I wonder why! LOL  I don't mind the warmer temps if it's not gonna snow TBH.  We have Diesel (backup power+heat), solar, and electric (BGE) providing NM service here.  Plus a pellet stove which I usually put a handful of tons through, this year has been the lightest indeed!  I just wish we had a few zero degree lows in Jan.  Does a good job of knocking down those damnable insects.

Not to be rude...and I know tracking season is on it's last week or two...but shouldn't these kind of things be discussed in one of the other threads?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, BristowWx said:

My concern is no one commented on HH 138...cmon folks...it’s still March 

I was actually just about to say something about that, lol Man I'm gonna be picky and hope we can get .2 of an inch that just to save this winter from being a one incher at BWI...lol

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I was actually just about to say something about that, lol Man I'm gonna be picky and hope we can get .2 of an inch that just to save this winter from being a one incher at BWI...lol

My man!  1050 high to the north...East to west...540 line tucked south..what could go wrong

[Ji]

19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

My man!  1050 high to the north...East to west...540 line tucked south..what could go wrong

i said this was one of our better setups of the year lol....we just need some kind of storm

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i said this was one of our better setups of the year lol....we just need some kind of storm

I am still skeptical.  Rightly so.  But it’s not impossible to snow in mid March...it’s just unlikely.  It’s likely to snow in Feb but it didn’t.  One more round.  

[Ji]

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I am still skeptical.  Rightly so.  But it’s not impossible to snow in mid March...it’s just unlikely.  It’s likely to snow in Feb but it didn’t.  One more round.  

have we had a 1050 high? Its only 100 hours out pretty much. We just need a moisture stream

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

have we had a 1050 high? Its only 100 hours out pretty much. We just need a moisture stream

It likely wont be 1050 in reality, and even the general look as advertised is a 50 degree day in mid March without a deep low developing of the NC coast. Even then it would likely just be 40 degree rain.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

have we had a 1050 high? Its only 100 hours out pretty much. We just need a moisture stream

No not that I can recall.  Modeled maybe but not this close in time.  1050 is great provided it doesn’t push too far south and crush anything incoming south.  Curious about the GEFS.  My guess is it won’t like this situation.  

[BristowWx]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

It likely wont be 1050 in reality, and even the general look as advertised is a 50 degree day in mid March without a deep low developing of the NC coast. Even then it would likely just be 40 degree rain.

Fair enough But it has snowed on March 15th.  You are saying a 1050 wedging south with a deepening low off NC would still be rain everywhere or just 95 East? This as depicted isn’t a deepening low anyway. 

[losetoa6]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

have we had a 1050 high? Its only 100 hours out pretty much. We just need a moisture stream

I think a modest strong vort with a good moisture plume as you said timed decent with that hp could get us a  lil event 

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Fair enough But it has snowed on March 15th.  You are saying a 1050 wedging south with a deepening low off NC would still be rain everywhere or just 95 East? This as depicted isn’t a deepening low anyway. 

Ofc it has. This year? Highly doubt it. As depicted it is not wedging very far south- it is sliding across to the north with nothing impeding it, and no there isn't a deep low. Just mentioned that because with progressive flow it would likely still end up being a fail, outside of perfect timing and a rapidly deepening low in the right spot.

[stormtracker]

28 minutes ago, Ji said:

have we had a 1050 high? Its only 100 hours out pretty much. We just need a moisture stream

Come on.  You know it's not going to be there tonight.   When have we ever gotten two good runs in a row or something that holds. 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Ofc it has. This year? Highly doubt it. As depicted it is not wedging very far south- it is sliding across to the north with nothing impeding it, and no there isn't a deep low. Just mentioned that because with progressive flow it would likely still end up being a fail, outside of perfect timing and a rapidly deepening low in the right spot.

Agreed all points.  Fun to talk about something other than blooming flowers.  We’ll watch it but Randy is right..two good runs is folly at this point. 

[losetoa6]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Ofc it has. This year? Highly doubt it. As depicted it is not wedging very far south- it is sliding across to the north with nothing impeding it, and no there isn't a deep low. Just mentioned that because with progressive flow it would likely still end up being a fail, outside of perfect timing and a rapidly deepening low in the right spot.

I understand where you're coming from but in this particular setup as is not sure we need a rapidly deepening low as much as just a half decent sw ( say 1006 - 1010 mb coming at us w to e or wsw to ene )...with moderate + rates .Gefs verbatim keeps the mid Atlantic in northerly flow for 36 hrs + Saturday through Sunday. Ample time for a sw to run at us . The  Atlantic side doesn't look as crappy as many previous setups . The biggest problem is the strength of the vort energy imao.  If we can get a decent piece to eject instead of strungout pieces. Just my opinion lol. Still low chance but its something to track 

[Ji]

Omg 2 good gfs runs in a row

[yoda]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Omg 2 good gfs runs in a row

Good run for i81 corridor to BR... i95 naso much