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2020 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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26 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Sun popping out here most of the morning in SC WI. Last three HRRR runs with a stormier look for us this evening, although the 12Z runs lost that juicy sup tracking along the Dane/Green-Rock County line ~22-23Z that the 10-11Z runs had.

@madwx

i'll be out if anything tracks into S WI, gotta get my storm chances in considering I most likely won't be able to go to the plains to chase this year

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Warch coming for my area

 

mcd0485.gif.64a0350c479d52182e518da667bce493.gif

 

Quote
Mesoscale Discussion 0485
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Missouri...southeast Iowa...into western
   Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 282033Z - 282200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms with the potential for damaging wind
   gusts and large hail with a tornado or two will be likely this
   afternoon and evening.

   DISCUSSION...Mid-level ascent from an approaching shortwave trough
   over the central High Plains is impinging on the warm sector of a
   surface cyclone over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Boundary
   layer moisture has increased through the day across Missouri and
   southern Illinois with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s into the
   low 60s F. As a result of the moistening, 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
   has developed across the area. The instability is concurrent with
   effective bulk-shear of 30 to 40 kt. Severe storms including a mix
   of line segments and a few supercells are likely to develop over the
   next 1 to 2 hours along the surface trough/cold-front trailing the
   surface low. Initially, these storms will pose a risk for a tornado
   or two but will transition to a damaging winds and hail threat.

   ..Lyons/Cook/Thompson.. 04/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

 

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1 hour ago, WeatherMonger said:

Going to be the same old song and dance IMBY, doesn't matter if it rains all morning or plentiful sunshine. Sangamon county is a storm killer. Always regains strength after passing. 

But I remember following those long track supercells that hit on March 12, 2006 that produced two tornadoes in Springfield.

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3 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

But I remember following those long track supercells that hit on March 12, 2006

I remember it well, it's how I found Acccuwx in 2010, found a few forums with threads following the days events.

 

I'm not saying it can't happen, just how it usually pans out. I'll pass on another 3/12/06 though. Was about 200 yds off the  northern edge of the path of the first(main) tornado. Was outside trying to get some lightening pics listening to Gus Gordon(local met at the time) talk about a confirmed tornado less than 1/4 mile from me headed towards me

Finally let out an audible shriek as winds got into the probable 90mph range, back sliding glass door was a straight shot from front door. Seen the power flash as the weatherhead was ripped down. Was under a blizzard warning before power was restored :lol:

 

Definitely got lucky on that one and one of the reasons I tend to hope for but not get overly disappointed when strong storms are forecast. Never know when "that one" is going to actually happen.

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Central IL and IN are under marginal risk this Sat. evening with storms starting to fire in west central IL west of Springfield and   Lincoln.  Let's see what develops. Right now they are elevated on the north side of the front....Springfield 76/49    Salem 78/64   SPC not currently expecting to issue a watch due to sparse nature of convection, but damaging wind gusts and some hail may occur.

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