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Morning thoughts...

1. The system responsible for the rain yesterday and overnight will be moving well north of the region today. The area of steadiest rain is now moving eastward across parts of upstate New York, Ontario, Quebec, and parts of northern New England.

2. Select rainfall amounts through 8 am include: Allentown: 0.77"; Boston: 0.25"; Bridgeport: 0.28"; Islip: 0.49"; New York City: 0.47"; Newark: 0.23"; Philadelphia: 1.14"; and, Providence: 0.74"

3. More record heat is likely in the Southeast. Following its March record high temperature of 94° yesterday, Jacksonville could reach 90° for a record-breaking 5th time in March later today.

4. On March 28, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was 13,559,443 square kilometers. That was the lowest figure on record for March 28. The old record was 13,572,036 square kilometers, which was set in 2017.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

1. The system responsible for the rain yesterday and overnight will be moving well north of the region today. The area of steadiest rain is now moving eastward across parts of upstate New York, Ontario, Quebec, and parts of northern New England.

2. Select rainfall amounts through 8 am include: Allentown: 0.77"; Boston: 0.25"; Bridgeport: 0.28"; Islip: 0.49"; New York City: 0.47"; Newark: 0.23"; Philadelphia: 1.14"; and, Providence: 0.74"

3. More record heat is likely in the Southeast. Following its March record high temperature of 94° yesterday, Jacksonville could reach 90° for a record-breaking 5th time in March later today.

4. On March 28, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was 13,559,443 square kilometers. That was the lowest figure on record for March 28. The old record was 13,572,036 square kilometers, which was set in 2017.

It should be interesting to see if the early heat has an effect on the outbreak figures in the southeast. As always .....

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Very Impressive +5SD block near Greenland. Typical spring -NAO temperature pattern. Cool inshore flow here with 80’s over the Mid-Atlantic.

6B5A39DE-F0E1-4C85-829D-BEF80626E07E.thumb.jpeg.6c8691fa5aa86c1288894e923b8fa162.jpeg
C0E76A34-366F-4612-9F33-E19D0193A6EE.thumb.png.83a3c378a64dafb73b3b0fa1843bc9a8.png

 

 

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19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very Impressive +5SD block near Greenland. Typical spring -NAO temperature pattern. Cool inshore flow here with 80’s over the Mid-Atlantic.

6B5A39DE-F0E1-4C85-829D-BEF80626E07E.thumb.jpeg.6c8691fa5aa86c1288894e923b8fa162.jpeg
C0E76A34-366F-4612-9F33-E19D0193A6EE.thumb.png.83a3c378a64dafb73b3b0fa1843bc9a8.png

 

 

90s in NC, record warmth

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48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very Impressive +5SD block near Greenland. Typical spring -NAO temperature pattern. Cool inshore flow here with 80’s over the Mid-Atlantic.

6B5A39DE-F0E1-4C85-829D-BEF80626E07E.thumb.jpeg.6c8691fa5aa86c1288894e923b8fa162.jpeg
C0E76A34-366F-4612-9F33-E19D0193A6EE.thumb.png.83a3c378a64dafb73b3b0fa1843bc9a8.png

 

 

This is what I hate about early spring. Hopefully we turn the corner earlier on more sustained warmth this year versus the last few years. While I wouldn't be expecting 80's here just yet temps in the low/mid 60's would be nice to make things a little bit above normal. Also more active weather would be nice as well.

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the neg nao will have little help from a more neutral ao...the nao is forecast to dip pretty low but rebound mid month...the ao looks positive mid month...I think the first week or two in April will continue the every other day of rain and cool with one or two brief warm days...After mid month break out the shorts and tanning lotion...

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Just now, uncle W said:

the neg nao will have little help from a more neutral ao...the nao is forecast to dip pretty low but rebound mid month...the ao looks positive mid month...I think the first week or two in April will continue the every other day of rain and cool with one or two brief warm days...After mid month break out the shorts and tanning lotion...

That is kinda where Larry Cosgrove seemed to be going in his weekly newsletter. He has been leaning towards a hot mid spring and summer for a while now with an active tropical season. 

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4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

That is kinda where Larry Cosgrove seemed to be going in his weekly newsletter. He has been leaning towards a hot mid spring and summer for a while now with an active tropical season. 

we could use some warm dry days but until we get the neg ao out of the way we will continue to see some cool dreary days...this happens almost every Spring now...

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Just now, uncle W said:

we could use some warm dry days but until we get the neg ao out of the way we will continue to see some cool dreary days...this happens almost every Spring now...

Going deeper into spring and summer I hope we see plenty of severe weather. Last year wasn't to bad severe wise so hopefully it will be a decent again this year. I think some triple digit temps are in the offing this summer.

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Just now, Rtd208 said:

Going deeper into spring and summer I hope we see plenty of severe weather. Last year wasn't to bad severe wise so hopefully it will be a decent again this year. I think some triple digit temps are in the offing this summer.

severe weather is the last thing we need with the virus still around...I hope it doesn't happen but in some places it will get it...we don't need power outages or other problems from severe weather on top of what we are experiencing now...

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

That is kinda where Larry Cosgrove seemed to be going in his weekly newsletter. He has been leaning towards a hot mid spring and summer for a while now with an active tropical season. 

Pretty good evidence that the -NAO is not going to last and it breaks down completely. Come mid-April it’s probably t-shirts and shorts weather. The AO looks to skyrocket by mid month 

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Pretty good evidence that the -NAO is not going to last and it breaks down completely. Come mid-April it’s probably t-shirts and shorts weather. The AO looks to skyrocket by mid month 

I find it funny that even in late March the models could not hold onto a colder change being shown.  Ensembles were pretty solidly in agreement just 4-5 days back on this but they've slowly lost it or just showed it being transient.  Even 97-98/01-02 had colder spring flips for a period but we could not manage that in 11-12 or this year it seems

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6 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Going deeper into spring and summer I hope we see plenty of severe weather. Last year wasn't to bad severe wise so hopefully it will be a decent again this year. I think some triple digit temps are in the offing this summer.

We really don't need the potential problems severe weather brings with everything else going on. I dread what will happen when tropical season fires up with such warm temps on both land and the ocean and GOM. No really hot stuff either, some of these portable hospitals that have been set up would be horrible if it was really warm out especially for the sick and those in full PPE.

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An exceptionally warm March is now concluding.

The first week of April will likely be somewhat cooler than normal to near normal, as the NAO heads toward or even below -1.000. During the April 1-7, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature was 49.3° for New York City and 50.5° for Philadelphia. During cases when the NAO was -0.75 or below, the respective mean temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia were 47.9° and 49.4°.

In parts of the southeastern United States, temperatures reached record high levels earlier today. Daily records included:

Charleston, SC: 87° (tied record set in 1985 and tied in 2012); Jacksonville: 91° (old record: 89°, 1907 and 1991) ***Record 5th March day with a high temperature of 90° or above (old record: 4, March 1907)***; Mobile: 87° (old record: 85°, 1879); New Bern, NC: 89° (old record: 88°, 1985); New Orleans: 84° (old record: 83°, 2000, 2007, 2011, 2012, and 2017); Pensacola: 87° (old record: 83°, 1884 and 1974); and, Savannah: 90° (tied record set in 1907)

New Orleans is on track to record a monthly average temperature near 72.8°. That would smash the March record of 70.7°, which was set in 2012.

It is very likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18. That would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002.

New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

It is increasingly likely that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was -11.35 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.024.

On March 28, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.875 (RMM). The March 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.786.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March and that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.3°, which would rank as the 6th warmest March on record. 

Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.

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A rather intense lightning show visible to my NNE from the line of storms in Columbia/Rensselaer counties. Dry here. 

Edit: little cell cycled up and moved overhead, nice early spring thunderstorm. 

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The last 2 days of March are averaging 49degs., or 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  +6.0[48.2].        March should end at +5.8[48.3].

The first 15 days of April are averaging +2.0[53.0](46/60).       Week 3 looks cold near the 21st., and Week 4 looks Normal.

47* here at 6am.       46* by 8am.     45* at 9am.

 

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19 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very Impressive +5SD block near Greenland. Typical spring -NAO temperature pattern. Cool inshore flow here with 80’s over the Mid-Atlantic.

6B5A39DE-F0E1-4C85-829D-BEF80626E07E.thumb.jpeg.6c8691fa5aa86c1288894e923b8fa162.jpeg
C0E76A34-366F-4612-9F33-E19D0193A6EE.thumb.png.83a3c378a64dafb73b3b0fa1843bc9a8.png

 

 

when do we see hot temps with a -NAO?  in the summer?

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

when do we see hot temps with a -NAO?  in the summer?

 

Yeah, we can see above normal summer temperatures during a -NAO. It looks like parts of Northern Canada could approach record high pressures this week with the -NAO. Models have been showing high pressure getting above 1060 MB this week.

E1E22D7B-14E1-4252-BA02-E5F4D66B6080.thumb.png.783ef838197bf76f81cdbe8279ff3c1c.png

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15 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I find it funny that even in late March the models could not hold onto a colder change being shown.  Ensembles were pretty solidly in agreement just 4-5 days back on this but they've slowly lost it or just showed it being transient.  Even 97-98/01-02 had colder spring flips for a period but we could not manage that in 11-12 or this year it seems

Gulf of Mexico and  Western Atlantic Oceans are warmer than average. Hard to fight that off too

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An exceptionally warm March is now concluding on a cool note.

The first week of April will likely be somewhat cooler than normal to near normal, as the NAO heads toward or even below -1.000. During the April 1-7, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature was 49.3° for New York City and 50.5° for Philadelphia. During cases when the NAO was -0.75 or below, the respective mean temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia were 47.9° and 49.4°.

Afterward, there is uncertainty about the longer-term pattern evolution.

New Orleans will likely record a monthly average temperature near 73.1°. That would smash the March record of 70.7°, which was set in 2012.

It is very likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18. That would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002.

New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

It is increasingly likely that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was -6.61 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.189.

On March 29, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.007 (RMM). The March 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.931.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March and that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record. 

Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be at least somewhat warmer than normal in the East. Although recent runs of the CFSv2 have grown cooler, the latest run of the EPS weeklies was warmer.

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The last day of March is averaging 45degs., or 2degs. BN.

Month to date is +5.8[48.1].         March should end at +5.5[48.0].

The first week of April is averaging 50degs., or 1.5degs. AN.

The first 16 days of April are averaging +6.0[57.0](50/64)  Precipitation is during Week 2 only.

With this kind of a start for April, the following references should be noted, as with the previous 3 months:

Mean 53.0.    #1 57.9 ...........  #10  55.0

46* at 6am.    45* by 9am     48* by 5pm.

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On 3/30/2020 at 8:12 AM, bluewave said:

Yeah, we can see above normal summer temperatures during a -NAO. It looks like parts of Northern Canada could approach record high pressures this week with the -NAO. Models have been showing high pressure getting above 1060 MB this week.

E1E22D7B-14E1-4252-BA02-E5F4D66B6080.thumb.png.783ef838197bf76f81cdbe8279ff3c1c.png

I find that with such huge high pressures, we have big warm ups when we get to the other side.  looks like that might happen next week?

 

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12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

An exceptionally warm March is now concluding on a cool note.

The first week of April will likely be somewhat cooler than normal to near normal, as the NAO heads toward or even below -1.000. During the April 1-7, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature was 49.3° for New York City and 50.5° for Philadelphia. During cases when the NAO was -0.75 or below, the respective mean temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia were 47.9° and 49.4°.

Afterward, there is uncertainty about the longer-term pattern evolution.

New Orleans will likely record a monthly average temperature near 73.1°. That would smash the March record of 70.7°, which was set in 2012.

It is very likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18. That would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002.

New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

It is increasingly likely that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was -6.61 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.189.

On March 29, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.007 (RMM). The March 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.931.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March and that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record. 

Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be at least somewhat warmer than normal in the East. Although recent runs of the CFSv2 have grown cooler, the latest run of the EPS weeklies was warmer.

Looks like we finally get some warmer and drier weather over the weekend and beyond

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