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Chicago Storm

Mid-week potential of something somewhere

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Just now, cyclone77 said:

Out of the game here obviously, so it almost feels like I'm sitting in one of those lifeboats looking back at the Titanic as she slowly sinks.

I’d rather be in the titanic 

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Just now, snowstormcanuck said:

NAM verbatim = biggest storm of the winter for Toronto.  We have more wiggle room with further SE shifts than with a NW bump, so it's fortunate that's the trend. 

Yeah se trend is your friend. You're in a very intriguing spot. GL!

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Just now, Snowstorms said:

00Z NAM with ~10" for Toronto. 

Let me enjoy this before we get robbed like Chicago. 

 

It would have to be a massive collapse to the SE for us to get whiffed.  Really it's been the NCEP guidance, and to a lesser extend the GEM/EURO, correcting to what the UKIE has shown all along (which has been a decent hit for us).  Honestly, like I previously implied, I'd be more worried about a bit of a correction back to the NW giving us mixing issues than a Harrisburg special.

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Out of the game here obviously, so it almost feels like I'm sitting in one of those lifeboats looking back at the Titanic as she slowly sinks.

The Carpathia is down here in N Central IN to pick up survivors :arrrg:

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1 minute ago, UMB WX said:

Yeah se trend is your friend. You're in a very intriguing spot. GL!

Thanks.

Believe me, I know what it's like to be sucker punched by the models.  Next one is yours. :drunk:

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7 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

It would have to be a massive collapse to the SE for us to get whiffed.  Really it's been the NCEP guidance, and to a lesser extend the GEM/EURO, correcting to what the UKIE has shown all along (which has been a decent hit for us).  Honestly, like I previously implied, I'd be more worried about a bit of a correction back to the NW giving us mixing issues than a Harrisburg special.

The NAM 3km literally parks the Low right over us. I'd be worried about being dry slotted near the end but nothing like the GHD event.

I agree. A slight shift NW is still doable but by a fraction at best. NAM 3km has the freezing line right along the Lake. UKIE has handled this event the best. 

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Freakin' amazingly trash models this winter. Just a couple of days ago, I thought Alek's 5.5 call was going to bust due to the best snows being in WI, while I was waiting on a participation trophy for back end reacharound flakes.

Tonight's 3km NAM bullseyes us with 7". Unbelievably bad. I feel bad for forecasters as every time the models pull this crap, they have to take the brunt of it from the public.

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11 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

It would have to be a massive collapse to the SE for us to get whiffed.  Really it's been the NCEP guidance, and to a lesser extend the GEM/EURO, correcting to what the UKIE has shown all along (which has been a decent hit for us).  Honestly, like I previously implied, I'd be more worried about a bit of a correction back to the NW giving us mixing issues than a Harrisburg special.

Yeah wouldn't take much of a speed up at all to frig things up either.  SE bleeding can only go so dam far right? One would have thought it would be over by now but with nothing connecting this is where we are.

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1 minute ago, IWXwx said:

Freakin' amazingly trash models this winter. Just a couple of days ago, I thought Alek's 5.5 call was going to bust due to the best snows being in WI, while I was waiting on a participation trophy for back end reacharound flakes.

Tonight's 3km NAM bullseyes us with 7". Unbelievably bad. I feel bad for forecasters as every time the models pull this crap, they have to take the brunt of it from the public.

The worst part is that our bullseyes are not even remotely locked in and we are within 2 days.

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9 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Freakin' amazingly trash models this winter. Just a couple of days ago, I thought Alek's 5.5 call was going to bust due to the best snows being in WI, while I was waiting on a participation trophy for back end reacharound flakes.

Tonight's 3km NAM bullseyes us with 7". Unbelievably bad. I feel bad for forecasters as every time the models pull this crap, they have to take the brunt of it from the public.

Yeah I...have no idea what to do lol!!

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Bill Marino with GRR posted an update about an hour ago... the bleed continues.
 

“I also adjusted the POP for Tuesday during the day. From the latest model runs I do not see much if any precipitation during the day time hours of Tuesday.

It seems to this forecaster that the storm on Wed may be father to the east as it now seems the upper wave on the southern stream will take a little longer to phase with the northern stream wave. We will have to see how this plays out. I do not plan to change any headlines.”

 

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Like Stebo said this system is barely inside 48 hours.  I think the "consistency" of the models showing substantial snow inside 120/96 and not letting up this time got everyone excited, plus the light at the end of the tunnel for this winter season is in sight.  I'd love to lock in this 00Z NAM in but my ass has been on fire all this season lol. 00Z runs we'll see if the trend continues, think there's a good chance to back some NW.  For posterity I'll take a sounding like this all day long...

nam4km_2020022500_042_40.34--85.84.png

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I will say the shift se wasnt as substantial this run and some models are coming in a tick juicier. 

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Its pretty crazy to think 2 days ago our news channel was calling for 8-10" in central WI. lol I'm glad you guys to the south finally got a storm. 

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2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

DVN hasn't updated their fb page in over 12hrs.  Last update still shows 8" for QC.  I guess that's one way to get around a bunch of angry posts from the public, just stay silent and hope they forget what you posted earlier lol.

They were like...

tenor.gif

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19 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I will say the shift se wasnt as substantial this run and some models are coming in a tick juicier. 

How much farther south and slower can the main wave really go from here?  Maybe its just the garbage GFS and NAM catching up. sheesh I would think models could have figured that wave out by now. Have to the think the bleeding has stopped there and we're at worst case something close to the 18z euro. 

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RGEM has a nice local lollipop.  Unfortunately some of this precip is going to be wasted on marginal temps during the daytime Tuesday.

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