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Chicago Storm

Mid-week potential of something somewhere

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Gonna be interesting to see if offices buy into the south trend by tomorrow morning. If not, I'm just not sure what they're thinking... The 18z Euro has nearly all the warning criteria snow south of the current WSWs.

 

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9 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I think GFS is northern outlier and Euro likely a south outlier. I'm thinking something in between, I feel like NAM is closest to that in between. Crazy how bad model guidance has been all winter

Ukie is the furthest south.

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12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I think GFS is northern outlier and Euro likely a south outlier. I'm thinking something in between, I feel like NAM is closest to that in between. Crazy how bad model guidance has been all winter

I thought the Ukie was the southern outlier?

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Does anyone even follow or believe anything that model shows? Lol

It has much better verification scores than the GFS and is only slightly worse than the Euro.

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2 minutes ago, madwx said:

It has much better verification scores than the GFS and is only slightly worse than the Euro.

To add to this, I believe that is the case for 500 mb heights.  Not sure how it compares in other aspects.  

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I guess I just don't follow it closely enough. I think anything would be better than goofus. Euro has its magical moments but definitely has struggled this winter. At this point I'm not sure what to believe 

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

To add to this, I believe that is the case for 500 mb heights.  Not sure how it compares in other aspects.  

Here is surface temps which shows a similar pattern.

58F040EA-B5B1-4F3D-9A96-D64CEDB6D644.png.d8e374e15ff28bd3ea5ec4a514f5a223.png

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If anything the volatility of these models would indicate NWS offices should issue winter advisories no sooner than 12 hrs out. For this event nothing sent out till tomorrow afternoon or evening for LOT.

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Does anyone even follow or believe anything that model shows? Lol

It has the 2nd best 500mb NH verification score, so yes.


.

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14 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

If anything the volatility of these models would indicate NWS offices should issue winter advisories no sooner than 12 hrs out. For this event nothing sent out till tomorrow afternoon or evening for LOT.

would you say you've been modeled consistently for 5"-10" for the last 48 hrs?

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5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


It has the 2nd best 500mb NH verification score, so yes.


.

Like I said, don't really follow it so my bad. It seems to be way too weak and south so not really giving it much faith compared to the rest of the model suite. Definitely eager to see if we see a reversal in 0z trends or if things hold from 12z runs

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6 minutes ago, Baum said:

would you say you've been modeled consistently for 5"-10" for the last 48 hrs?

Not by the Ukie. 1-2". A little more SE shift and weakening by 0Z Euro and your there. Also MKE area in the same boat.

Screenshot_20200223-190711_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Remember when having the euro in your camp within 30hrs wasn’t a “will we get snow at all?” but a “are ratios going to hold up? Should I plan on 12:1 or 16:1? Will I verify on the low or high end of my 8-12” forecast?”...

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19 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Not by the Ukie. 1-2". A little more SE shift and weakening by 0Z Euro and your there. Also MKE area in the same boat.

Screenshot_20200223-190711_Samsung Internet.jpg

if your so sure on the UK solution which is still an outlier, though a trend southeast has been apparent vs. a trend NW by all models yesterday than you certainly cannot discount the far north solution of the GFS which has been the most consistent. A consensus puts you at 5-10". I think your okay. That said, it's weather so it could crash and burn. If so, motor on...because today was a nice taste of spring, and I love that too.

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5 minutes ago, Baum said:

if your so sure on the UK solution which is still an outlier, though a trend southeast has been apparent vs. a trend NW by all models yesterday than you certainly cannot discount the far north solution of the GFS which has been the most consistent. A consensus puts you at 5-10". I think your okay. That said, it's weather so it could crash and burn. If so, motor on...because today was a nice taste of spring, and I love that too.

Can't discount the GFS and would reasonably expect models to slightly wobble back north by tomorrow evening. But this year seems to be the winter of SE weaker and lame so the Ukie represented that. Went for a walk today it was nice. Golf seems far off though.

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5 minutes ago, Baum said:

if your so sure on the UK solution which is still an outlier, though a trend southeast has been apparent vs. a trend NW by all models yesterday than you certainly cannot discount the far north solution of the GFS which has been the most consistent. A consensus puts you at 5-10". I think your okay. That said, it's weather so it could crash and burn. If so, motor on...because today was a nice taste of spring, and I love that too.

The uk has been just as consistent as the gfs...the irony is the two most consistent models are the northern and southern outlier.

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1 minute ago, Cary67 said:

Can't discount the GFS and would reasonably expect models to slightly wobble back north by tomorrow evening. But this year seems to be the winter of SE weaker and lame so the Ukie represented that. Went for a walk today it was nice. Golf seems far off though.

I feel you... For us this seems like the best shot of a biggie thus far this year... 24 hours will see where that wobble leads to the good snow...

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5 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Can't discount the GFS and would reasonably expect models to slightly wobble back north by tomorrow evening. But this year seems to be the winter of SE weaker and lame so the Ukie represented that. Went for a walk today it was nice. Golf seems far off though.

last two winters. Though, sometimes that's a positive.

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