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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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31 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Just saw a video from one of the high rise buildings in Atlanta with flakes mixed in to the rain. Pretty cool, but also kind of a kick in the face sitting here in the Mtns watching it rain lol

just saw on channel 5 some flakes mixing in with the rain there. not too surprising given the amount of bright banding. No flakes here even though i'm under it....but the drops have that "slop" sound to them. I do wonder if there could be a brief surprise changeover or good mixing  north of atlanta up near gainesville. Some 50 dbz showing up on composite. 

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imo, the northern upstate may wind up doing as well as  many in Eastern NC with this storm. Looks like we can pick up 1/2 to 3/4 of liquid over the next 4 hours and should be changing to snow with surface temps crashing in the next hour.

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Just now, burrel2 said:

imo, the northern upstate may wind up doing as well as  many in Eastern NC with this storm. Looks like we can pick up 1/2 to 3/4 of liquid over the next 4 hours and should be changing to snow with surface temps crashing in the next hour.

That's mighty optimistic. Not sure I agree.

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

imo, the northern upstate may wind up doing as well as  many in Eastern NC with this storm. Looks like we can pick up 1/2 to 3/4 of liquid over the next 4 hours and should be changing to snow with surface temps crashing in the next hour.

Ive dropped 6 in the last hour. Down to 37.6 now. 

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2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

imo, the northern upstate may wind up doing as well as  many in Eastern NC with this storm. Looks like we can pick up 1/2 to 3/4 of liquid over the next 4 hours and should be changing to snow with surface temps crashing in the next hour.

I'm not sure where you're going to manufacture crashing surface temps down there but good luck! Pays to be optimistic 

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It’s been 779 days since the last flake fell in myrtle beach.  HRRR looks like I’m gonna be up with the kids hoping to see some flakes falling around 5am.  Would be their first time seeing snow that they are old enough to remember, even if it doesn’t stick 

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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I'm not sure where you're going to manufacture crashing surface temps down there but good luck! Pays to be optimistic 

I sacrificed my goldfish to the weather gods. 

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1 minute ago, goldman75 said:

It’s been 779 days since the last flake fell in myrtle beach.  HRRR looks like I’m gonna be up with the kids hoping to see some flakes falling around 5am.  Would be their first time seeing snow that they are old enough to remember, even if it doesn’t stick 

Cheering for you! 

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4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I'm not sure where you're going to manufacture crashing surface temps down there but good luck! Pays to be optimistic 

It's dependent on rates. If we get 2 inch per hour rates it'll crash temps. Same for your location. 

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10 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Can someone post the 17z HRRR map

Still with three hours left on it to run, but very similar to the past 4-5 runs.

image.png.73800e9073b4f754ed4ae9c42bce4c8e.png

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Increasing for my area. That's good but I need the temps to drop. They were steady at 44 for about 1 1/2 hours. Just recently dropped back down to 43 after rising to 44 at noon.

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Sure hope you're right Burrel2 but I still just don't see it. I'm pulling for you to be right and me wrong. I don't know that the temps aloft are quite cold enough to do the trick.

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6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Starting to have concerns about dry air for RDU

No precip here so far, but obs thread has reports of flurries/sleet in Garner near Clayton...

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Just now, NCsandhills said:

No precip here so far, but obs thread has reports of flurries/sleet in Garner near Clayton...

Yeah we will see if it can eek its way in soon. I know there have been epic virga busts in Raleigh before.

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8 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

No, shows about a half inch more.

Thanks  I realized I misread

#%% mobile phone. 

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I don't think the surface is going to cooperate in time before the good moisture is gone IMBY. Shame, these snow rates are incredible but it's pure white rain.

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RAH is talking about a cut back:

Very few if any changes this morning. Looks like a later
start to the snow across the north as the precipitation has not
quite filled in across the north this morning. The longer these
areas remain precipitation free, the more temperatures will be
allowed to rise and the lower chances for significant snowfall
amounts. Generally, expect snow accumulation to largely hold off
until after 4 PM this afternoon, with increasing chances for snow
through the evening and early overnight. However, there is still a
good bit of uncertainty with respect to amounts.

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1 minute ago, eyewall said:

RAH is talking about a cut back:

Very few if any changes this morning. Looks like a later
start to the snow across the north as the precipitation has not
quite filled in across the north this morning. The longer these
areas remain precipitation free, the more temperatures will be
allowed to rise and the lower chances for significant snowfall
amounts. Generally, expect snow accumulation to largely hold off
until after 4 PM this afternoon, with increasing chances for snow
through the evening and early overnight. However, there is still a
good bit of uncertainty with respect to amounts.

They posted that around 11AM.  No big deal.  We ALWAYS have to overcome dry air around here before the snow gets going.  That's because our cold source is usually arctic (or near arctic) air that is very dry to start with.   

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Thinking 3 to 5 is still a good bet for raleigh. Don't see much yet that would alter the forecast. 

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