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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

Don't really buy the precip gap over western NC. THe majority of this system will be isentropic lift generated (aka GOM moisture overrunning cold air). The southwest mountains/foothills and NE Georgia generally do well in these setups. There will likely be some back end enhancement over the costal plain w/ some incoming PJ energy Thursday night, but that will be a small enhanced band most likely confined over NE NC. The majority of this will be a front end thump. Radar looks good as well. We are in a weak El-Nino and most systems lately have overperformed QPF wise. Good to keep ground moisture/recent trends in mind.

Hope you're right but modeling has been insistent on some type of downsloping element for McDowell northwest to Wilkes County. With the flow and orientation of the moisture its unusual to have a precip minimum here. If it was more west to east then yes

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3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Really you guys?  Come on. Stay on topic before time outs are issued   :angry:

 

Apologies

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8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Hope you're right but modeling has been insistent on some type of downsloping element for McDowell northwest to Wilkes County. With the flow and orientation of the moisture its unusual to have a precip minimum here. If it was more west to east then yes

Anything's possible. The situation is definitely not ideal for the mountains from a jackpot scenario. That said, given it's mostly overrunning and we're in an el-nino pattern, the models will likely be underdone there. The flow is WSW to ENE.

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The HRRR is increasing moisture each run it seems as we get closer to go time so its starting to align more with the Nam and other short range models 

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3 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Does HRRR and the RAP usually have a very warm bias?

Yes, especially the hrrr

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Just now, BIG FROSTY said:

Seems every model looks very anemic with moisture here in the N.Foothills! And even more pronounced as we get closer to start time.............

Agreed

 

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Well the UKMET also stepped back on precip totals and snow totals for western areas.. I'm guessing the euro will be pretty dry too

sn10_acc.us_ma (2).png

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23 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Well the UKMET also stepped back on precip totals and snow totals for western areas.. I'm guessing the euro will be pretty dry too

sn10_acc.us_ma (2).png

I did drop out of meteorology my freshman year but I can just about promise you that’s not going to verify in the Morganton Hickory area

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19 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Interestingly the UK has the jackpot set up in the Kinston area much like the GFS did. 

Yea sitting here at PGV with individual model maximums all around me. Some south some north some west......who knows.

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13 minutes ago, bess said:

Just look at all that moisture.

2DC6C962-6EAE-4E06-8ED4-C2CAA83337B3.png

CJ our local meteorologist said the newest model data had the moisture still coming down after midnight.

Earlier it ended by 7 or 8pm.

He said we have to keep an eye on this.

 

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42 minutes ago, bess said:

Just look at all that moisture.

2DC6C962-6EAE-4E06-8ED4-C2CAA83337B3.png

Wow, this field is impressive on the live radar. And it's already made it to BHM,  this thing will be coming in early for NEGA/Upstate. Imagine if we had the profile from 2/8! 

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