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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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I never said it was a final call but yeah the sleet concern is always a real one in central NC.

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16 minutes ago, SnowJoMoJo said:

Maybe model upgrades have fixed a lot of this, but maybe time to reflect on Cold Rain's thread from about 3 years ago...

My favorite line from the post " Pink areas on a p-type map indicate slightly colder rain than the green areas. "

 

 

I was going to repost this! Thank you for including it!

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Just now, FLweather said:

High sleet totals look possible for Northern SC and Southern NC.

With surface layer above freezing high sleet totals will not verify or help with accumulation, if sleet is the precip type. Takes a lot of sleet to accumulate and usually has to be below freezing for anything other than mulch accumulations. This will skew clown maps, however, in the weenie direction. My worry level about the ML's is increasing for the Triangle area and points SE but not folding due to one run of the NAM. Sticking with my calls for now! 

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22 hours ago, Avid6eek said:

Welcome, from Chesapeake, VA.  At this point in time I'm very happy to see the bulls eye 100-200 miles to my south.  :-)

 

w00t.  Never deny the NW trend. :-D

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6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I never said it was a final call but yeah the sleet concern is always a real one in central NC.

It matches well with my thinking at present. Being close to the rain or sleet or whatever form of non-accumulating wintry precip we want to call it will be nerve wracking but it is ALWAYS where the highest accumulations set up. When in doubt, go with Climo for where the mix sets up (Somewhere in Wake county) except in this case eastern sections will benefit from the LP once it gets cranking and I think it will benefit us in the Triangle as well as it pulls away. We just may waste a little extra precip. 

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Not that I really believe it's an implication of anything, more of just a note I'm making: If you look at hour one of the NAM and compare it to current radar for say Texas, since that's where part A of our storm will get going, there's a considerable amount more moisture around than even the NAM is showing. Again, just a note.

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One thing this run of the NAM showed was significant freezing rain(.6 qpf) down around Whiteville and Sampson County. 

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Hi Res Nam 

snku_acc.us_ma (30).png

Anyone else impressed with the consistency of the NAM over the last 2 days and with the 2.8 event? Rock solid. Some noise but overall it has been the most steadfast model again. It used to be a model from which I expected the consistency of Clemson basketball run to run...

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Folks were discounting the NAM yesterday but now taking it into consideration when modeling the warm nose.   I know it is typically pretty good with warm nose but this is also due to the fact it is really amping up the storm.  The warm nose is directly related to how strong it amps up that low.  If the NAM is overdone, then so is the warm nose.  
Plus, the warm nose will go away with this storm as it progresses.  It will not persist the entire time.

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44 minutes ago, Solak said:

JUST IN: We updated the snow potential a bit. We have an area of 2-3" possiblel totals including parts of the triangle.

No photo description available.
 
 
 

Splitting hairs here, but that’s not the map they have on their website.  Not hugely different, but different nonetheless.  

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Folks were discounting the NAM yesterday but now taking it into consideration when modeling the warm nose.   I know it is typically pretty good with warm nose but this is also due to the fact it is really amping up the storm.  The warm nose is directly related to how strong it amps up that low.  If the NAM is overdone, then so is the warm nose.  
Plus, the warm nose will go away with this storm as it progresses.  It will not persist the entire time.

Yeah, better to flip to sleet for a while and get good rates than be fringed. Obviously down towards SC is a different story.

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Folks were discounting the NAM yesterday but now taking it into consideration when modeling the warm nose.   I know it is typically pretty good with warm nose but this is also due to the fact it is really amping up the storm.  The warm nose is directly related to how strong it amps up that low.  If the NAM is overdone, then so is the warm nose.  
Plus, the warm nose will go away with this storm as it progresses.  It will not persist the entire time.

Spot on. It is the absolute best model for depicting a warm nose. That used to be the model's only use for me... One good thing about the system is it is heading more east. Large Miller A storms with a prevalent warm nose riding up the coastline do not drag down colder ML's until the precip has ended. The trajectory of this system being more east move whatever warm nose out and sets up a decent period of snow for all areas Triangle-East. At least that's how I see it as compared to normal situations where the warm nose seems to linger until only flurries are left...

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32 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Folks were discounting the NAM yesterday but now taking it into consideration when modeling the warm nose.   I know it is typically pretty good with warm nose but this is also due to the fact it is really amping up the storm.  The warm nose is directly related to how strong it amps up that low.  If the NAM is overdone, then so is the warm nose.  
Plus, the warm nose will go away with this storm as it progresses.  It will not persist the entire time.

Wouldn’t higher precip amounts lead to more cooling?

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2 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

Wouldn’t higher precip amounts lead to more cooling?

They could...  but a less amped storm wouldn't bring as much warming into the mid-levels either..  I'd prefer that version.

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2 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

Wouldn’t higher precip amounts lead to more cooling?

But also can lead to more of a warm nose with a more amped system

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

They could...  but a less amped storm wouldn't bring as much warming into the mid-levels either..  I'd prefer that version.

Thanks, 

Learning, these rules are about like calculus!

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Gonna come down to nowcasting for the northern upstate of SC. The HRRR and ARW both have my location's sounding going isothermal around 10am just as the heavy axis of precip moves in.  The HRRR keeps surface temps at 34-36 though which would be an issue, but I'm guessing it has it's typical bias at play here.

On the other hand, the 3km NAM has the warm nose holding strong until 1-3pm for the northern upstate. It shows surface temps at 32-33 however.

If, if.... somehow the HRRR and ARW thermal profile is right then the northern upstate could get a 4 to 6 inch past job tomorrow as the heaviest rates come through between 10:00am and 3:00pm.   If the 3km NAM is right, then we're going to see a lot of rain/white rain/sleet mix with a possible burst of moderate snow as the back edge swings through with little to no accumulations.

 

It's all comes down to that 800mb warm nose, (and possibly surface temps even if the warm nose is overcome).

I would be really nervous in the Raleigh area as it looks like the warm nose will most likely push in to that area during height of the storm.  Also I wouldn't bank on the precip outlasting the nose on the backside there.  Whoever stays just to north of the warm nose push in that region is going to get 6-10 inches. Whoever is just to the south of it is going to be extremely disappointed. My best guess is Southern Wake gets 1-3 inches of snow/sleet from the storm will the northern end of the county gets the jackpot.

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46 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Slowly but surely that lee side minimum is disappearing.  Like clockwork

It's still very visible on both the 12K and the 3K NAM models, though.  Especially from Caldwell County to the north and east.  Being in the extreme NW corner of Catawba County, that makes me a bit nervous.

4 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

Thanks, 

Learning, these rules are about like calculus!

Nah.  Calculus is much more straightforward.  :D

Weather prediction with high degrees of accuracy and pinpoint precision is still an unattainable goal in 2020.

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