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wdrag

Damaging wind ~10A-3P Fri Feb 7

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Hi,  

Many have been posting about wind problems in our forum area for the past 5 days and it looks like it should come to pass between roughly 10A-3P Friday Feb 7.

The combination of rapidly intensifying low pressure to a near record for our area in February, with the associated negative tilting short wave short wave passage followed by strong afternoon pressure rises and associated cold air advection should favor a period of  ~50MPH wind gusts for a short time in most of our area, conceivably well over 60 MPH in at least a few locations. This combined with somewhat soft ground for mid winter may lead not only to broken tree limbs/wires, power outages, but also a few uproots, especially with the weakened tree structure from the Dec 1-3 wet snow storm (nw NJ especially). 

I've checked IGW composite and while not a classic,  I would not be surprised at some sort of convectively induced gravity wave that ""if"" occurs, would modulate the flow and pop 50 MPH gusts into even the thermally inverted sounding north of the warm front (currently s of LI). 

This thread has been started because I think we're coming into a time when forum participants are going to be seeing lots of snow to rain opportunities between tomorrow afternoon and Valentines Day.  I wanted a place where we can just post the observed wind, wind damage reports for this uncommonly low pressure passage. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Will these winds mix down to the surface? 

I think so, it's gonna be near 60 tomorrow morning.

Very strong CAA as low passes through and good mixing with the sun trying to break out. I think the NWS is downplaying this with only 50mph max gusts 

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28 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

RAP valid at 18Z for JFK is close to what the UKMET has been showing (70-80MPH gusts on LI):

image.png.b338236bdb4e1aff2c0a863fa399a938.png

most of the okx cwa should be under a high wind warning 

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25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Will these winds mix down to the surface? 

absolutely. classic setup for it with those lapse rates as cold air surges in. I'd say the 68KT at the top of the boundary layer is a more isolated/extreme scenario, but I see no reason 50-60KT gusts won't occur on most of LI and 40-50KT in the city proper.

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Quote
*Damaging Wind Potential for E LI and SE CT Friday afternoon*

Upgraded to High Wind Warning for 25-35 mph sustained winds and
damaging gusts to 60 mph for Suffolk County and coastal SE CT
for Friday afternoon. This due to signal for a 2-4 hr period of
mean low-level winds of 50-55 kt in mixed layer and 60-65 kt
top of mixed layer between 18 and 22z, with favorable downward
momentum in wake of deepening shortwave/bombing low, rapidly
steepening lapse rates, strong pressure rises, and
unidirectional wind fields strengthening with height.

Elsewhere, wind advisory looks
sufficient, with peak winds gusts 50-55 mph, a low prob of 60
mph at this time. Strongest winds into early evening, but gusts
continue well into the night.

 

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

most of the okx cwa should be under a high wind warning 

Agree, shocked how much forecasts are underplaying this. 

People will be waking up to quite a surprise.

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2 hours ago, doncat said:

2 lowest pressures I've recorded are 28.40" with Sandy and 28.53" with Irene....Expecting to hit around 28.75" tomorrow.

what about the superstorm 1993 i'm positive it had a low pressure  like the ones you mentioned..

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30 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

what about the superstorm 1993 i'm positive it had a low pressure  like the ones you mentioned..

Yes how did I forget that storm...pressure here got to 28.50".

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Very strong wording on the wind potential from Mt. Holly. They mention sting-jet and gusts near hurricane force for coastal sections. 

Not good with wet soils and unfrozen ground. 

GFS continued to amp things up in latest run. Looks like sub 970 just north of the area.

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Convection along the cold front is producing some lightning and pea-sized hail in VA this morning. So far LWX is sampling 60-65 mph winds in and behind those cells W-SW of DC.

LWX.thumb.png.780043d8b036f2b7bb273e31ef82bc2d.png

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Also check out the gravity waves on WV imagery - tremendous support for severe turbulence with those due to shear w/ the strong jet. Not a good day to be flying, and if the winds end up verifying this afternoon, there will be major delays and cancellations at all the local airports.

WV_020719.thumb.png.b0faf25a2ca73877905881d2c7fd4a33.png

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Two Tornado warnings currently NW of Baltimore.

The northern-most warning is legit and is associated with the surface low. LWS sampling 80-90 mph winds and a possible debris ball.

LWX_low.thumb.png.abf471dc7222fd44523c7fc5aed6de11.png

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Tornado warning down by Kphl.

 

I don’t think that area has been under a winter storm warning this winter yet lol 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The warm sector where the high winds will develop is already into Philly. They jumped 8 degrees from 48 to 56 in just 30 minutes. Winds are now gusting close to 40 mph with pressure at 982 mb.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KPHL

Looks like it's quickly advancing north into the area now. S winds beginning to gust on the south shore, and the lowest pressure I can find is just under 978mb NW of PHL.

1443sfc.thumb.jpg.c1fe4263ce187c01baa17d7371d89743.jpg

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