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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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5 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

It was close imo. Surface wasn't exciting verbatim but h5 was real close to a possible hit. Wayyy past my bedtime.  See ya tomorrow 

It will screw us coasties over 

Horrible winter

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3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Oz EPS still gives a little hope for the period February 27- March 5 with two systems.  Can’t post maps anymore with this new .01MB limit.

Go to the upper right hand corner of your screen and click on your user name (Weather Will). Then click on the category attachments in the drop down. Brings you to the screen where you can delete previous attachments which will free up space to post more.

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5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Go to the upper right hand corner of your screen and click on your user name (Weather Will). Then click on the category attachments in the drop down. Brings you to the screen where you can delete previous attachments which will free up space to post more.

I told him what the issue was yesterday, but I guess I should have held his hand and walked him through it as you just did. You are much more patient than me. I am also very bitter. :D

Copy and paste works too. I do that most of the time, and I usually cant be bothered deleting attachments, although its much easier than it used to be.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I told him what the issue was yesterday, but I guess I should have held his hand and walked him through it as you just did. You are much more patient than me. I am also very bitter. :D

Copy and paste works too. I do that most of the time, and I usually cant be bothered deleting attachments, although its much easier than it used to be.

Thank you both.  Thought you meant on my computers!!!  I thought I was being punished for posting prob maps.

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The overnight runs were uninspiring to say the least.

The good news is general overall look on the EPS and the GEPS is more conducive to the possibility of getting the 500's to drive through or underneath us then what we were seeing several days ago. (GFS/GEFS are handling the 500's different so that is another story).

The bad news is that we are getting less and less separation with the front running SW and the NS dropping in behind it. The problem with that is two fold. First off this is not allowing the SW (and associated low) to progress eastward helping to knock down heights in the east. Second, we are now seeing all the focus on the surface low initiated by this front running shortwave instead of the possibility of a secondary trailing behind with the NS drop. In a nut shell, if we can't get that separation then everything is more then likely pooched.

As far as after the 500's pull through setting up the trough in the East? Not liking the look at this time for the possibility of any follow up energy to do any damage. 

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Oz EPS still gives a little hope for the period February 27- March 5 with two systems.  Can’t post maps anymore with this new .01MB limit.
Delete your images....from 3 months ago
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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6z GEFS for first week of March.  Perhaps the last chance still showing some life.

26CA8FA4-38EE-4E69-8A09-F6CFFD8476AF.png

You’ve been hard at this for the last month! Any luck yet?!

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Still looks like the periods to watch are February 27-28, and March 3-5. Long shots at best but from two weeks out I don’t remember a strong signal for the NC event that is occurring tomorrow.  We will need some luck. Party never got started but it is over in about 4 weeks so we track the crumbs that the weather gods have handed us this year.

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Lasts nights Gfs run really looked close at 500 .  Not many of its ensembles if any agreed but still lots of time .

0z

500hv.conus.png

500hv.conus.png

It was close. But if you notice we saw good separation between the front running wave and the NS running behind it instead of the front running wave being absorbed into the trailing NS. This allowed for better placement with the 500's and secondary low development on the dropping NS. That is the issue we are now seeing on the latest runs (less separation/absorption). Really not sure how we can make it work if that is the case. Probably be hoping for trailing energy after the 500's pull through at that point. Plenty of time to see that issue resolve itself though.

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

It was close. But if you notice we saw good separation between the front running wave and the NS running behind it instead of the front running wave being absorbed into the trailing NS. This allowed for better placement with the 500's and secondary low development on the dropping NS. That is the issue we are now seeing on the latest runs (less separation/absorption). Really not sure how we can make it work if that is the case. Probably be hoping for trailing energy after the 500's pull through at that point. Plenty of time to see that issue resolve itself though.

Agree with front running wave separation.  I also noticed on that run that the angle of the follow  up energy better suited us . It was diving in on more of a  southeast trajectory instead of digging in like a tick back in western Oklahoma like the 18z run and other runs . I'm sure the western ridge alignment at 0z had a hand as well. But hey ...at least we aren't tracking 55 and partly cloudy :)

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3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Oz EPS still gives a little hope for the period February 27- March 5 with two systems.  Can’t post maps anymore with this new .01MB limit.

There is no .01 mb limit.  Perhaps if you didn’t post 1 terabytes of maps without deleting your storage from time to time, you’d have more space? 

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

There is no .01 mb limit.  Perhaps if you didn’t post 1 terabytes of maps without deleting your storage from time to time, you’d have more space? 

Please explain this concept to my daughter as well.  She got a new phone before Xmas and came to me the other day complaining of low storage space.  i looked and the sheer number of guinea pig photos was only second to Weather Wills snow probability maps.

The hell i was gonna pay for more icloud storage 

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59 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

There is no .01 mb limit.  Perhaps if you didn’t post 1 terabytes of maps without deleting your storage from time to time, you’d have more space? 

But those snow probability maps are important dude. Can you up the limit to .02 mb?

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But those snow probability maps are important dude. Can you up the limit to .02 mb?

 

Maybe soon he can post hurricane landfall probability maps, we seriously need some excitement in these parts  !  If winter can't deliver maybe spring and the summer can.  I can see an Irene track this year. The Westward shifting strike zone should put the East Coast under pressure. 

Image result for hurricane cone of uncertainty

 

image.jpeg.d2e26c817114450e372b5f374e15f38a.jpeg

    

Irene_2011_rainfall.gif

 

 

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16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But those snow probability maps are important dude. Can you up the limit to .02 mb?

Don't hate on those snow probability maps, those are one of the few things y'all post that I can grasp, even if they are crap.  The rest of the stuff is for you big brain people lol.

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@showmethesnow things are trending somewhat better (minus the spacing issue) for next week...but it’s still a low probability threat. In a good year we likely wouldn’t even be tracking it. Lots of moving parts that need to play nice. After that, as expected, the look is degrading again. Gefs and geps totally lost the idea of any epo help. They reform the AK vortex Pac Ridge combo...yay.  Eps actually still looks ok into March but how much you wanna bet this is when the eps is wrong!  

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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Eps actually still looks ok into March but how much you wanna bet this is when the eps is wrong!  

Without looking at the EPS I am wondering about the EPO domain .  It has been off the mark several times this season when it forecasts a - EPO.  I am not sure though what it looks like in that area further done the line. 

And, it is really amazing how forecasts of a - AO and a - NAO at long leads transitions back to positive in the medium range, The SST structures and the back ground state will simply not allow a - AO or a - NAO. Any attempt is simply a model error in the long range, when that changes I have no idea.    

 

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Just now, frd said:

Without looking at the EPS I am wondering about the EPO domain .  It has been off the mark several times this season when it forecasts a - EPO.  I am not sure though what it looks like in that area further done the line. 

And, it is really amazing how forecasts of a - AO and a - NAO at long leads transitions back to positive in the medium range, The SST structures and the back ground state will simply not allow a - AO or a - NAO. Any attempt is simply a model error in the long range, when that changes I have no idea.    

 

this year is lost but we gotta make sure we dont go through this again next year.....i really hope we  are the end of this non blocking cycle

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4 minutes ago, frd said:

Without looking at the EPS I am wondering about the EPO domain .  It has been off the mark several times this season when it forecasts a - EPO.  I am not sure though what it looks like in that area further done the line. 

And, it is really amazing how forecasts of a - AO and a - NAO at long leads transitions back to positive in the medium range, The SST structures and the back ground state will simply not allow a - AO or a - NAO. Any attempt is simply a model error in the long range, when that changes I have no idea.    

 

So much for the QBO. It came in at -2.5 for January and it’s not helping one bit. 

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35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So much for the QBO. It came in at -2.5 for January and it’s not helping one bit. 

yep--you all  pros promised us blocking with a negative QBO this winter  and  look what happened:) 

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