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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Okay, I want names! Whom in the Mid-Atlantic has pissed off the Snow Gods? :fulltilt:

gfssnow.gif.cc28422f909a3b595895af3d4c6d3891.gif

Talk about salt in the wound. If that happens I am giving up this hobby. Chances are I will be taking up bowling again.

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4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@showmethesnow the gem just did exactly what I was envisioning above. Gfs wasn’t that far off either. It might be a viable idea. 

 

I think it is a very viable option as long as the NS drop behind it doesn't dump into the SW. We see that and with the height builds we see in the East it more then likely kills any chance of that lead SW being a player as the setup more then likely would get pooched. Actually have thought of quite a few scenarios since the models started moving away from dumping the NS into the SW and moving that eastward. But the odds of any particular one playing out will be dependent on exactly how far east (if in fact it does) and how deep a drop we see with that NS. 

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Definite move by the models to show the NS energy pulling through the Pac NW (day 4/5) to drop farther to the east vs. into the deep South West. Now that may change in future runs but the fact that we saw the models begin hinting at it around 7 days and the signal has only gotten much stronger is a good sign. This really opens up the options (much more snow friendly) for us vs. the alternative which was the SW dump. Now what it does afterwords is also key. Right now the models have that tracking this feature to our N and W. Not the best solution but one we can work with as it does open up the possibilities for any trailing energy. What we probably want to see is that energy/closed low?/500's tracking through or just south of our region. Not only does that put us into play with that feature but it in most likelihood sets up a favorable, potentially very favorable, setup for the period afterwords unlike what we would see with it moving into the Lakes/southern Canada. And it that regards (tracking through or south) the models have been steadily moving towards the possibility over the last couple of days. Now I am not predicting snow, all I am doing is presenting what IMO gives us the best odds to see snow and nothing more.

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Unrelated to weather, but perhaps I have been banned.  I can't upload maps anymore.  Something about file size.  Anyone tell me where to go for instructions or what to do?

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Unrelated to weather, but perhaps I have been banned.  I can't upload maps anymore.  Something about file size.  Anyone tell me where to go for instructions or what to do?

 

 

Your attachments folder is probably at 100%. Delete stuff.

Or...

Copy and paste. I do it all the time.

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The 15-day EPS snowfall mean for College Park is in the 1 to 1.5" category, its largest in several days. 

30 of the 51 members give measurable snow/sleet during that period

8 of the 51 members give measurable snow/sleet this week. 

 

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2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Unrelated to weather, but perhaps I have been banned.  I can't upload maps anymore.  Something about file size.  Anyone tell me where to go for instructions or what to do?

 

 

So right now your probability of posting the the snow probability maps is 0% :lol:

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36 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, noticed that as well.  Not holding out for anything, but it's all we got.  

Yeah that particular look we have seen too many times on the models this year...ain't buyin' it, lol

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6 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

That’s from 00z but it was a nice run

obviously the 12z is a fail because we havent had 2 good runs in a row all season

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8 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

That’s from 00z but it was a nice run

Ah...thanks.  Just assumed 12z was out already.

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I am starting to think that we will get a winter storm in the next 10-320  or so days...the first shall be last lol

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