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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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1 hour ago, Amped said:

Blocking looks transient.  That means the cold shot will be also. Doesn't even look like much of it gets into the NAO or AO domain.

There wont be any blocking this winter. Full stop. Any cold will absolutely be transient. This is about a temporary relaxation of the ++AO combined with a slightly better PAC, and needle threading. That's it. We got nothing else, but Spring.

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33 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

We realize you have  to personalize a response when no one spoke to you directly.

Reminds me of the Pied Piper JoeB or WxRisk  days where those guys felt omnipotent 

my script is the factual outcomes while you chase 15+ day fantasy pattern changes 

 

factual outcomes takes zero skill.  it's a weather board.  forecasts are made.  forecasts fail.  you, like everyone else, relies on computer models to an extent, and your theory that models haven't improved was already debunked by meteorologists who do this for a living.

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GFS is not damping out the day 5 shortwave as much this run. Maybe closer to a storm.

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9 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS is not damping out the day 5 shortwave as much this run. Maybe closer to a storm.

It’s been making a subtle comeback today.  Enough that I’m mildly slightly interested in keeping one eye kinda sorta on it maybe. It’s likely going to trend to where we just need one more slight improvement then collapse into total fail. Ask Ji how that works.   

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22 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

We realize you have  to personalize a response when no one spoke to you directly.

Reminds me of the Pied Piper JoeB or WxRisk  days where those guys felt omnipotent 

my script is the factual outcomes while you chase 15+ day fantasy pattern changes 

 

Why don’t you complain a little more. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s been making a subtle comeback today.  Enough that I’m mildly slightly interested in keeping one eye kinda sorta on it maybe. It’s likely going to trend to where we just need one more slight improvement then collapse into total fail. Ask Ji how that works.   

Seems to be the trend this year  Snow doesn't want to come anywhere near the MA. We can't even get a close call this year.

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6 minutes ago, Amped said:

Seems to be the trend this year  Snow doesn't want to come anywhere near the MA. We can't even get a close call this year.

Most close calls happen in a decent pattern. Good patterns even are littered with near miss fails. We haven’t had anything close to a good pattern so nothing close to a near miss either. 

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31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

There wont be any blocking this winter. Full stop. Any cold will absolutely be transient. This is about a temporary relaxation in the ++AO combined with a slightly better PAC, and needle threading. That's it. We got nothing else, but Spring.

Your bonus is in the mail. 

11 minutes ago, Amped said:

Seems to be the trend this year  Snow doesn't want to come anywhere near the MA. We can't even get a close call this year.

For what it’s worth, this has been the case for most of the east coast. Nova Scotia to the upstate NY snowbelts are struggling. NNE and Rochester have really been the only places doing well, and even there it’s been relative nickels and dimes. I can’t even find chasable events inside a thousand miles lol. Really rough winter. Gotta hope March is a winter month again. 

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GFS really confused about what it wants to do with the lead shortwave in the day 8 system. Ends up stalling over Iowa for 36hrs. We get some flurries

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6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This beast is relentless.

1583236800-pCzmeYTE9iw.png

 

Conflicting signals for spring . We are in a new base state, and to a degree the outcomes for the spring might be surprising, for that matter maybe even the early summer as well.

This record +AO and relentless powerful vortex shows no sign in weakening.  Another record  + push may occur shortly with the AO.   Fascinating weather in terms of extremes at the HL.  The 12 to 18 month repeating pattern of hyper jet, Pac ridge and little winter blocking continues. 

The remarkable seasonal associations of using both the the +PNA and the -AO to forecast snowfall so far have been flawless. Never even have to look at a model when you have such an extreme  +AO , and such a long duration - PNA combined with a  very poor NAM state and little to any - NAO episodes.   

 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It will be transient. We’re just looking for a shot. We probably only get one chance. The first system to eject from the west behind the likely cutter will be the only real chance. After it probably breaks down again.  

One chance is better than 0.  We will need some luck without other indices helping.  End of February, first few days of March is our chance.

2CD251C5-0BB2-4BAE-8A5D-C43992F62ED0.png

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24 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS really confused about what it wants to do with the lead shortwave in the day 8 system. Ends up stalling over Iowa for 36hrs. We get some flurries

 Bit more then flurries verbatim but yea that huge sw dump behind it just kind of lassos it in and absorbs it. Some more separation would have worked 

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It will be salt in the wounds if we got the pattern we needed too late...but the fear spring gets ruined by a -NAO is always overblown. A -NAO can certainly make March chilly but by the time we get to April there is no way we’re getting more than a rare day or two that’s actually cold. It won’t rain everyday...and when it’s Sunny it’s almost guaranteed to at least be ~50 degrees.  It will just delay summer like temps until May/June instead of years where we jump right to upper 70s and 80s in April. 

So you are saying April and May will be like DJF... ok. 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

A -NAO can certainly make March chilly but by the time we get to April there is no way we’re getting more than a rare day or two that’s actually cold. It won’t rain everyday...and when it’s Sunny it’s almost guaranteed to at least be ~50 degrees.  It will just delay summer like temps until May/June instead of years where we jump right to upper 70s and 80s in April. 

idk about that- the first half of April can be quite chilly if it wants too (2018 and 2007 come to mind).

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1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

idk about that- the first half of April can be quite chilly if it wants too (2018 and 2007 come to mind).

Yea...2018 I recorded 4 separate days with frozen.  April 2,7,9,10

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7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

meh

1582351200-XsBBmqUnLs8.png

 

its not even meh...its like zero chance

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2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

idk about that- the first half of April can be quite chilly if it wants too (2018 and 2007 come to mind).

At IAD April 2018 had 

2 days in the 80s

6 days in the 70s

10 days in the 60s

10 days in the 50s

2 days in the 40s. 

2007 

6 days in the 80s

5 days in the 70s

3 days in the 60s

9 days in the 50s

7 days in the 40s

How did we ever survive those arctic months!?

 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

At IAD April 2018 had 

2 days in the 80s

6 days in the 70s

10 days in the 60s

10 days in the 50s

2 days in the 40s. 

2007 

6 days in the 80s

5 days in the 70s

3 days in the 60s

9 days in the 50s

7 days in the 40s

How did we ever survive those arctic months!?

 

Wow...They must have been on the warm side of the front on the first 10 days of April 2018:lol:

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Wow...They must have been on the warm side of the front on the first 10 days of April 2018:lol:

No they recorded a T of frozen twice that week. But also hit 70 one day and were in the 50s a few others. Up here it can be a little chilly (but I don’t mind a sunny 47 degree day at all) but outside the higher elevations in April unless it’s precipitating or a crazy rare anomalous arctic airmass that’s unlikely to last more than a day or two...it gets close to 50 from the sun angle. And a 50 degree sunny day in April feels great imo. Cold in the spring is overblown imo. 

ETA:  it can be chilly when it’s raining but who cares. I wouldn’t be out in the rain anyways. 

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No they recorded a T of frozen twice that week. But also hit 80 one ear and were in the 50s a few others. Up here it can be a little chilly (but I don’t mind a sunny 47 degree day at all) but outside the higher elevations in April unless it’s precipitating it a crazy rare anomalous arctic airmass that’s unlikely to last more than a day or two...it gets close to 50 from the sun angle. And a 50 degree sunny day in April feels great imo. Cold in the spring is overblown imo. 

I agree ...50 with sun in April is pretty decent.  Im a construction worker and have worked in highs of 10 -15 degrees o plenty thru the years.  Anything above 25 or so is gravy .Yea...I was half messing around but I know for a fact it was BN the first 10 days or so in 2018 here with a couple 30s highs and several low  mid 40s . 

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53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

At IAD April 2018 had 

2 days in the 80s

6 days in the 70s

10 days in the 60s

10 days in the 50s

2 days in the 40s. 

2007 

6 days in the 80s

5 days in the 70s

3 days in the 60s

9 days in the 50s

7 days in the 40s

How did we ever survive those arctic months!?

 

I noticed you used the entire month, instead of just the first half like my post stated...

BWI had five straight days in April 2007 that never got out of the 40's (and also had accumulating snow). I had snow falling on both 4/7/18 and 4/9/18 and accumulating on 4/9/16. 40's in April is cold to me- that's our average DJF high. The first half of April can be a winter month- I could fill the entire page up with examples.

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CMC ninjas a cutoff low and coastal, almost gets us with some light snow. Decent hit for SE VA and NC.

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