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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs follows the EPS d10+ and is pretty weenieish. Now both globals show promise. We've been waiting for PD3 for 17 years. Can't rule it out yet. 

 

I also thought the gefs looked much better than 12z for the weekend deal. Westminster death band now showing. Too bad psu is going to miss this event. I suppose 2-3' in Jackson is a little better than our 2-3" so maybe he doesnt care

IasvoOz.png

You said 3-6” earlier lol

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You said 3-6” earlier lol

Yea, if everything works right. If I had to guess right now I'd say 1-3" west of 95. There's potential for 3-6 or even more but we are who we think we are. 

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18z GEFS.  Best probability map thru Day 16 in forever.  Highest mean also.

8A8AC2B7-99DF-4623-BF39-E8002D252EE8.png

0CCFB2EF-693C-497E-B2CF-51B3EC37F769.png

That’s different...its going to be a razor edge between places that get dumped and places that are mostly spring the next few weeks. Some guidance suggesting we could right on that line. 

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, if everything works right. If I had to guess right now I'd say 1-3" west of 95. There's potential for 3-6 or even more but we are who we think we are. 

"And we let them off the hook"

Dennis Green

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Just now, Chris78 said:

"And we let them off the hook"

Dennis Green

Instead of "playoffs?  PLAYOFFS?"

"Snow?  SNOW?!!??!!"

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s different...its going to be a razor edge between places that get dumped and places that are mostly spring the next few weeks. Some guidance suggesting we could right on that line. 

We somehow manage to get lucky and get that battle zone just to our south and it could be fun.

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15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs follows the EPS d10+ and is pretty weenieish. Now both globals show promise. We've been waiting for PD3 for 17 years. Can't rule it out yet. 

 

I also thought the gefs looked much better than 12z for the weekend deal. Westminster death band now showing. Too bad psu is going to miss this event. I suppose 2-3' in Jackson is a little better than our 2-3" so maybe he doesnt care

IasvoOz.png

OMG. PD2 was in 2003!!! I remember it well because I was pregnant and sick most of that week. It sucked, but it helped that FCPS closed all week and I saved up for maternity leave!  That 16 1/2 year old baby is getting her license this week!   

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6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18z EURO....here comes Dr. No...much weaker surface reflection so far

AE9E08B5-1080-4C01-B373-E88A1656C309.png

Could be simply slowing it down. I think that would be a good thing. Seems to me the euro was quicker than most of the other guidance.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Could be simply slowing it down. I think that would be a good thing. Seems to me the euro was quicker than most of the other guidance.

Hope that is correct....waiting for EPS.

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13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Could be simply slowing it down. I think that would be a good thing. Seems to me the euro was quicker than most of the other guidance.

Shortwave is flatter with a bit more confluence above us. Extrapolation wouldn't be fun but it doesn't really matter yet. We still in the praying the shortwave doesn't go poof mode. I doubt we get full consensus until inside of 72 hours. Flow is ripping across the US. Impossible for ops to get fine details right

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Shortwave is flatter with a bit more confluence above us. Extrapolation wouldn't be fun but it doesn't really matter yet. We still in the praying the shortwave doesn't go poof mode. I doubt we get full consensus until inside of 72 hours. Flow is ripping across the US. Impossible for ops to get fine details right

Hi Bob. Can you make any sense out of this tweet from Dr. Butler? 

Screenshot_20200204-175232_Twitter.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Hi Bob. Can you make any sense out of this tweet from Dr. Butler? 

 

I don't track strat stuff and don't know enough about the topic to explain anything. The correlation between the strat and troposphere is really difficult because it only matters sometimes and not others.

The only indicator i use for the strat is that if people are talking about it often it means winter is going terribly wrong. 100% accuracy with that indicator. 

When there is no hope in modeland for the troposphere some people focus on the strat while smoking the hopium pipe. Lol. Nah, that's mean because there are a number of amazing weatherheads who really know their stuff. After the last 5 years Judah Cohen is no longer one of them. Lol. Ok, that was funny. 

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I don't track strat stuff and don't know enough about the topic to explain anything. The correlation between the strat and troposphere is really difficult because it only matters sometimes and not others.
The only indicator i use for the strat is that if people are talking about it often it means winter is going terribly wrong. 100% accuracy with that indicator. 
When there is no hope in modeland for the troposphere some people focus on the strat while smoking the hopium pipe. Lol. Nah, that's mean because there are a number of amazing weatherheads who really know their stuff. After the last 5 years Judah Cohen is no longer one of them. Lol. Ok, that was funny. 

Doesn’t it mean that it’s possible the +AO is synced with the strat warming and maybe it will snap back and allow more favorable conditions late in winter?

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7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS weak sauce.  Hopefully, just a blip.

A9BF78DC-8FBD-4F4E-8849-7779932136E0.png

03394A8A-BC25-4F8F-B9FA-8D95823C5A52.png

 

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS weak sauce.  Hopefully, just a blip.

A9BF78DC-8FBD-4F4E-8849-7779932136E0.png

03394A8A-BC25-4F8F-B9FA-8D95823C5A52.png

Still there not sweating run to run

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16 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS weak sauce.  Hopefully, just a blip.

A9BF78DC-8FBD-4F4E-8849-7779932136E0.png

03394A8A-BC25-4F8F-B9FA-8D95823C5A52.png

Or maybe it was never really real to begin with.....

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