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George BM

February Banter 2020

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So sick of all this talk about this snowless February being some stunning occurrence and signs that things have changed. 

At BWI, they have recorded 33 February's with less than an inch of total snow since records have been kept. Spread out all over the years. Including the most depressing period from 1949-1953 with 4 consecutive February's with less than an inch. 

Yes, it sucks, but it's part of the game in this region. It's not strange or unusual. 

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For those who were not aware, they certainly should be after this winter. A persistent +AO is death to snow chances in our region.

Only way to somewhat mitigate it is a persistent and strong EPO ridge.

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10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

For those who were not aware, they certainly should be after this winter. A persistent +AO is death to snow chances in our region.

Only way to somewhat mitigate it is a persistent and strong EPO ridge.

Very true...also this level of +AO (record setting) is impossible to overcome on a larger seasonal scale (other than a fluke event) because to get this strong a AO it’s very unlikely we get the epo ridge needed. A strong east based epo ridge naturally reduces the AO value some because it enchroaches in that domain some. Plus this strong a PV will strengthen the zonal winds around it blunting attempts at any ridging either in the epo or NAO domain.  So while we can sometimes overcome a +AO in a year like 2015 with a monster epo it’s probably not possible to overcome this level of consistently 3+ stdv AO.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Very true...also this level of +AO (record setting) is impossible to overcome on a larger seasonal scale (other than a fluke event) because to get this strong a AO it’s very unlikely we get the epo ridge needed. A strong east based epo ridge naturally reduces the AO value some because it enchroaches in that domain some. Plus this strong a PV will strengthen the zonal winds around it blunting attempts at any ridging either in the epo or NAO domain.  So while we can sometimes overcome a +AO in a year like 2015 with a monster epo it’s probably not possible to overcome this level of consistently 3+ stdv AO.  

Yeah this winter the SPV has been a consolidated  monster, and it has coupled down to the troposphere. Not much is going to overcome that. Maybe perfect forcing in the Pac that produces a persistent PNA ridge. We would have a fighting chance if that were the case. Not so this winter. Not even close.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

@psuhoffman

Outside of something transient/bootleg, are there any cases where there was a sustained -NAO while the AO was persistently positive? I would think not, or very rarely.

Not to this level. There are some examples of weakly +AO regimes with a -NAO but it’s nearly impossible to get a -NAO with this strong a PV/AO for the same reason you can’t get a favorable epo in this regime. The tightening strengthened flow around such a strong PV won’t allow ridging to survive long if at all in the NAO or epo domains. The strong flow around the PV will obliterate attempts to ridge there. But also the fact that strong ridging in the NAO domain would likely knock down the AO value some. 

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10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah this winter the SPV has been a consolidated  monster, and it has coupled down to the troposphere. Not much is going to overcome that. Maybe perfect forcing in the Pac that produces a persistent PNA ridge. We would have a fighting chance if that were the case. Not so this winter. Not even close.

That would help but there is a strong correlation between the unfavorable RNA pac pattern and a +AO so I think there is some connection beteeen the 2. There are some examples of a -AO with this pac but it’s very rare and most of those examples were during the extreme blocking regime that dominated between 1956-1972.  Outside that period almost every example of this pac pattern featured a very +AO also. 

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1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

So sick of all this talk about this snowless February being some stunning occurrence and signs that things have changed. 

At BWI, they have recorded 33 February's with less than an inch of total snow since records have been kept. Spread out all over the years. Including the most depressing period from 1949-1953 with 4 consecutive February's with less than an inch. 

Yes, it sucks, but it's part of the game in this region. It's not strange or unusual. 

Eh...in isolation that’s probably fair. But look at the frequency of sub 10” snowfall winters in Baltimore over the ~140 years of records. They were pretty rare up until the 80s with only a handful ever. WAY more common since. Of course we’ve also had lots of boom years in comparison. But things have certainly changed in the last 30-40 years.

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17 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its here-

That was the winter Boston had over 100", much of it coming in Feb.

That was indeed a classic rant post...bravo @Jebman!  I remember that post well from the time.  If ever AmWx could give some kind of literary award for top posts, this would win hands down!

Oh, and yeah, that was the year we got screwed for much of the winter.  Then things turned around and lined up right for us over the next 3-4 weeks, and we did really well in that time.

 

16 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If we’re not having fun one way or another during the winter, we’re doing it wrong.

Very true!  I had actually forgotten @Jebman posted that in Panic Room that year (though I did read it at the time)!  Back in the early days of the Room, when you didn't have all the fine amenities, waiters to serve you drinks, dance floors, etc.!!

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See you tomorrow after we both lost lol
Reardin has to go. Awful team...get a real coach before playoffs start

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6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That would help but there is a strong correlation between the unfavorable RNA pac pattern and a +AO so I think there is some connection beteeen the 2. There are some examples of a -AO with this pac but it’s very rare and most of those examples were during the extreme blocking regime that dominated between 1956-1972.  Outside that period almost every example of this pac pattern featured a very +AO also. 

Things are getting out of hand.  I just saw reports on the news that the +AO was sighted mugging little old ladies in Philly and stealing ice out of people's freezers.

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1 hour ago, Ji said:
2 hours ago, yoda said:
See you tomorrow after we both lost lol

Reardin has to go. Awful team...get a real coach before playoffs start

If they dont start playing better they wont have to worry about the playoffs. The metro division is crazy good. 

Sounds crazy but  theres only 7 points separating the caps from an early off season.

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Mount Holly Snippet-

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overall, our pattern of warm, wet, cold, dry continues this week.

Yup. The beat goes on. Although the cold part is debatable.

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15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Mount Holly Snippet-

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overall, our pattern of warm, wet, cold, dry continues this week.

Yup. The beat goes on. Although the cold part is debatable.

So you're saying don't bother looking at today's runs? 

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LOL, having the top 3rd snowless winter on record is not at all "how we roll" nor is having the least amount of snow in a 4 years period. Its record breaking. There is no other way to slice it. You guys are strange and skew yourself toward the negative. If we had 30 inches this season, you'd say its historic. So we can also be comfortable calling a season with less than an inch historic.

 

 

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this winter has been rare.  no real debate needed there.  however, it's not the first time, nor will it be the last.  i certainly remember 97/98 being a joke.  imo, this winter fits the vibe of the last 2 years which has been anomalous in general with the epic 2018 record-breaking rains and the 60+ 90 degree days this summer (though i don't recall too many extremely hot days except for one which i chose to bike in...that was brutal and not my best decision).  long story short, i'd wait until this time next year to get too carried away with analysis paralysis.

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Yeah, this happened once before 23 years ago. That's like, a long time. Then again 50 years ago. That isn't "run of the mill" by any means.

People definitely downplay our climo here.

Psu spent the entire winter talking horrible patterns and our climo dictating this being normal and it literally snowed up to 5 inches 300-400 miles south of us. In an area that averages, what? a half an inch a year?

Climo?

 

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17 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

That was indeed a classic rant post...bravo @Jebman!  I remember that post well from the time.  If ever AmWx could give some kind of literary award for top posts, this would win hands down!

Oh, and yeah, that was the year we got screwed for much of the winter.  Then things turned around and lined up right for us over the next 3-4 weeks, and we did really well in that time.

 

Very true!  I had actually forgotten @Jebman posted that in Panic Room that year (though I did read it at the time)!  Back in the early days of the Room, when you didn't have all the fine amenities, waiters to serve you drinks, dance floors, etc.!!

That post is what caused the winter to turn around and suddenly work out for most people for 3-4 weeks. No doubt!

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