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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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10 minutes ago, dWave said:

High of 63, now 58. but I see those 40s in southern queens, SI etc.

your typical february sea breeze

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8 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

I think the Australia situation was one where people weren't paying attention or connecting the dots in retrospect.  I don't think a lot of people, at least here in the states anyway, look that closely at Australia to see whether the rainy season advancement was delayed or not.  Once it was clear that was going to happen and solar radiation was going to be much higher than usual at a time when the IOD was collapsing, in retrospect that was a big flag that we should have seen coming.  Even as someone who had a mild winter forecasted, I wasn't nearly warm enough and I think it's because I was too slow to the draw on recognizing that piece and wave train alteration accordingly.

The large area of 90+ degree SSTs north of Australia with convection firing over it back in November should have been a huge red flag that the entire global heat budget and wavetrain forcing was going to get altered in a very big way. The same thing happened back in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño, when ENSO region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November and certain people were still using 57-58, 02-03, and 09-10 as “analogs” and forecasting a very cold and snowy winter in the east because the super nino was more “west-based” than 97-98.....

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The large area of 90+ degree SSTs north of Australia with convection firing over it back in November should have been a huge red flag that the entire global heat budget and wavetrain forcing was going to get altered in a very big way. The same thing happened back in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño, when ENSO region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November and certain people were still using 57-58, 02-03, and 09-10 as “analogs” and forecasting a very cold and snowy winter in the east because the super nino was more “west-based” than 97-98.....

Then the PV strengthening in Jan (after showing some signs of splitting in Dec) and becoming record strength sealed our fate with the crazy ++++AO and +NAO.   In terms of sensible weather it was like 01-02 and 97-98 blended together.

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Good news for snow lovers on the board..planning on moving my snowthrower to the back corner of the garage this week for the summer ..which means it'll probably snow again this winter..

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Tomorrow and Wednesday will remain unseasonably mild, though nowhere near as warm as today was. Afterward, cooler air will arrive. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was +7.25 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.667.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 3, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February.

On February 23, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.986 (RMM). The February 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.818.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 85% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 40.0°.

Since 1869, New York City has had nine prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in February. Seven (78%) of those cases occurred in 1990 or later and four (44%) occurred in 2000 or later.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

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1 hour ago, tomcatct said:

Good news for snow lovers on the board..planning on moving my snowthrower to the back corner of the garage this week for the summer ..which means it'll probably snow again this winter..

I'm thinking of moving all my stuff back to the shed-takes up room in the garage and it's just collecting dust at this point.  

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EURO WEEKLIES continue to Burn the Fern at about +4 for the next 6 week average.

At this rate we'll have to have Walter Cronkite interrupt AS THE WORLD BURNS by saying:   GW fired three shots at the Earth today as it revolved around the sun.     First reports say the wounds to the Earth may have been fatal.  

 

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11 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Then the PV strengthening in Jan (after showing some signs of splitting in Dec) and becoming record strength sealed our fate with the crazy ++++AO and +NAO.   

The signs definitely were there at the end of November that we were in big trouble, they just didn’t become really glaring until mid-December when it was blatantly obvious that we were pulling onto a road to nowhere

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With the very early start to the growing season (3+ weeks early) in the Mid-Atlantic/South I think there could be a destructive freeze in late March or early April if the AO flips by then. 

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The last 5 days of February are averaging 41.5degs., or 3.5degs. AN.

Month to date is +5.4[40.3].        February should end near  +5.3[40.8], or 4th. Place.

The 06Z, GFS is averaging 42degs., or 2.5degs. AN over the first 12 days of March with 70's possible near March 05.         There is a slight advertisement for some snow (TRACE) during the four day cold period of 2/28---3/02.

48* here at 6am.       47* at 7am.           49* by Noon, was 50* briefly.         52* by 2pm.        49* by 4pm.

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This was the warmest 12-22 to 2-24 period on record at 40.1 degrees in NYC. It was also the 5th lowest snowfall total at 2.3”. Last year over this period was 10th lowest at 3.6”.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Dec 22 to Feb 24
Missing Count
1 2020-02-24 40.1 0
2 1932-02-24 39.8 0
3 2006-02-24 39.6 0
4 2017-02-24 39.5 0
5 2012-02-24 39.3 0
- 1998-02-24 39.3 0
6 2002-02-24 39.2 0
7 1990-02-24 38.8 0
8 1937-02-24 38.7 0
9 1933-02-24 38.6 0
10 1950-02-24 38.5 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Dec 22 to Feb 24
Missing Count
1 1998-02-24 0.5 0
2 1919-02-24 0.8 0
3 1890-02-24 1.0 0
4 1959-02-24 1.9 0
5 2020-02-24 2.3 0
6 1990-02-24 2.4 0
7 1992-02-24 2.5 0
8 1973-02-24 2.6 0
- 1932-02-24 2.6 0
9 2002-02-24 3.5 0
10 2019-02-24 3.6 0
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Morning thoughts...

1. The CFSv2 continues its evolution toward a warmer outlook for March as it moves deeper into its skillful range.

2. As of 8 am, Atlanta has received 18.59" precipitation this year. Only 1883 (19.04") and 1936 (18.80") had more through February 25. Atlanta's trace of snow this winter also exceeds last winter's figure of 0.0".

3. Over the next 72 hours, Caribou will reach and then exceed 100" seasonal snowfall for the 4th consecutive winter.

4. With a 51° high temperature earlier today, New York City remains on track for its 3rd February in the last 4 years with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above.

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2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I can’t find the article now. But I saw a headline the other day that the polar vortex has kept winter out of the eastern US

 

so what exactly is happening? Just a weird winter pattern? 

Is this the article to which you were referring?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/02/19/polar-vortex-is-approaching-record-strength-thats-not-scary-thing/

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7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

With the very early start to the growing season (3+ weeks early) in the Mid-Atlantic/South I think there could be a destructive freeze in late March or early April if the AO flips by then. 

Not much cold air though even if it did flip.    I think this ends up being a 2002, 2012 style spring-warm and dry with a mainly zonal flow.

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16 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I can’t find the article now. But I saw a headline the other day that the polar vortex has kept winter out of the eastern US

 

so what exactly is happening? Just a weird winter pattern? 

seems like it happens every 10 yrs or so, 2001 and 2011 featured an exceptionally strong PV over the pole which kept the cold air locked up there and Alaska.

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

seems like it happens every 10 yrs or so, 2001 and 2011 featured an exceptionally strong PV over the pole which kept the cold air locked up there and Alaska.

The Met Office seasonal model did a nice job picking up on the winter pattern back in the fall.

 

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30 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I can’t find the article now. But I saw a headline the other day that the polar vortex has kept winter out of the eastern US

 

so what exactly is happening? Just a weird winter pattern? 

The Polar Vortex gained strength in December then coupled with atmosphere in January. This means all the cold stays locked up by the pole with no way to get in into the conus. That along with a unfavorable mjo (stuck in 5/6) was the nail in the this winters coffin. 

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Met Office seasonal model did a nice job picking up on the winter pattern back in the fall.

 

Yep, the seasonal models did a great job this winter. They made up for the 2018-2019 blocking -nao fail. 

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36 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Absolutely! That’s why the weeklies kept showing a good pattern weeks 3-6. The ssw didn’t couple either. 

Yeah, this was the second winter in a row that  an area of record SST’s somewhere  west to date line had a huge impact.

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16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The large area of 90+ degree SSTs north of Australia with convection firing over it back in November should have been a huge red flag that the entire global heat budget and wavetrain forcing was going to get altered in a very big way. The same thing happened back in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño, when ENSO region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November and certain people were still using 57-58, 02-03, and 09-10 as “analogs” and forecasting a very cold and snowy winter in the east because the super nino was more “west-based” than 97-98.....

In fairness 2016 ended up somewhat in between.  After the December into early Jan torch the rest of winter there was significantly more cold available than in 98. There were numerous additional snow opportunities with cold around after the HECS in Feb and March but they failed to come together.  There were several perfect wave passes where the system just failed to amplify. 98 simply lacked any cold wall to wall. 2016 has some characteristics of both and with some more luck could have been even snowier in the mid Atlantic. 

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8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

In fairness 2016 ended up somewhat in between.  After the December into early Jan torch the rest of winter there was significantly more cold available than in 98. There were numerous additional snow opportunities with cold around after the HECS in Feb and March but they failed to come together.  There were several perfect wave passes where the system just failed to amplify. 98 simply lacked any cold wall to wall. 2016 has some characteristics of both and with some more luck could have been even snowier in the mid Atlantic. 

Not entirely true. February 2016 ended up being about 2° above normal and March 2016 ended up being the 4th warmest March on record. A horrible winter overall, with one historic storm for NYC (28-31 inches) and close by burbs (we in the North land got screwed by that one) that melted in most places in several days. That's not my idea of winter.

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