• Member Statistics

    15,777
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
Rtd208

February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

Recommended Posts

28 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Nothing I can do about it. 

Sorta like national/international politics on a weather stage. As always ......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Milder air will return starting tomorrow. As a result, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +10.71 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.837. That surpassed the previous daily record of +4.399 from 2008.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 29, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February.

On February 20, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.077 (RMM). The February 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.640.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 75% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, HailMan06 said:

Cold at hr 348 on the GFS. When have we seen that before? :whistle:

True that, but the GFS is on a roll it picked up on the last two days from far out and also next weekends cold which has ECM support.

 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, HailMan06 said:

Cold at hr 348 on the GFS. When have we seen that before? :whistle:

Did someone really just post the 348 hr op GFS? Lmfaooo 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The last 8 days of February are averaging 42.5degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +4.8[39.4].       February should end near  +4.9[40.2], or 5th. Place.

The March cooldown now consists of five days in the 60's!!!.      I'll calculate the damage when I recover.       OK, the (06Z, GFS) is averaging 47degs. for the first 9 days of March, or about 8 or 9 degrees AN.

31* here at 6am.      32* by 8am.        41* by Noon.          47* by 2pm.       50* at 3pm.        52* at 4pm.      47* by 6pm.       43* by 11pm.

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First time that several of our stations don’t even have a trace of snow for February.

 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Preliminary AO data suggests that we may have a new 2nd highest reading following the record on February 10th. The first month with two +6 or higher values.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii

01Feb2020    0.20221E+01  -0.52677E-01   0.29204E+00  -0.64548E+00
02Feb2020    0.18573E+01   0.21773E+00   0.20699E+00  -0.55492E+00
03Feb2020    0.12789E+01   0.15999E-01   0.71990E-01   0.41582E+00
04Feb2020    0.11909E+01  -0.10099E+00   0.56737E-01   0.79638E+00
05Feb2020    0.11668E+01  -0.29145E+00   0.34918E+00   0.96277E+00
06Feb2020    0.21146E+01  -0.21840E+00   0.56460E+00   0.11092E+01
07Feb2020    0.22717E+01   0.24262E+00   0.94827E+00   0.37856E+00
08Feb2020    0.31727E+01   0.82119E+00   0.87266E+00  -0.29577E+00
09Feb2020    0.51799E+01   0.14128E+01   0.44704E+00  -0.61452E+00
10Feb2020    0.63415E+01   0.15626E+01  -0.16199E+00  -0.78893E+00
11Feb2020    0.52334E+01   0.12471E+01  -0.42390E+00  -0.63371E+00
12Feb2020    0.32855E+01   0.10390E+01  -0.15466E+00   0.42111E+00
13Feb2020    0.18597E+01   0.79792E+00   0.64890E-01   0.11103E+01
14Feb2020    0.16864E+01   0.83402E+00   0.19030E+00   0.59934E+00
15Feb2020    0.27003E+01   0.11294E+01   0.25389E+00  -0.32445E+00
16Feb2020    0.41686E+01   0.12515E+01   0.12688E+00  -0.45273E+00
17Feb2020    0.47429E+01   0.12109E+01   0.62894E-01   0.58521E-01
18Feb2020    0.46598E+01   0.10510E+01   0.97554E-01   0.70548E-01
19Feb2020    0.43469E+01   0.10294E+01   0.21451E-01  -0.29174E+00
20Feb2020    0.43393E+01   0.10597E+01   0.13981E+00  -0.19496E+00
21Feb2020    0.58365E+01   0.12835E+01   0.22726E+00   0.24356E+00
22Feb2020    0.61873E+01   0.15184E+01   0.26919E+00   0.85533E+00
  Date         AO            NAO           PNA           AAO
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, RedSky said:

Spring looks a tad nippy 

gfs_T850_us_59.png

Spring has yet to arrive for another 2 weeks after this :)

Anyway, nice February weekend incoming.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts...

1. The preliminary value of the AO was +6.187. That was the second highest figure on record, just behind the preliminary value of +6.342 on February 10.

2. The prospect that New York City will see less than 10" seasonal snowfall for only the 10th time on record is increasing. No moderate or significant snowfalls appear likely through the remainder of February.

3. Past extremely strong polar vortex events at this time of year have been followed by a warmer than normal March in the region.

4. The CFSv2, which had previously shown very cold conditions for March, is now in the early stages of a possible correction. The latest run has dramatically reduced the expanse and magnitude of the cold from that shown on the recent runs.

5. Europe is likely to experience more above and much above normal temperatures in March.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Some people never learn....

Not everyone wants warm weather to come. Plenty of people are still in winter mode .

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1
  • Weenie 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Several times

Actually Rjay, if Dr. Dews and Anthony have the same laugh reaction to a post we have to admit, at least indirectly that the poster in question did accomplish something. If S19 joins with the same reaction, I’ll put in a plea to WXWATCHER007  for clemency.  As always ....

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today was another springlike day at the New York Botanical Garden. Under bright sunshine, the temperature reached 50°. Some tourists were overheard stating that they did not know New York City was so mild during the winter.

Four photos:

NYBG0222020-1.jpg

NYBG0222020-3.jpg

NYBG0222020-5.jpg

NYBG0222020-6.jpg

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Milder air returned to the region after a cool start. At Central Park, the temperature topped out at 50° during the late afternoon. Temperatures will be even warmer tomorrow. As a result, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns.

Winter 2019-2020 is the 12th winter on record that has seen New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 11 prior cases was 8.2" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 64% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1928-29 with 13.8" seasonal snowfall.

Winter 2019-2020 is the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +6.10 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +6.187. That surpassed the previous daily record of +4.590 from 2008.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 1, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February.

On February 21, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.670 (RMM). The February 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.082.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 75% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The last 7 days of February are averaging 42.5degs., or about 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +4.8[39.4].        February should end at  +4.9[40.2].

39* here at 6am.      44* by 10am.         49* by 1pm.        50* at 1:30pm.       52* at 2pm.      Due to sea breeze, topped out at 53* at 2:30pm.        45* by 10pm.

The first 10 days of March are averaging 41degs., or about 2 to 3 degrees AN, but model(06Z,GFS) is snow less.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This has been the driest start to the year since 2012 for NYC and surrounding stations. My last rain event with over 1.00” was back on January 25th.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Precipitation Jan 1 to Feb 23
Missing Count
2020-02-23 3.93 1
2019-02-23 6.11 0
2018-02-23 7.20 0
2017-02-23 6.77 0
2016-02-23 7.52 0
2015-02-23 7.27 0
2014-02-23 8.24 0
2013-02-23 5.30 0
2012-02-23 3.63 0
2011-02-23 6.59 0
2010-02-23 5.17 0

5883F1D3-A68C-40BE-959B-32F601713CEC.thumb.png.554e98cef196907500b7d3f50ef56d5e.png

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

39 here, but good radiational cooling overnight elsewhere.

6am:

NYC 40, JFK 30, Teterboro 26, White Plains 27, Farmingdale 27, Morristown 19, Islip 26. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts...

1. Record heat covers parts of northern Africa. Essaouira, Morocco hit a February record high temperature of 90°.

2. Temperatures will likely soar into the middle and even upper 50s in the Middle Atlantic region today and tomorrow. Washington, DC could see the temperature approach or reach 60°.

3. The powerful polar vortex remains strong.

4. The base case remains a warmer than normal March and Spring in the region.

The CFSv2 is now well underway in evolving toward what could be a warmer March outlook for the region.

CFSv02232020z.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dWave said:

39 here, but good radiational cooling overnight elsewhere.

6am:

NYC 40, JFK 30, Teterboro 26, White Plains 27, Farmingdale 27, Morristown 19, Islip 26. 

Yeah 26° here...temp was bouncing around all night with the subtle wind changes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The temperatures are off to the races. Newark has jumped 14 degrees in a few hours. The warm spots probably go 55-60 degrees today.

63793F1D-88AE-4557-9248-8CF45DE7443C.png.cda95df6dad6170f7e3e0ed0eb32815d.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, dWave said:

39 here, but good radiational cooling overnight elsewhere.

6am:

NYC 40, JFK 30, Teterboro 26, White Plains 27, Farmingdale 27, Morristown 19, Islip 26. 

23 in Muttontown and 24 in Syosset this morning both occurring around 6:30 am.  Currently 48 now and rising under sunny skies. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.