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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Milder air will return starting tomorrow. As a result, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +10.71 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.837. That surpassed the previous daily record of +4.399 from 2008.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 29, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February.

On February 20, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.077 (RMM). The February 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.640.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 75% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

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Just now, HailMan06 said:

Cold at hr 348 on the GFS. When have we seen that before? :whistle:

True that, but the GFS is on a roll it picked up on the last two days from far out and also next weekends cold which has ECM support.

 

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The last 8 days of February are averaging 42.5degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +4.8[39.4].       February should end near  +4.9[40.2], or 5th. Place.

The March cooldown now consists of five days in the 60's!!!.      I'll calculate the damage when I recover.       OK, the (06Z, GFS) is averaging 47degs. for the first 9 days of March, or about 8 or 9 degrees AN.

31* here at 6am.      32* by 8am.        41* by Noon.          47* by 2pm.       50* at 3pm.        52* at 4pm.      47* by 6pm.       43* by 11pm.

 

 

 

 

 

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Preliminary AO data suggests that we may have a new 2nd highest reading following the record on February 10th. The first month with two +6 or higher values.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii

01Feb2020    0.20221E+01  -0.52677E-01   0.29204E+00  -0.64548E+00
02Feb2020    0.18573E+01   0.21773E+00   0.20699E+00  -0.55492E+00
03Feb2020    0.12789E+01   0.15999E-01   0.71990E-01   0.41582E+00
04Feb2020    0.11909E+01  -0.10099E+00   0.56737E-01   0.79638E+00
05Feb2020    0.11668E+01  -0.29145E+00   0.34918E+00   0.96277E+00
06Feb2020    0.21146E+01  -0.21840E+00   0.56460E+00   0.11092E+01
07Feb2020    0.22717E+01   0.24262E+00   0.94827E+00   0.37856E+00
08Feb2020    0.31727E+01   0.82119E+00   0.87266E+00  -0.29577E+00
09Feb2020    0.51799E+01   0.14128E+01   0.44704E+00  -0.61452E+00
10Feb2020    0.63415E+01   0.15626E+01  -0.16199E+00  -0.78893E+00
11Feb2020    0.52334E+01   0.12471E+01  -0.42390E+00  -0.63371E+00
12Feb2020    0.32855E+01   0.10390E+01  -0.15466E+00   0.42111E+00
13Feb2020    0.18597E+01   0.79792E+00   0.64890E-01   0.11103E+01
14Feb2020    0.16864E+01   0.83402E+00   0.19030E+00   0.59934E+00
15Feb2020    0.27003E+01   0.11294E+01   0.25389E+00  -0.32445E+00
16Feb2020    0.41686E+01   0.12515E+01   0.12688E+00  -0.45273E+00
17Feb2020    0.47429E+01   0.12109E+01   0.62894E-01   0.58521E-01
18Feb2020    0.46598E+01   0.10510E+01   0.97554E-01   0.70548E-01
19Feb2020    0.43469E+01   0.10294E+01   0.21451E-01  -0.29174E+00
20Feb2020    0.43393E+01   0.10597E+01   0.13981E+00  -0.19496E+00
21Feb2020    0.58365E+01   0.12835E+01   0.22726E+00   0.24356E+00
22Feb2020    0.61873E+01   0.15184E+01   0.26919E+00   0.85533E+00
  Date         AO            NAO           PNA           AAO
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8 hours ago, RedSky said:

Spring looks a tad nippy 

gfs_T850_us_59.png

Spring has yet to arrive for another 2 weeks after this :)

Anyway, nice February weekend incoming.

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Morning thoughts...

1. The preliminary value of the AO was +6.187. That was the second highest figure on record, just behind the preliminary value of +6.342 on February 10.

2. The prospect that New York City will see less than 10" seasonal snowfall for only the 10th time on record is increasing. No moderate or significant snowfalls appear likely through the remainder of February.

3. Past extremely strong polar vortex events at this time of year have been followed by a warmer than normal March in the region.

4. The CFSv2, which had previously shown very cold conditions for March, is now in the early stages of a possible correction. The latest run has dramatically reduced the expanse and magnitude of the cold from that shown on the recent runs.

5. Europe is likely to experience more above and much above normal temperatures in March.

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52 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Some people never learn....

Not everyone wants warm weather to come. Plenty of people are still in winter mode .

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4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Several times

Actually Rjay, if Dr. Dews and Anthony have the same laugh reaction to a post we have to admit, at least indirectly that the poster in question did accomplish something. If S19 joins with the same reaction, I’ll put in a plea to WXWATCHER007  for clemency.  As always ....

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Today was another springlike day at the New York Botanical Garden. Under bright sunshine, the temperature reached 50°. Some tourists were overheard stating that they did not know New York City was so mild during the winter.

Four photos:

NYBG0222020-1.jpg

NYBG0222020-3.jpg

NYBG0222020-5.jpg

NYBG0222020-6.jpg

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Milder air returned to the region after a cool start. At Central Park, the temperature topped out at 50° during the late afternoon. Temperatures will be even warmer tomorrow. As a result, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns.

Winter 2019-2020 is the 12th winter on record that has seen New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 11 prior cases was 8.2" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 64% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1928-29 with 13.8" seasonal snowfall.

Winter 2019-2020 is the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +6.10 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +6.187. That surpassed the previous daily record of +4.590 from 2008.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 1, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February.

On February 21, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.670 (RMM). The February 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.082.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 75% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

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The last 7 days of February are averaging 42.5degs., or about 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +4.8[39.4].        February should end at  +4.9[40.2].

39* here at 6am.

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