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January 25-26 Threat

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On 1/21/2020 at 1:48 PM, weatherwiz said:

The euro has tiny pockets of surface-based CAPE move across the region!!! not surprised given those lapse rates...wish Ryan's page had elevated CAPE but I would think we could be dealing with some weak elevated CAPE...could see elevated convection (especially in the "warm sector"). 

 

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

:hurrbear:

:icecream:

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Just now, Whineminster said:

Is winter over? :( 

It's never really arrived.  It blew through the station 7 weeks ago and hasn't been seen from since.

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45 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Big Black Rive or Nine mile bridge.

Low elevation sites, much mix.  Maybe 1,000'+ higher at Deboullie, Rocky or the boundary plateau south of Little Black.  Or will they be in the warm air?  :axe:

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Long range NAM was actually decent

By the time the NAM could see it, the other globals had already trended pretty far north....so I don't think the NAM was exceptional at this timeframe compared to the others.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

GGEM was actually the first model along with the Ukie that had this cutting thru SNE.

Yeah both of those were the "winners"....though even their ULL tracks were too far south at that time...something like over SNE and into Maine via WV and PA....this thing is actually tracking over Detroit and Toronto.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah both of those were the "winners"....though even their ULL tracks were too far south at that time...something like over SNE and into Maine via WV and PA....this thing is actually tracking over Detroit and Toronto.

Good call by the way even though at the time you were joking but said what can stop it from actually getting there which was nothing really once we lost the confluence.

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13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Good call by the way even though at the time you were joking but said what can stop it from actually getting there which was nothing really once we lost the confluence.

Ha....I was a bit skeptical it would actually track that far north....but I didn't think there was anything stopping the north trend.It was almost solely based on the confluence to the north.

 

Here's a comparison.....check out the heights north of Maine on the Euro 4 days compared to now.....:

 

 

 

 

Jan21_12zECMWF102.png

Jan24_12zECMWF42.png

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ha....I was a bit skeptical it would actually track that far north....but I didn't think there was anything stopping the north trend.It was almost solely based on the confluence to the north.

 

Here's a comparison.....check out the heights north of Maine on the Euro 4 days compared to now (click to animate):

output_dSRPaB.gif

 

 

 

Yeah, It just eroded and retreated further north, Unfortunate that this air mass is so marginal, Canada flooded with pac air.

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10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

:raining:has commenced. Where is the obs thread

 

Light Rain - Unlimited Visibility - I have Mount Tolland as my landmark for visibility since I got scolded for my moderate snow report a few storms back.  Even though it’s 50 miles to my NE, Mount Tolland is so high I’m pretty sure I can see it in the background.   Or maybe that’s a tree. Anyways enjoy the rain it’s the only precip you got! 

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15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Light Rain - Unlimited Visibility - I have Mount Tolland as my landmark for visibility since I got scolded for my moderate snow report a few storms back.  Even though it’s 50 miles to my NE, Mount Tolland is so high I’m pretty sure I can see it in the background.   Or maybe that’s a tree. Anyways enjoy the rain it’s the only precip you got! 

Salty McSalterson.

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26 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Light rain and 41F, where the 45-50F?

 Was that going to be a thing? 

Light rain 36F here. 

B’East was good today. Rain held off until 2pm

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6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Was that going to be a thing? 

Light rain 36F here. 

B’East was good today. Rain held off until 2pm

DIT told me to expect 45-50F.

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7 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

DIT told me to expect 45-50F.

I did not see any forecast that had that. Perhaps for a brief time tomorrow morning?

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14 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

How much rain is everyone getting today? That was some heavy rain today 

 Been pretty light here and did not even start until 2 PM.  Congrats NYC and HV so far on rain totals. 

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Been pretty light here and did not even start until 2 PM.  Congrats NYC and HV so far on rain totals. 

Lol congrats on rain??? Thanks Im feening for some snow, rain did wash my car nicely though today!

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