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January 25-26 Threat


HoarfrostHubb
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7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This thread has gone full  :frostymelt::frostymelt::frostymelt:

 If you’re not getting snow in January, yes it sucks but the atmosphere manifests as it does and our mathematical models are still a fallible tool.  

Just have fun and go outside every day every season!

Nam has 1.5 ice in whites, Maine 

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11 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Terrible for down this way...and into central New England. At least up north gets smoked. 

I was just flat out wrong about this; overlooked the ++EPO, and how the pacific is trending worse over time. Won’t do that again. Remarkable how that alone is trumping everything else, AND climo. Can’t fight a terrible pacific; not even in peak climo in New England. Noted.

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25 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Nice cold rn with some mix here. Wtf

You know it’s bad when the main forecast x-factor in the AFD is whether frontogenic forcing will enhance rainfall rates. Oh well - sucks after the week of deep-ish winter that we just had, but these happen every year even up here. At least ski country should be OK.

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19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

As long as the foothills, Mthns and Northern Maine come out of this ok, I have no issues with it, Time to head NW, I think i'll go to Eustis next weekend.

I am hoping that we don't go back to square one as Lava Rock suggests, though I know my location is slightly better to withstand this crappy system.  BTV seems to think we get a sloppy mix

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 435 AM EST Thursday...Still anticipate a wintry event to occur
over the weekend. Model guidance continues to be in disagreement
with the details, however. Low pressure across the Great Lakes will
give way to a secondary low which will develop over the Mid Atlantic
states, then lift north or northeast. The question will be exactly
where and when this secondary low tracks and how quickly its cold
air moves into our area. This has big implications on precip type
and amounts. Warm advection precip will move in during the day
Saturday, becoming heaviest during the evening hours as a band of
strong frontogenetical forcing lifts across the region. The NAM
takes the secondary low to our south, while the GFS and CMC actually
lift northward through NY, keeping it to our west. The NAM solution
would mean a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain as east-
southeast flow would keep low-level cold air locked up on the
eastern side of the Greens and portions of the Adirondacks. However,
it should be noted that the warm nose aloft could well be eroded
away as evaporational cooling brings the temp aloft down to the wet-
bulb temperature which would mean more of a rain/snow type of
profile. Meanwhile, the the CMC and GFS solutions would mean snow
going to rain with perhaps just a bit of freezing rain or sleet
mixed in at the transition. Also noted that the SREF p-type plumes
are indicating the most likely p-type east of the Greens will be
rain, followed closely by freezing rain at 30-35%. Given all
this...have stayed with mainly a rain/snow precip type based on
surface temps, but added a slight chance of freezing rain for areas
below 32F. This and the warmer GFS and CMC solutions ended up
cutting back on snow amounts; now anticipate 2 to 4 inches across
much of northern NY where the colder air is more likely to hang in.
Much of VT would get 1 to 3 inches of snow, with higher amounts in
the higher terrain in the south central Greens. The aforementioned
east-southeast flow would result in shadowing in the Northeast
Kingdom, so for now expect an inch or less there. Regardless of
where the low tracks, colder air will spread from west to east on
Sunday once the secondary moves to our east. Flow turns to the
north-northwest, which will allow snow showers to become focused
along the western slopes of the higher terrain. Temperatures through
this entire period will likely be within 5 degrees of freezing,
making the precip type and amount forecast even more challenging.
Lots of details still need to be ironed out, so stay tuned for later
forecasts.
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Just now, mreaves said:

I am hoping that we don't go back to square one as Lava Rock suggests, though I know my location is slightly better to withstand this crappy system.  BTV seems to think we get a sloppy mix

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 435 AM EST Thursday...Still anticipate a wintry event to occur
over the weekend. Model guidance continues to be in disagreement
with the details, however. Low pressure across the Great Lakes will
give way to a secondary low which will develop over the Mid Atlantic
states, then lift north or northeast. The question will be exactly
where and when this secondary low tracks and how quickly its cold
air moves into our area. This has big implications on precip type
and amounts. Warm advection precip will move in during the day
Saturday, becoming heaviest during the evening hours as a band of
strong frontogenetical forcing lifts across the region. The NAM
takes the secondary low to our south, while the GFS and CMC actually
lift northward through NY, keeping it to our west. The NAM solution
would mean a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain as east-
southeast flow would keep low-level cold air locked up on the
eastern side of the Greens and portions of the Adirondacks. However,
it should be noted that the warm nose aloft could well be eroded
away as evaporational cooling brings the temp aloft down to the wet-
bulb temperature which would mean more of a rain/snow type of
profile. Meanwhile, the the CMC and GFS solutions would mean snow
going to rain with perhaps just a bit of freezing rain or sleet
mixed in at the transition. Also noted that the SREF p-type plumes
are indicating the most likely p-type east of the Greens will be
rain, followed closely by freezing rain at 30-35%. Given all
this...have stayed with mainly a rain/snow precip type based on
surface temps, but added a slight chance of freezing rain for areas
below 32F. This and the warmer GFS and CMC solutions ended up
cutting back on snow amounts; now anticipate 2 to 4 inches across
much of northern NY where the colder air is more likely to hang in.
Much of VT would get 1 to 3 inches of snow, with higher amounts in
the higher terrain in the south central Greens. The aforementioned
east-southeast flow would result in shadowing in the Northeast
Kingdom, so for now expect an inch or less there. Regardless of
where the low tracks, colder air will spread from west to east on
Sunday once the secondary moves to our east. Flow turns to the
north-northwest, which will allow snow showers to become focused
along the western slopes of the higher terrain. Temperatures through
this entire period will likely be within 5 degrees of freezing,
making the precip type and amount forecast even more challenging.
Lots of details still need to be ironed out, so stay tuned for later
forecasts.

I don't think we will be going back to square one, Right now, Just looking to minimize the damage if possible, Still seems to be a lot of uncertainty but its no surprise every system so far this winter has been that way.

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Just now, dryslot said:

I don't think we will be going back to square one, Right now, Just looking to minimize the damage if possible, Still seems to be a lot of uncertainty but its no surprise every system so far this winter has been that way.

May have to travel next weekend to Maine for the open weekend.  Sleds are already on the trailer and may not be taken off this weekend.  I do like to see the NAM reduce qpf output.  I can at least have something to tell myself is a positive sign.

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2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

May have to travel next weekend to Maine for the open weekend.  Sleds are already on the trailer and may not be taken off this weekend.  I do like to see the NAM reduce qpf output.  I can at least have something to tell myself is a positive sign.

You would enjoy it, Western and Northern Maine will be fine on this one.

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13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You would enjoy it, Western and Northern Maine will be fine on this one.

I think anywhere in western Maine is going to be overrun with sleds because of proximity to NH.  Many people from further away from the state line that I have talked to over the years at the snowmobile show haven't even been all that aware there is an open weekend.  I'd probably want to get to at least Millinocket.  I haven't been that far up.  I'm still unsure whether we are going to do it though. 

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