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Mid to Long Range Threats

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19 hours ago, Allsnow said:

What did you measure for the first event in March? We got screwed here by substance with the CCB to my west. We got to 6 in Metuchen but crawled our way there. The following system more then made up for it 

Had less than that really but it compacted so maybe not, but what was really frustrating were the folks here who told me I didn't know what I was talking about, that I was being a weenie, and it would come down hard eventually. As if I can't see what is outside my front door....

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3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Had less than that really but it compacted so maybe not, but what was really frustrating were the folks here who told me I didn't know what I was talking about, that I was being a weenie, and it would come down hard eventually. As if I can't see what is outside my front door....

Haha. True. Really incredible gradient in our county for that storm. New Brunswick 10 Metuchen 6 Woodbridge 3. At one point we had light rain here as the CCB pounded to our west. We did have thunder snow and 2-3 inch rates when the event started.

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8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. True. Really incredible gradient in our county for that storm. New Brunswick 10 Metuchen 6 Woodbridge 3. At one point we had light rain here as the CCB pounded to our west. We did have thunder snow and 2-3 inch rates when the event started.

Actually that isn't unusual. For example, the 2/610 storm left me with about 3, but folks in Metuchen had more ( the difference between 3 and 6 in very noticeable )and as you went further south it kept going up. My wife just unearthed some photos we have from around the Camden aquarium when the kids were little, the day after the blizzard. Incredibly the aquarium was open and the streets were quite clear; you can see the mountains of snow all along the Delaware river....

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13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Haha. True. Really incredible gradient in our county for that storm. New Brunswick 10 Metuchen 6 Woodbridge 3. At one point we had light rain here as the CCB pounded to our west. We did have thunder snow and 2-3 inch rates when the event started.

Even for the snowy 2010’s, March 2018 was a big outlier for late season snowfall.  ISP broke the March record with 31.9 inches of snow. The interesting stat is that ISP has had only 19.6 inches of snowfall for the last 2 winters. So more than 10 inches less than March 2018.
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8
2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 M M 6.8
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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even for the snowy 2010’s, March 2018 was a big outlier for late season snowfall.  ISP broke the March record with 31.9 inches of snow. The interesting stat is that ISP has had only 19.6 inches of snowfall for the last 2 winters. So more than 10 inches less than March 2018.
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8
2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 M M 6.8

We are in a snow drought no doubt. Hope its not a long term pattern. But I've seen that happen.

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4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We are in a snow drought no doubt. Hope its not a long term pattern. But I've seen that happen.

Welcome to the all or nothing snowfall era. ISP has been either much above or much below since 2010. A midrange 20’s snowfall season has been missing.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
2020-04-30 6.8 76
2019-04-30 12.8 0
2018-04-30 65.9 0
2017-04-30 39.3 0
2016-04-30 41.4 0
2015-04-30 63.7 0
2014-04-30 63.7 0
2013-04-30 46.9 0
2012-04-30 4.7 0
2011-04-30 55.3 0
2010-04-30 53.8 0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Welcome to the all or nothing snowfall era. ISP has been either much above or much below since 2010. A midrange 20’s snowfall season has been missing.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
2020-04-30 6.8 76
2019-04-30 12.8 0
2018-04-30 65.9 0
2017-04-30 39.3 0
2016-04-30 41.4 0
2015-04-30 63.7 0
2014-04-30 63.7 0
2013-04-30 46.9 0
2012-04-30 4.7 0
2011-04-30 55.3 0
2010-04-30 53.8 0

 

 

What a stretch on Long Island from 2010 to 2018. Crazy. 

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27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

What a stretch on Long Island from 2010 to 2018. Crazy. 

Precisely what I have been saying for a few years now.   People’s expectations of winter on LI have been altered.

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5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Absurd. We will never see a run like that again 

I think it runs in cycles. Seems to be a 30 year below average snowfall cycle to 20 year above average. If I am not mistaken 1920 to 1950 were not particularly snowy. 1950 to 1970 were very snowy and 1970 to 2000 were not too snowy. Of course the last 20 years may have been snowiest.

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7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Absurd. We will never see a run like that again 

I want to agree 100%

but I lived through the 70’s and 80’s
consistently told that big snows couldn’t happen on LI  

you never know

 

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I grew up in the 1960's...it was a great decade for snow...Christmas was white almost every year...then came the 1970's and 1980's...from the 1969-70 winter to the 1991-92 winter NYC had one winter with at least 30" of snow...1977-78 had over 50 inches and two storms over a foot...1979 had a snowstorm over a foot...1983 had an 18" snowstorm...1982 had the April Blizzard...since the 1992-93 winter there have been 14 years with at least 30" of snow and to many major storms to mention...in todays world with more moisture in the air snow droughts could be short but who knows for sure...after the snowy 1940's NYC had six winters with less than 20" of snow...the seventh year was 1955-56...it was even worse going into March until two major storms came during the third week of March...that period was much drier than today is...before the 1995-96 winter NYC had two years with a storm 20" or more...1888 and 1947...since 1996 the city has five...1996, 2006, 2010, 2010, 2016...2003 and 2011 just missed 20"...

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13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

I not worried, S19. I have faith that you will be back by the next legitimate NYC frozen precipitation. threat. Then again, stay calm and get comfortable, it may be awhile. As always ....

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Taking any snow out of the conversation Larry Cosgrove seemed pretty concerned for a potential storm which could be a major player for extreme weather over most of the eastern US late month which the models seem to be hinting at. He also hinted that more major springs storms to could follow. March/April can be active months for high impact weather events so just because we may not snow that certainly doesn't mean we can't see a few high impact weather events which could bring others hazards.

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7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Taking any snow out of the conversation Larry Cosgrove seemed pretty concerned for a potential storm which could be a major player for extreme weather of most of the eastern US late month which the models seem to be hinting at. He also hinted that more major springs storms to could follow. March/April can be active months for high impact weather events so just because we may not snow that certainly doesn't mean we can't see a few high impact weather events which could bring others hazards.

Just read it, not only does he think there’s no more snow for the east coast the remainder of winter, he’s hinting that spring and summer may be scorching hot for us with a major SE ridge and La Niña developing. God I hope not, I absolutely hate the heat 

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just read it, not only does he think there’s no more snow for the east coast the remainder of winter, he’s hinting that spring and summer may be scorching hot for us with a major SE ridge and La Niña developing. God I hope not, I absolutely hate the heat 

He didnt say no more snow

I hate the heat

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He didnt say no more snow

I hate the heat

Larry: “The snow risks would be limited to the Front Range, northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest.” “I do not accept the colder outlooks spewed out by the weekly model output. There is no sign of entrenched blocking in any of the critical positions (AK/YT, Nunavut AR or Greenland), the flow goes semizonal at times, and the repetition of the subtropical jet stream cannot be ignored. I follow the Canadian ensemble members in shaping another trough complex out of the West and High Plains by March 2. So a return to a cold West vs. mild or changeable East seems probable.”

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52 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Taking any snow out of the conversation Larry Cosgrove seemed pretty concerned for a potential storm which could be a major player for extreme weather over most of the eastern US late month which the models seem to be hinting at. He also hinted that more major springs storms to could follow. March/April can be active months for high impact weather events so just because we may not snow that certainly doesn't mean we can't see a few high impact weather events which could bring others hazards.

Earthlight tweeted about this yesterday 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Eps drops the hammer with the cold at the end of February into first week of March 

Well if it actually happens it took long enough. Are we setting up another late February first half of March snowy period?? TBD

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2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Well if it actually happens it took long enough. Are we setting up another late February first half of March snowy period?? TBD

Yep. Definitely TBD on the snow. But I’m confident on the cold shot it has mjo support. 

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27 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Well if it actually happens it took long enough. Are we setting up another late February first half of March snowy period?? TBD

It’s more the first week of March for the bulk of the cold if the EPS is correct. Does it snow? Who knows, it’s not showing anything big at the moment. It’s PAC/EPO driven, no -NAO or -AO. PNA is negative

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2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Taking any snow out of the conversation Larry Cosgrove seemed pretty concerned for a potential storm which could be a major player for extreme weather over most of the eastern US late month which the models seem to be hinting at. He also hinted that more major springs storms to could follow. March/April can be active months for high impact weather events so just because we may not snow that certainly doesn't mean we can't see a few high impact weather events which could bring others hazards.

A while ago, Cosgrove used to be on one of the Philly stations. I always liked how he went in depth when giving his forecast. I learned more than the usual. I could tell he liked snow, and if he is negative about it then it seems worth a listen. Still hopeful we have a window late month into early March.

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. Definitely TBD on the snow. But I’m confident on the cold shot it has mjo support. 

We can't seem to shake the timing where things become more favorable at the tail end of winter. It would be something if we see a few winter storms from the last week of the month thru the first half of March. What would this be three years in a row??

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2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

We can't seem to shake the timing where things become more favorable at the tail end of winter. It would be something if we see a few winter storms from the last week of the month thru the first half of March. What would this be three years in a row??

Yep. Plus as @uncle W detailed we don’t need all the  stars to align for snow in March. In March 2019 that snowy weekend was all -epo driven. Initial it looks like we are to deep into the trough but when it relaxes we might get something. 

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5 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

A while ago, Cosgrove used to be on one of the Philly stations. I always liked how he went in depth when giving his forecast. I learned more than the usual. I could tell he liked snow, and if he is negative about it then it seems worth a listen. Still hopeful we have a window late month into early March.

I used to watch him when he was at WOR channel 9 news in Secaucus NJ back in the 80's along with Lloyd Lindsey Young. I have been subscribed to Larry's newsletter for at least 15 years now. Always a good read.

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Next weeks cold shot gettting colder on the eps. I would think this might be a problem for early budding trees in the southeast 

F52DCC39-BCDC-4664-B74B-83DA6CA013F6.png

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yep. Plus as @uncle W detailed we don’t need all the  stars to align for snow in March. In March 2019 that snowy weekend was all -epo driven. Initial it looks like we are to deep into the trough but when it relaxes we might get something. 

Funny thing is it always seems to snow around my birthday which is March 5th, we will see if that holds this year.

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