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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Ggem makes things close for next weekend. 

 

Its a good model right lol

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

Well the date is magical.  Mythical even.  Who knows. Ratcheted down expectations to waiting for November.  

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Ggem makes things close for next weekend. 
 
Its a good model right lol
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.thumb.png.c896e81750a9783391dca855cfae3253.png
Icon has a similar track but more west. We need a miracle

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Look how much the models changed last week to screw us for the storm yesterday. We need the opposite to happen

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Look how much the models changed last week to screw us for the storm yesterday. We need the opposite to happen

Actually a really good point. We've seen so many MR flips and trends so who knows. But why is it always when we need a flip to the good we rarely ever get it yet the other way around is almost a given....the old being in the bullseye 5+ days out thing.

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17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Ggem makes things close for next weekend. 

 

Its a good model right lol

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

CMC with a worse track ie an inside runner or right on the coast, yet is colder and snowier. OK I'm sure that'll work out.

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Look how much the models changed last week to screw us for the storm yesterday. We need the opposite to happen

Yes but the reality is it's just like dropping a buttered piece of bread, it always falls buttered side down. ;)

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20 minutes ago, Ji said:

Look how much the models changed last week to screw us for the storm yesterday. We need the opposite to happen

It happens sometimes but we can never escape the reality that 80-90% of our winter precip is rain on average going back 100s of years. The odds of a good trend are 10% and a bad trend is 90%. There's a very clear statistical reason that the vast majority of our events trend the wrong way

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32 minutes ago, Ji said:
40 minutes ago, Chris78 said:
Ggem makes things close for next weekend. 
 
Its a good model right lol
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.thumb.png.c896e81750a9783391dca855cfae3253.png

Icon has a similar track but more west. We need a miracle

Both models would be great if the H5 dug more south next weekend. 

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It happens sometimes but we can never escape the reality that 80-90% of our winter precip is rain on average going back 100s of years. The odds of a good trend are 10% and a bad trend is 90%. There's a very clear statistical reason that the vast majority of our events trend the wrong way
I remember a few storms that were modeled rain that snowed but extremely rare. Pd2 and late feb 2015( the west track storm) come to mind. Jan 2011 trafficgeddon too

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Just now, Ji said:
30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
It happens sometimes but we can never escape the reality that 80-90% of our winter precip is rain on average going back 100s of years. The odds of a good trend are 10% and a bad trend is 90%. There's a very clear statistical reason that the vast majority of our events trend the wrong way

I remember a few storms that were modeled rain that snowed but extremely rare. Pd2 and late feb 2015( the west track storm) come to mind. Jan 2011 trafficgeddon too

The real flaw this winter is a total lack of deep cold airmasses. We've had zero since mid Dec. A week ago ens really teased us with deep cold. It's just not happening for any reason so far. For the next 3 weeks we really only need "normal cold" and even that is challenging it seems. 

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I'm excited for the negative NAO to pop up in time for Opening Day.

Snow again for opening day lol

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7 minutes ago, Mersky said:

61977D66-9058-4AC4-95EE-A8F5C4BB365D.gif

Looks improved.  It’s the lack of cold that is the long pole in the tent...the tent with a hole in it and the bear outside. 

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These nice H5 tracks are painful when it’s 75% rain for everyone...81 west looks ok on the euro.

6554655D-53FE-41A1-BFCC-DD79AD51A4BF.png

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Close to the best run yet for us east of the mountains.

51951B1C-345B-4CD9-9537-67E176351637.png

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Just now, LP08 said:

Close to the best run yet for us east of the mountains.

51951B1C-345B-4CD9-9537-67E176351637.png

Moves East from there. Big changes 

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Just now, Mersky said:

Moves East from there. Big changes 

Problem is that it’s void of cold air anywhere....but it’s close.  

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Just now, LP08 said:

Problem is that it’s void of cold air anywhere....but it’s close.  

Considering it was running into Michigan two days ago it is a step in the right direction. Certainly higher elevations and farther north one is the better 

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Euro looks a lot like march 2013.  Closed low tracking too far south, marginal airmass.

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I think I said a couple days ago that this storm has potential for areas north and west. Elevation may really help with this one. I guess we could root for it to get more amped? Might help create its own cold air. 

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UKMET has the high far enough west to make the back end interesting.

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

WTF Euro?  I was ready to be out.  

 

33633512-55A4-40BD-BED7-8E71FC8DDBEA.png

All caveats aside...it’s a pasting out west.

D6982D18-2A17-4640-A15A-18B4099AB709.png

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6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

All caveats aside...it’s a pasting out west.

D6982D18-2A17-4640-A15A-18B4099AB709.png

haha...I live east of 95. I know my climo and I've made peace with it. I genuinely would love if areas north and west got crushed with this thing. At the very least, looks like we may have something to track this week. Which is enjoyable. 

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