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January 18th Event

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Ok, you know the drill.  Let's keep this thread high and tight.  I understand there will be some light banter.  Let's keep even that to a bare minimum.   The mods are going to be extra heavy in this thread, so if you have complaints, head over to the banter thread and talk it out.  12z guidance was good, except for the Euro.  But we knew that was gonna happen.  Other than that, let's reel this one in.

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30 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro does like to amplify lows too strong in the mid range...weenie rule 14e

I'm not going to sweat 1 run 4+ days out. There's been a notable trend for a colder/souther solution the last few days across the ops and ens. Still enough time for relatively large shifts. No way this tracks under us but there is a path to a real storm. 

 

the euro isnt as bad as i thought...it didnt get warmer...it just got lighter on the qpf with the north shift....but 18z saturday is still frozen precip so we just need to adjust the low track. It seems like cold air wont be an issue...i dont think it rains on the euro...it just stops lol

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma.png

 

Late to the party with a late lunch but WB GEFS has about 80% of its Members with a decent hit for the DMV.  Interesting to see what the EPS has to offer.  Seems like MLK weekend is bonus snow if it pans out since many, including myself were worried the flip in the pattern could take a little longer to develop.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_total_multimember_panel-9413600.png

 

31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The wobbles have commenced. Euro broke the trend so we probably know less than we did 30 minutes ago. lol

 

30 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro does like to amplify lows too strong in the mid range...weenie rule 14e

Not saying it can’t be right but the op euro has been over amplified several times lately, including last week when it had that storm cutting to Erie 5 days out. 

 

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro isnt as bad as i thought...it didnt get warmer...it just got lighter on the qpf with the north shift....but 18z saturday is still frozen precip so we just need to adjust the low track. It seems like cold air wont be an issue...i dont think it rains on the euro...it just stops lol

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma.png

Glad you mentioned this. It's obviously not the big trend everyone wanted to see, but to act like it's a disaster is really odd. I'd call it just a tick in the worse direction, but I like the way the temperatures are trending. 

 

Op euro in the coastal camp for the storm next week. Weak surface reflection but this is a cows fart in the right direction away from a big storm!

2B4F9C1C-84A1-4862-968E-398816C95048.thumb.png.c31dffdfcd10b7dfc8cbcff06856364b.pngB1A2C0D6-83D9-4641-AB41-B32BA9725A1D.thumb.png.11e6d20cb831a9a7ffc40c6d137e5742.png

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As noted on the long range thread the Euro does tend to over amp storms at times.  It will be interesting to see if the EPS plays follow the leader.  Lock in the cold air depicted and weaken the low pressure just a bit and 2-6 inch snow/sleet to dry slot/drizzle is still in play.

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Im going to go ahead and call BS on the lack of surface reflection to this!

AC717D22-C448-455B-BB3A-BCBEF4F6736D.thumb.png.d8aa41ec06740fc252e35b7bae4df389.png

I suppose that would be a new way to fail, the “everything went right and WTF” scenario. 

But it doesn’t matter. Odds it’s 100% with h5 at that range is small but either way don’t sleep on early next week. It’s not showing on the current op runs but the potential is there.  

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Op euro in the coastal camp for the storm next week. Weak surface reflection but this is a cows fart in the right direction away from a big storm!

2B4F9C1C-84A1-4862-968E-398816C95048.thumb.png.c31dffdfcd10b7dfc8cbcff06856364b.pngB1A2C0D6-83D9-4641-AB41-B32BA9725A1D.thumb.png.11e6d20cb831a9a7ffc40c6d137e5742.png

216 500mb is bizarre. Going to hook back into NJ/NYC.  Nowhere to escape. 

Edit, nevermind it just stalled offshore. Northern stream didn't capture it, although it looks close.

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EPS is pretty much unanimous of at least some frozen but as posted above it cut back. There's still an equal mix of a trace/2-4/bigger event like the GFS type solution. Spread indicates that it's too early to jump to any conclusions though. 

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What happened with the euro seems to be because the trough in the plains is deeper. Mentioned this a day or so ago. We need it flatter out there. It wasn’t a huge change but evidently the low is really sensitive to the depth of that trough.

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With the wonder ICON on board now, I do believe that as of the 12Z suite, we are frighteningly close to universality with at least some frozen. 

Are there still any holdouts left?

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Missed all the model discussion today but quick peek at the 12z Gefs shows the door is still cracked open for a  possible transfer that would occur far enough south to extend snow chances for some . A few members show it or hint at one .Its definitely a long shot but there .

f138.gif

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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Its the Icon but I tihnk its heading in the right direction at 81 hr...lower heights, overall development looks a little south

That's not an inconsequential bump south either. Should be a colder run but so was the euro and slower timing was a wash. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's not an inconsequential bump south either. Should be a colder run but so was the euro and slower timing was a wash. 

It’s way south...this could be a real nice run

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's not an inconsequential bump south either. Should be a colder run but so was the euro and slower timing was a wash. 

Woah, its way south at 102 lol..might not even cut west this run

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

It’s way south...this could be a real nice run

Yea, IDGAF is the ICON is on crack right now. I'll take a hit and hug it. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Yea, IDGAF is the ICON is on crack right now. I'll take a hit and hug it. 

Lol if we can see it....also much slower.  Hug until the next best run comes along

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Lol if we can see it....also much slower.  Hug until the next best run comes along

I don't see any way this tracks under us. I know there's a chance but man, it's just not a good setup for that. However, track it west of the apps through the TN valley and the WAA/warm front can drop a lot of QPF into a decent column. Like .5-1" qpf. The ICON is a really big step towards a best case scenario. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't see any way this tracks under us. I know there's a chance but man, it's just not a good setup for that. However, track it west of the apps through the TN valley and the WAA/warm front can drop a lot of QPF into a decent column. Like .5-1" qpf. The ICON is a really big step towards a best case scenario. 

There ya go. And I do think there’s a chance that happens. Put it in the Tn valley and you have a real shot of it jumping and basically dry slotting and never get above freezing

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I don't see any way this tracks under us. I know there's a chance but man, it's just not a good setup for that. However, track it west of the apps through the TN valley and the WAA/warm front can drop a lot of QPF into a decent column. Like .5-1" qpf. The ICON is a really big step towards a best case scenario. 

Yeah.  That’s the goal is to get it as Far East before it cuts.  I’m skeptical of the Euro being so strong early, a known bias this year in the mid-range.  Let’s keep ticking til game time.

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Yeah.  That’s the goal is to get it as Far East before it cuts.  I’m skeptical of the Euro being so strong early, a known bias this year in the mid-range.  Let’s keep ticking til game time.

If the 18z GFS bumps south again I'm tossing the Euro op and I'm not kidding around. The Euro is an outlier of sorts with strength and placement.

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, IDGAF is the ICON is on crack right now. I'll take a hit and hug it. 

This is a lot more fun than day 15 pattern chasing 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If the 18z GFS bumps south again I'm tossing the Euro op and I'm not kidding around. The Euro is an outlier of sorts with strength and placement.

The euro isn’t superior by enough to just ride with it no matter what.  Especially in specific situations when adjusting for its typical error bias is rational. It’s been over amplifying systems lately.  

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