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wdrag

Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020

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8 hours ago, Enigma said:

Synoptics. Get a handle on it already. This is NOT a 287 event. Everyone snows heavily for 2-4 hours with 1-1.5 in per hour rates. It turns to some rain. Everyone on the board accumulates.

Disagree, this isn’t a storm coming in from the south where we thump ahead of a warm front, it’s a SWFE cutter.  Southerly winds get going early before the precip arrives.  The BL will warm quickly for anyone East of the Hudson River, decent chance it starts off as rain and may only go to White rain before we lose the dew point depression on the warm advection

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Was it ever going to be more than a 1-3/2-4 event for the coast? Not really. It's looking like a 3-6 event by me north of 84. It was 68 degrees last weekend so I'll take it and run. 

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51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's not purely arctic and winds off the relatively warm water will change it quick-I'd expect an inch or less right on the south coast of LI, NC and NJ coast unless something changes

This is a 2-4 inches of snow in my opinion. It’s a good thump followed by rain! You know models always underestimate dynamic and evaporative cooling that’s a fact. So whatever the models show the rain snow line, take it down another 20 miles at least south.

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51 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Disagree, this isn’t a storm coming in from the south where we thump ahead of a warm front, it’s a SWFE cutter.  Southerly winds get going early before the precip arrives.  The BL will warm quickly for anyone East of the Hudson River, decent chance it starts off as rain and may only go to White rain before we lose the dew point depression on the warm advection

The south winds are a big problem.  That isn’t always the case because sometimes you can have a high in this location and an approaching system from the same area but the system is weaker and hence the gradient is light.  In mid to late January we could survive on a 5-7kt south flow and snow for awhile but not on a 15-25kt one.   

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57 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Disagree, this isn’t a storm coming in from the south where we thump ahead of a warm front, it’s a SWFE cutter.  Southerly winds get going early before the precip arrives.  The BL will warm quickly for anyone East of the Hudson River, decent chance it starts off as rain and may only go to White rain before we lose the dew point depression on the warm advection

Adamantly disagree with your limited assessment. 

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS has this more of a significant inland event - immediate NYC metro much less

gfs_asnow_neus_20.png

This map is awful to use as it includes sleet. Not the event for a map like this 

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

instead of just being critical of what I post - also add your 2 cents - what you think will happen - if you have a better map post it !

I did. It’s posted above. My thoughts haven’t changed. 2-4 for I-95 

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I remember light southerly winds for the 6" Feb 2008 snowfall...it was weird seeing it snow hard coming from the south...the very light winds were the key and it came a month later in February...

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2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The south winds are a big problem.  That isn’t always the case because sometimes you can have a high in this location and an approaching system from the same area but the system is weaker and hence the gradient is light.  In mid to late January we could survive on a 5-7kt south flow and snow for awhile but not on a 15-25kt one.   

This was always a 1-3 inch to all rain event for the metro area on Saturday, I’m not sure why it was hyped by some into anything more than that

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9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This was always a 1-3 inch to all rain event for the metro area on Saturday, I’m not sure why it was hyped by some into anything more than that

Well for one your definition of the metro area is somewhat limited. There's a lot of us out here that live 40 miles and more north of the city that may get 6 inches out of this, for what's been going on the last four weeks that would be a major win.

If your just referring to the city and south I agree with you.

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42 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Need to stop the amped trend or this will turn quickly into festive flakes then rain 

We’re not at the point yet where the SE ridge won’t be a big problem and storms won’t try to cut for the lakes. Maybe at the end of the month if the MJO helps. We have a decent airmass to start but the strong south winds will moderate that fast. I’m personally not in the mood for another slushy inch or two to a washout but it’s what the pattern supports. Often these trend more amped at the end anyway (and we’re nowhere near the end with this) 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’re not at the point yet where the SE ridge won’t be a big problem and storms won’t try to cut for the lakes. Maybe at the end of the month if the MJO helps. We have a decent airmass to start but the strong south winds will moderate that fast. I’m personally not in the mood for another slushy inch or two to a washout but it’s what the pattern supports. Often these trend more amped at the end anyway (and we’re nowhere near the end with this) 

 

The SE ridge is gone on the backside of this. The 20th. This ushers in the change that has been spoken about. As far as this system these always warm on the coast as you get closer as the H slips NE. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

We’re not at the point yet where the SE ridge won’t be a big problem and storms won’t try to cut for the lakes. Maybe at the end of the month if the MJO helps. We have a decent airmass to start but the strong south winds will moderate that fast. I’m personally not in the mood for another slushy inch or two to a washout but it’s what the pattern supports. Often these trend more amped at the end anyway (and we’re nowhere near the end with this) 

Euro is more amped and north this run. Very little snow for the metro area and 1-3 north and west

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0 from CNJ into the 5 boroughs and across LI. S winds will do that when the center cuts to Toronto. 

Looks right. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

0 from CNJ into the 5 boroughs and across LI. S winds will do that when the center cuts to Toronto. 

Looks right. 

 

 

Another storm where cold air is wasted . Unbelievable. 

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Another storm where cold air is wasted . Unbelievable. 

You are still in p5. This was never a snowstorm for the coast. 

 

Pattern changes after the 20th 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Stronger lows in the eastern Lakes won't work out here....I could see a mainly rain event if that trend continues

 

The Euro rains to Albany at the end.

 

That`s how far N the warm punch gets 

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reminds me of a storm last year on this same weekend-trended warmer and warmer right up to the event-got a sloppy inch here and then it rained moderately all day

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4 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

The Euro rains to Albany at the end.

 

That`s how far N the warm punch gets 

Yikes. Another trend with these SWFE type events is they try to cut as much as possible. If anything it might just keep amping up. 

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5 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

You are still in p5. This was never a snowstorm for the coast. 

 

Pattern changes after the 20th 

Hopefully it does because this winter is getting tiring. 

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

reminds me of a storm last year on this same weekend-trended warmer and warmer right up to the event-got a sloppy inch here and then it rained moderately all day

If the pattern doesn't support snow then it won't happen. MJO 5/6 is a big SE ridge signal so we shouldn't be shocked it trended more amped.

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Hopefully it does because this winter is getting tiring. 

close the shades for a week.  It's not worth losing sleep over.   More important things in life...

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I never understood why anybody at the coast gets hyped for events like this. SWFE events without a true arctic airmass in place are pretty much non events for us coasties. 2-4 at best washed away by rain does nothing for me personally. It's been a winter of non events thus far.

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2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I never understood why anybody at the coast gets hyped for events like this. SWFE events without a true arctic airmass in place are pretty much non events for us coasties. 2-4 at best washed away by rain does nothing for me personally. It's been a winter of non events thus far.

Agree.  And it was not even a true arctic airmass.  Once this became slower and drier we were in trouble.  By the time precip gets here we are warmer with south winds

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