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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020

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10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lol, reading the thread you'd think the 12z GFS increased totals but instead it cut back a little. Anyway, locked and loaded for 2-4". Dewpoints look like they'll be our friend.

Nothing is locked yet but we can be fairly confident about snow to start with the system. 

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9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lol, reading the thread you'd think the 12z GFS increased totals but instead it cut back a little. Anyway, locked and loaded for 2-4". Dewpoints look like they'll be our friend.

In our good winters we’d barely bat an eye at this but this winter, a snow event enough to plow/shovel might as well be a hecs. 

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And nothing’s guaranteed at all yet. We need a strong and locked in high. If that isn’t around, it’s a very quick slop to rain for most of us. A strong high can also eat much of the initial precip up in dry air. So still a ways to go. 

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12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lol, reading the thread you'd think the 12z GFS increased totals but instead it cut back a little. Anyway, locked and loaded for 2-4". Dewpoints look like they'll be our friend.

I don’t understand the point of this post.

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8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

In our good winters we’d barely bat an eye at this but this winter, a snow event enough to plow/shovel might as well be a hecs. 

I've yet to have snow cover for over 12 hours so yeah it's been pitiful.

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Going to be incorrect on my guess lol. Euro is further north at 12z with the primary. It’s over Chicago now compared to central Illinois at 00z

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18 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I know beggars cant be choosers, but the rain to snow systems are so much cooler

They seem to usually work out less well though, I always trust front end snow more than back end snow to really happen even though it stinks when front end snow gets washed away 

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12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

1044 high over the lakes....

0c line is in the mid Atlantic 

Could be the bias of the Euro.  Interesting week ahead.

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33 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lol, reading the thread you'd think the 12z GFS increased totals but instead it cut back a little. Anyway, locked and loaded for 2-4". Dewpoints look like they'll be our friend.

It was colder but decreased QPF and also has the boundary level warm at the coast however we know the GFS can get warm biased with the boundary layer. The setup the GFS is showing I think is a solid 3-6 inches at least for the Metro area. The fact the Euro is still way NW and more amped with the primary tells me the setup is still far from decided  

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

0c line is in the mid Atlantic 

Could be the bias of the Euro.  Interesting week ahead.

We can’t have it that amped out in the Midwest. One thing to look for is how Chicago makes out. If they remain all snow it’s better for us. 

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We can’t have it that amped out in the Midwest. One thing to look for is how Chicago makes out. If they remain all snow it’s better for us. 

Definitely 

Always the case

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The main difference between the Gfs and euro is just how much it digs out in the Midwest. The Gfs has less digging and lowers hgts out east. The euro is also stronger with the energy out west 

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14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro is 2-4 along the coast and 4-8 north and west. 

It's better than nothing. 

The Euro could be overdoing the amplification, it has a tendency to do so. 

On the other hand the MJO will be in phase 6 which tends to yield higher heights over us. 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's better than nothing. 

The Euro could be overdoing the amplification, it has a tendency to do so. 

On the other hand the MJO will be in phase 6 which tends to yield higher heights over us. 

I’d look for the SE ridge to be amplified, since models often underdo this ridge this far out, and it would cause more amplification. I don’t think it’s a deal killer for there to be a more amped primary low, we need the high north of us to anchor for a while and keep us cool enough for the initial burst of snow. We already know it won’t stay snow to the end. 

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Just miss a 990mb snowstorm next Thursday on the euro. It will most definitely change by 00z but we are finally seeing the change to a more optimistic snow pattern. 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t understand the point of this post.

The point of the post is people seeing what they want to see. People posting "basically an all snow event on the GFS". This is a textbook 2-4" to rain event.

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This isn’t going to be all snow. This is a fairly typical SWFE that will change over but hopefully with a strong enough high to make the front end be snow. 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

We can’t have it that amped out in the Midwest. One thing to look for is how Chicago makes out. If they remain all snow it’s better for us. 

Absolutely incorrect. Completely different setups. Coastal snow will breakout with isentropic lift from advancing warm front running into a very decent CAD signature. Chicago is none of that.

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This isn’t going to be all snow. This is a fairly typical SWFE that will change over but hopefully with a strong enough high to make the front end be snow. 

This isn't a SWFE or gradient type system. 

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