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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020

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9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Queens. Should be ~2" at all 3 stations maybe less at JFK. Unfortunately this initial band is drying up as it approaches

Yeah this front end thump is looking unlikely. Snowgoose was mentioning how these setups usually backfill faster than modeled so hopefully there isn't much of a lull. But for the time being, not looking likely for that either. 

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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

One of my least favorite things about living in the city is seeing good bands shrivel as they approach the Hudson

Yeah, DOA. It was looking juicy halfway through Jersey only to result in light snow.

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Probably around .2-.25 here from this band. Goes to show you what good ratios can do for you. Will definitely not be that way later today. 

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, DOA. It was looking juicy halfway through Jersey only to result in light snow.

Looks good on radar. Probably stuck between radar beams. Looks healthy moving into the city 

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Already a dusting here (central Union County, NJ).  Surprised it started so early, I thought the dry air would eat away at the snow.

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Looks good on radar. Probably stuck between radar beams. Looks healthy moving into the city 

Unimpressive on OKX and DIX. Definitely fizzled out in drier air.

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32 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

You're far enough north to see mostly snow before the dry slot moves in. Should do well up there.

As a side note that doesn't really belong in an obs thread but, in a more general sense when forecasts are made it would be cool if a distinction was made based on east and west of the River. I know it's hard to forecast for microclimates.

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3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Unimpressive on OKX and DIX. Definitely fizzled out in drier air.

Dry air often funnels down the Hudson Valley, very common for echoes to dry up and then pulse back up again east of town

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2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Dry air often funnels down the Hudson Valley, very common for echoes to dry up and then pulse back up again east of town

Yeah, its unfortunate. Getting some sweet virga at the moment.

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The increase in winds associated with this frontogenetic band are interesting. EWR began gusting just as it arrived. Radar velocities indicate winds will die down again as the more intense snow ends.

wind_fronto.thumb.png.c47bced85c12f283f83f773e28073047.png

908648270_ScreenShot2020-01-18at12_37_09PM.png.8c0ed2c2758d7b0f788b9588c797448f.png

KEWR 181723Z 23016G22KT 2SM -SN BKN027 BKN042 OVC060 M02/M12 A3042 RMK AO2 SNB22 P0000 T10221122

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Big dry slot north of philly that probably has to move through before the next batch moves in

Was looking at that, looks to be growing in size. Was well modeled

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Big dry slot north of philly that probably has to move through before the next batch moves in

It eased up here already. Came down hard for a bit and pfft

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9 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

been snowing steadily for 15 minutes here on the south shore of Staten Island. Everything already covered

Same here and still coming down in eltingville 

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7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Dry air often funnels down the Hudson Valley, very common for echoes to dry up and then pulse back up again east of town

The CT Valley river dry nose is notorious for being an issue here in the metro and eastern NJ.  It’s not common to see it on these events though because the flow isn’t NE.  This is likely just weakening of the forcing.  The CT river dry nose is most notable early on in coastal storms or S-N moving systems which have a NE drainage flow ahead of them.  You’ll see places like ISP/MMU snowing like crazy while between it can take 2 hours or more to get solid snow growth and decent rates though the radar may look good.  12/19/09 saw this happen  

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